May WTI crude oil (CLK23) this morning is up +0.79 (+1.06%), and May RBOB gasoline (RBJ23) is up +3.74 (+1.42%). May Nymex natural gas (NGK23) is up +0.100 (+4.75%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices this morning are moderately higher. Crude prices have support on reduced global oil supplies as 400,000 bpd of Iraqi crude exports remain idled. Also, stronger-than-expected Chinese manufacturing and service sector activity shows strength in China's economy, supporting energy demand and crude prices. However, a stronger dollar today is limiting gains in crude.
May nat-gas prices this morning recovered from early losses and are sharply higher on the outlook for cooler April U.S. weather that will boost heating demand for nat-gas. Updated weather forecasts from NOAA show that below-normal temperatures are expected for the central and eastern U.S. from April 6-10.
Today's stronger-than-expected Chinese economic news shows growth in China's economy that is bullish for energy demand and crude prices. The China Mar manufacturing PMI fell -0.7 to 51.9, stronger than expectations of 51.5. Also, the Mar non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +1.9 to 58.2, stronger than expectations of a decline to 55.0 and the fastest pace of expansion in more than 11 years.
An easing of U.S. economic concerns is boosting energy prices today after the Feb core PCE deflator, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose less than expected. That bolsters speculation the Fed may be close to ending its rate-hike campaign.
Crude prices have carryover support on global supply concerns due to the ongoing halt of 400,000 bpd of oil exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The Iraqi government and Kurdish officials have yet to agree on the resumption of oil exports from Ceyhan, as Iraq says Turkey should not allow Kurdish oil to be exported from the Turkish port without Iraqi government approval. Iraq won an arbitration case last week from the International Chamber of Commerce that said Turkey violated a 1973 pipeline transit agreement by allowing crude from the Kurdish region to be exported without Iraqi government consent.
The outlook for stronger Chinese crude oil demand is bullish for prices. China National Petroleum Corp, the country's largest refiner, predicts that oil demand in China may expand this year by +5.1% to 756 MMT as the country emerges from the pandemic. However, oil demand in China has recently been weak. China car sales in Jan-Feb fell -9.4% y/y and international flights from China were at only 22% of pre-pandemic levels as of March 16.
In a bearish factor, Vortexa on Monday reported that the amount of crude stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week rose +6.9% w/w to 96.53 million bbl in the week ended March 24.
Rising crude demand in India is bullish for oil prices. Last Wednesday, India's oil ministry reported that India Feb crude oil imports rose +8.5% y/y to 19.1 MMT, the most in seven months.
On February 1, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee recommended keeping crude production levels steady as the oil market awaits clarity on demand in China and crude supplies from Russia. OPEC crude production in February rose by +120,000 bpd to 29.24 million bpd.
Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of March 24 were +5.7% above the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -4.6% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -8.7% below the 5-year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil production in the week ended March 24 fell -0.8% w/w to 12.2 million bpd, only 0.9 million bpd (-6.9%) below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended March 24 rose by +4 rigs to 593 rigs, moderately below the 2-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted on December 2. U.S. active oil rigs have more than tripled from the 17-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity.
