May WTI crude oil (CLK25) Wednesday closed up +1.17 (+1.86%), and May RBOB gasoline (RBK25) closed up +0.0190 (+0.94%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday rallied moderately. Wednesday's slide in the dollar (DXY00) was supportive of crude prices. Also, the prospects of de-escalating US-China trade tensions are positive for crude after China said it's open to US trade talks. Crude also garnered support from Wednesday's bullish EIA inventory report. Gains in crude were limited after the WTO cut its 2025 global trade estimate.
Crude prices found support Wednesday from a Bloomberg report that said China wants to see several steps from the Trump administration before it will agree to trade talks, including showing more respect by reining in disparaging remarks by members of his cabinet.
Crude also found support Wednesday from a stall in nuclear talks between the US and Iran, which reduces the potential of looser restrictions on Iranian crude. Iran's Foreign Minister said today that it won't be drawn into negotiations with the US over its ability to enrich uranium.
Wednesday's action by the World Trade Organization (WTO) to cut its 2025 global trade forecast is negative for energy demand and crude prices. The WTO now projects a -0.2% decline in global trade from a November forecast of up +3.0% and warned that if the US pushes ahead with reciprocal tariffs, global trade will contract at -1.5% this year.
Stronger crude demand in China, the world's largest crude importer, supports prices. Reuters reported Monday that China Mar crude imports rose to 12.1 million bpd, the highest since August 2023.
US-Iran nuclear talks raised the possibility of an eventual easing of export restrictions on Iranian crude and was bearish for oil prices. Weekend talks in Oman between Iranian and US negotiators on Iran's nuclear program were reported as "constructive," and both sides agreed to meet again in a week.
Goldman Sachs said Monday that global crude demand is being weighed down by the trade war and increased OPEC+ oil production, leading to "large surpluses" this year and next. Goldman projects the global oil markets will be in a surplus of 800,000 bpd in 2025 and climb to a +1.4 million bpd surplus in 2026.
Crude prices have been on the defensive over the past week and tumbled to a 4-year low last Wednesday. Tariff turmoil is weighing energy prices on concerns about weaker global economic growth and energy demand even after President Trump paused his reciprocal tariffs last Wednesday. Meanwhile, all the previously announced Trump tariffs remain in place except for the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs.
Crude prices have a negative carryover from April 3, when OPEC+ said it would boost crude production in May by 411,000 bpd, much more than the +138,000 bpd of crude production it added this month. OPEC+ is boosting output to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million bpd of production. OPEC+ had previously planned to restore production between January and late 2025, but now that production cut won't be fully restored until September 2026. OPEC Mar crude production rose +80,000 bpd to a 13-month high of 27.43 million bpd.
An increase in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bearish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days rose by +0.4% w/w to 65.72 million bbl in the week ended April 11.
Crude oil found support when the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control on March 20 sanctioned a China-based oil refinery and 19 entities and vessels tied to shipping Iranian crude oil. The US is applying pressure to Iranian crude exports after President Trump recently sent a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei that said Iran has a two-month deadline to reach a new nuclear deal. According to Rystad Energy A/S, a maximum-pressure campaign could remove as much as 1.5 million bpd of Iranian crude exports from global markets, a bullish factor for crude.
Crude prices are being supported by tensions in the Middle East, which could lead to disruption of crude supplies from the region. Israel continues to launch airstrikes across Gaza, ending a nearly two-month ceasefire with Hamas, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed to act "with increasing military strength" to free hostages and disarm Hamas. In addition, the US has launched strikes on Yemen's Houthi rebels, and Defense Secretary Hegseth said strikes would be "unrelenting" until the group stops attacking vessels in the Red Sea.
In a supportive factor for crude oil prices, the US on January 10 imposed new sanctions on Russia's oil industry that could curb global oil supplies. The measures targeted Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftgas, which exported about 970,000 bpd of Russian crude in the first 10 months of 2024, accounting for about 30% of its tanker flow, according to Bloomberg data. The US also targeted insurers and traders linked to hundreds of tanker cargoes. Russian oil product exports in March rose to a 5-month high of 3.45 million bpd, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from analytics firm Vortexa. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports rose by +40,000 bpd w/w to 3.07 million bpd in the week to March 30.
Wednesday's weekly EIA report is supportive of crude and products. EIA crude inventories rose +515,000 bbl, below expectations of +950,000. Also, EIA gasoline supplies fell -1.96 million bl, a larger draw than expectations of -1.71 million bbl. In addition, EIA distillate stockpiles fell -1.85 million bbl to a 16-month low, a larger draw than expectations of -1.14 million bbl. Finally, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, fell 0654,000 bbl.
Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of April 11 were -5.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -0.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -10.2% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending April 11 was unchanged w/w to 13.462 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd from the week of December 6.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending April 11 fell -9 to 480 rigs, moderately above the 3-year low of 472 rigs posted on January 24. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past two years from the 4-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
