Oct WTI crude oil (CLV24) today is down -2.88 (-3.92%), and Oct RBOB gasoline (RBV24) is down -9.40 (-4.49%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices today are sharply lower, with crude falling to a 7-1/2 month low and gasoline falling to an 8-1/2 month low. Today's rally in the dollar index to a 2-week high is bearish for energy prices. Also, global energy demand concerns weighed on crude prices after Chinese and US manufacturing activity contracted more than expected. Losses in crude oil accelerated today after a Libyan central banker said that a deal appears imminent to resume the country's crude oil production.
Today's global economic news was bearish for energy demand and crude prices. The US Aug ISM manufacturing index rose +0.4 to 47.2, weaker than expectations of 47.5. The Aug ISM price paid sub-index unexpectedly rose +1.1 to 54.0 versus expectations of a decline to 52.0. Also, US July construction spending unexpectedly fell -0.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.1% m/m increase and the biggest decline in 1-3/4 years. In addition, the China Aug manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell -0.3 to a 6-month low of 49.1, weaker than expectations of an increase to 49.5.
Crude oil prices were undercut today after Libyan central bank governor Sadiq Al-Kibir said there are "strong" indications that political factions are nearing an agreement to overcome political differences and resume the country's crude oil production. Last week, Libya's eastern government declared force majeure on all oil fields, terminals, and crude export facilities as it called for a halt to all crude production and exports due to political conflict over who controls the country's central bank and oil revenues. The halt to Libya's crude exports threatened to remove more than 1 million bpd of crude from the global market.
Oil prices have support from concern that an escalation of conflict in the Middle East could disrupt oil supplies. Israel's military continues to conduct operations in Gaza, and there is the continued risk that the war might spread to Hezbollah in Lebanon or even to a direct conflict with Iran. Meanwhile, ongoing attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels have forced shippers to divert shipments around the southern tip of Africa instead of going through the Red Sea, disrupting global crude oil supplies.
In a bearish factor, increased Russian crude exports have boosted global supplies. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports rose by +390,000 bpd to 3.35 million bpd in the week to August 25, the highest in nearly two months. Meanwhile, increased Russian crude production is also negative for oil prices after Russia's Energy Ministry reported last Friday that Russia's July crude production was 9.045 million bpd, about 67,000 bpd above the output target it agreed to with OPEC+.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -14% w/w to 52.99 million bbl in the week ended August 30, the lowest in 4-1/2 years.
OPEC+ rolled out a plan to restore some crude production in Q4, which sparked worries about a glut in global oil supplies. On June 2, OPEC+ extended the 2 million bpd of voluntary crude production cuts into Q3 but said they would gradually phase out the cuts over the following 12 months, beginning in October. OPEC pledged to extend its crude production cap at about 39 million bpd to the end of 2025. Also, the UAE was given a 300,000 bpd boost to its production target for 2025. In June, OPEC crude production fell -80,000 bpd to 26.98 million bpd.
Last Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of August 23 were -3.8% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -3.3% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -9.9% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending August 23 fell -0.7% w/w to 13.3 million bpd, falling back from the previous week's record high of 13.4 million bpd.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending August 30 were unchanged at 483 rigs, modestly above the 2-1/2 year low of 477 rigs posted in the week ending July 19. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past year from the 4-year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
