May WTI crude oil (CLK23) this morning is up +0.31 (+0.38%), and May RBOB gasoline (RBJ23) is down -1.40 (-0.50%). May Nymex natural gas (NGK23) is up +0.061 (+2.68%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices this morning are mixed, with gasoline falling to a 2-week low. A weaker dollar today is bullish for energy prices. Also, signs of strength in China's economy are supportive of energy demand and crude prices. However, crude oil prices were undercut by hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard, who said he favored additional rate hikes from the Fed.
May nat-gas this morning extended Monday's sharp rally to a 3-week high. The outlook for colder temperatures in the U.S. that will boost heating demand for nat-gas is bullish for prices. The Commodity Weather Group said colder to much colder-than-normal weather is seen across the eastern half of the U.S. from April 23-27.
Today's economic news showed signs of strength in Chin's economy that was bullish for energy demand. China Q1 GDP rose +4.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of +4.0% y/y. Also, China Mar retail sales rose +10.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of +7.5% y/y and the largest increase in 1-3/4 years. In addition, the China Mar jobless rate fell -0.3 to a 7-month low of 5.3%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 5.5%.
Hawkish comments today from St. Louis Fed President Bullard signal he favors additional Fed rate hikes that could slow the economy and energy demand when he said the Fed should keep raising interest rates after recent data showed inflation remains persistent.
Weakness in the crude crack spread is bearish for oil prices. The crack spread today dropped to a 1-3/4 month low, discouraging refiners from purchasing crude to refine into gasoline and distillates.
Signs of weakness in global diesel demand signal an economic slowdown that is bearish for crude prices. According to data tracked by China's Ministry of Transport, the number of trucks running on Chinese highways fell -8% w/w in the week ended April 9. Also, U.S. diesel demand is on track to contract -2% this year, according to S&P Global, which would be the biggest drop in U.S. diesel demand in 7 years, not counting the 2020 pandemic year.
In a bullish factor, Vortexa reported Monday that the amount of crude stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -17% w/w to 95.6 million bbl in the week ended April 14.
Strength in Chinese crude demand is bullish for prices. China's General Administration of Customs reported last Thursday that China's Mar crude imports rose +16% m/m to 52.31 MMT (12.37 million bpd), the highest level since June 2020. China's crude imports year-to-date are up +6.7% y/y at 136.369 MMT.
The ongoing halt of Iraqi crude exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan is tightening global oil supplies and is bullish for crude prices. The Turkish government said it wants to negotiate a $1.5 billion settlement that it has been ordered to pay before allowing Iraqi crude exports to resume through its pipeline. Oil exports of 400,000 bpd from the Turkish port of Ceyhan have been halted since March 25 after Iraq won an arbitration case from the International Chamber of Commerce that said Turkey violated a 1973 pipeline transit agreement by allowing crude from the Kurdish region to be exported without Iraqi government consent.
Crude prices surged on April 3 after OPEC+ announced a surprise oil production cut of more than 1 million bpd starting May 1. Saudi Arabia said the cuts were a "precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market." OPEC Mar crude production fell by -80,000 bpd to 29.16 million bpd.
Last Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of April 7 were +2.8% above the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -6.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -11.6% below the 5-year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil production in the week ended April 7 rose +0.8% w/w to 12.3 million bpd, only 0.8 million bpd (-6.1%) below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended April 14 fell by -2 rigs to a nearly 10-month low of 588 rigs, moderately below the 2-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted on December 2. U.S. active oil rigs have more than tripled from the 17-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
