May WTI crude oil (CLK23) this morning is up +0.71 (+0.98%), and May RBOB gasoline (RBJ23) is up +2.60 (+0.98%). April Nymex natural gas (NGJ23) is down -0.006 (-0.29%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices this morning extended Monday's sharp rally to 2-week highs. Dollar weakness today is supportive of energy prices. Also, a legal dispute between Iraq, Kurdistan, and Turkey has halted 400,000 bpd of crude flows, tightening global crude supplies.
Apr nat-gas this morning extended Monday's losses to a new 5-week low. The main bearish factor is the outlook for mild U.S. weather that would reduce heating demand for nat-gas. The Commodity Weather Group said that above-normal temperatures are seen in the eastern half of the U.S. from April 1-11.
Crude prices garnered support after the Iraqi government and Kurdish officials failed to agree on the resumption of around 400,000 bpd of oil exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan, as Iraq said Turkey should not allow Kurdish oil to be exported from the Turkish port without Iraqi government approval. Iraq won an arbitration case last week from the International Chamber of Commerce that said Turkey violated a 1973 pipeline transit agreement by allowing crude from the Kurdish region to be exported without Iraqi government consent.
The outlook for stronger Chinese crude oil demand is bullish for prices. China National Petroleum Corp, the country's largest refiner, predicts that oil demand in China may expand this year by +5.1% to 756 MMT as the country emerges from the pandemic. However, oil demand in China has recently been weak. China car sales in Jan-Feb fell -9.4% y/y and international flights from China were at only 22% of pre-pandemic levels as of March 16.
In a bearish factor, Vortexa on Monday reported that the amount of crude stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week rose +6.9% w/w to 96.53 million bbl in the week ended March 24.
Rising crude demand in India is bullish for oil prices. Last Wednesday, India's oil ministry reported that India Feb crude oil imports rose +8.5% y/y to 19.1 MMT, the most in seven months.
On February 1, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee recommended keeping crude production levels steady as the oil market awaits clarity on demand in China and crude supplies from Russia. OPEC crude production in February rose by +120,000 bpd to 29.24 million bpd.
Last Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of March 17 were +7.6% above the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -4.0% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -8.8% below the 5-year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil production in the week ended March 17 rose +0.8% w/w to 12.3 million bpd, matching a 2-3/4 year high and only 0.8 million bpd (-6.1%) below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended March 24 rose by +4 rigs to 593 rigs, moderately below the 2-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted on December 2. U.S. active oil rigs have more than tripled from the 17-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
