Consumer confidence and new home sales weighed on the market last week, while GDP came in largely in line with expectations. The S&P 500 ($SPX) (SPY) ended the week own just 0.68% despite a reasonably large drop on Thursday. Tesla (TSLA) was +2.18% and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) rallied after being awarded a new $250 million Army contract. Apple (AAPL) continued its recent struggles and was down 2.05% for the week.
We’ll see some key data releases this week as well as some potentially market-moving news. Here are 5 things to watch in the market this week.
ISM Manufacturing PMI
ISM Manufacturing PMI is due out on Monday at 10am. This report is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies across the United States. A PMI above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing segment of the economy compared to the previous month. The ISM reading last month was 47.6, up from 46.4. Will the report show a further increase in activity, or will we head lower again? The ISM Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 since December 2022.
Services PMI
This report is due on Wednesday at 9:45am. The data are based on surveys of over 400 executives in private sector service companies. The surveys cover transport and communication, financial intermediaries, business and personal services, computing & IT, hotels and restaurants. Like the ISM PMI, a reading below 50 indicates a deterioration. The prior release showed a reading of 50.5 and this months report is forecast at 50.2. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD.
Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil inventories are due out at 10:30 on Wednesday. Oil has been a big story in recent months with Crude oil prices jumping from $70 in July to over $90 currently. Could we see $100 crude this week? If the increase in crude oil inventories is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. Crude oil prices can have a big impact on inflation figures. Keep an eye on this report and it could impact equity prices this week.
Initial Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the most timely U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. The report is due out at 8:30am on Thursday. Last week, the report came in below forecast at 204K and continued strength in the job market could provide a boost to struggling equity markets.
Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate is due out at 8:30am on Friday. Last month, the report came in higher than expected (3.8% vs 3.5%). Bullish investors will want to see the unemployment rate drop back down as a higher than expected reading could signal that the economy is slowing.
Best of luck this week and don’t forget to check out my daily options article.
On the date of publication, Gavin McMaster did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
