May WTI crude oil (CLK23) this morning is up +1.22 (+1.67%), and May RBOB gasoline (RBJ23) is up +0.50 (+0.19%). May Nymex natural gas (NGK23) is down -0.070 (-3.21%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices this morning are moderately higher. Dollar weakness today is pushing energy prices higher. Also, today's rally in the S&P 500 to a 3-1/2 week high bolsters confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand and is positive for crude prices.
May nat-gas this morning is moderately lower after weekly EIA nat-gas inventories fell less than expected. The EIA reported that nat-gas inventories fell -47 bcf last week, less than expectations of -54 bcf. Nat-gas prices are also lower on warmer U.S. weather that would curb heating demand after forecaster Maxar Technologies said above-normal temperatures are expected for the eastern U.S. from April 4-8.
Crude prices have carryover support on global supply concerns due to the ongoing halt of 400,000 bpd of oil exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The Iraqi government and Kurdish officials have yet to agree on the resumption of oil exports from Ceyhan, as Iraq says Turkey should not allow Kurdish oil to be exported from the Turkish port without Iraqi government approval. Iraq won an arbitration case last week from the International Chamber of Commerce that said Turkey violated a 1973 pipeline transit agreement by allowing crude from the Kurdish region to be exported without Iraqi government consent.
The outlook for stronger Chinese crude oil demand is bullish for prices. China National Petroleum Corp, the country's largest refiner, predicts that oil demand in China may expand this year by +5.1% to 756 MMT as the country emerges from the pandemic. However, oil demand in China has recently been weak. China car sales in Jan-Feb fell -9.4% y/y and international flights from China were at only 22% of pre-pandemic levels as of March 16.
Weakness in the crude crack spread is bearish for oil prices. The crack spread today fell to a 2-1/2 week low, which discourages refiners from purchasing crude oil to refine it into gasoline and distillates.
In a bearish factor, Vortexa on Monday reported that the amount of crude stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week rose +6.9% w/w to 96.53 million bbl in the week ended March 24.
Rising crude demand in India is bullish for oil prices. Last Wednesday, India's oil ministry reported that India Feb crude oil imports rose +8.5% y/y to 19.1 MMT, the most in seven months.
On February 1, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee recommended keeping crude production levels steady as the oil market awaits clarity on demand in China and crude supplies from Russia. OPEC crude production in February rose by +120,000 bpd to 29.24 million bpd.
Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of March 24 were +5.7% above the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -4.6% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -8.7% below the 5-year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil production in the week ended March 24 fell -0.8% w/w to 12.2 million bpd, only 0.9 million bpd (-6.9%) below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended March 24 rose by +4 rigs to 593 rigs, moderately below the 2-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted on December 2. U.S. active oil rigs have more than tripled from the 17-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
