NSW Labor will face an unpalatable dilemma if the Tim Crakanthorp scandal results in the Newcastle MP quitting politics.
Premier Chris Minns granted Crakanthorp a stay of execution last week when he backtracked on an earlier pledge to expel the embattled former minister from the party if ICAC launched an investigation into whether he substantially breached the ministerial code of conduct by withholding information about his in-laws' Hunter property interests.
In hindsight, that pledge was largely meaningless because ICAC was bound to start a preliminary investigation once the Premier referred the matter to the corruption watchdog.
Minns last week clarified that he would seek Crakanthorp's removal from the party if ICAC progressed its inquiries to "the next stage".
The Premier sacked Crakanthorp from cabinet early last month for failing to adequately declare some of his extended family's properties in his ministerial disclosures.
Two Sydney media outlets piled on the pressure this week with allegations that Crakanthorp had asked his staff how to keep his extended family's interests away from the media and had withheld the extent of that portfolio while asking Mr Minns to let him keep lobbying for the multibillion-dollar Hunter Park project.
Crakanthorp appears to be hanging on by a thread in the party. If he is forced permanently to the crossbench, it remains to be seen whether he would step out of Parliament altogether.
There is no doubt Labor HQ is gaming out such a scenario and what to do in the event of a by-election.
The party has a ready-made candidate in Newcastle lord mayor Nuatali Nelmes, who has the profile and ballot-box record to justify a captain's pick from Minns.
She won the 2021 mayoral vote 60-40 over independent John Church as Labor unexpectedly retained its six ward councillors.
Labor will expect a tough challenge from the Greens at a by-election, which are notoriously difficult for incumbent parties to win.
The dilemma for NSW Labor will be whether to hold what in all likelihood would be a bloody preselection contest or bypass a rank-and-file vote in favour of simply nominating Nelmes from head office.
Party sources say the lord mayor may lack numerical support in the branches that would decide a pre-selection battle, but few rivals appear to offer the same prominence and electoral appeal.
Newcastle's six other Labor councillors are considered loyal to Nelmes.
The other party member regarded as a possible candidate is Wickham branch assistant secretary Simonne Pengelly, a delegate to the Newcastle state and federal electorate councils, a member of the Labor economics policy and administrative committees and a former staffer to federal MPs Sharon Claydon and Sharon Grierson.
If the recent warfare between Wallsend MP Sonia Hornery and Newcastle's Labor councillors is any guide, a branch preselection process would be lively, to say the least.
Head office may well want a cleaner process, but branch members will point to the precedent of a rank-and-file preselection contest between Crakanthorp and Nelmes before the 2014 by-election.
If Nelmes is elevated to state politics, she likely would hand over the mayoral reins to her deputy, Declan Clausen.
Electoral rules say that when a casual vacancy occurs in the office of a popularly elected mayor, the opening is filled by way of a by-election unless it occurs within 18 months of the next ordinary election.
The next council elections are in September next year.
Crakanthorp may yet survive the ICAC inquiry with his party membership intact, or he may resolve to remain in Macquarie Street as an independent at least until the next election if necessary.
But you can be sure the possibility of his premature departure has activated the imaginations of more than a few party operatives.
