Last week was a short week with Good Friday which means the closing print Thursday was where the party ended for retail investors. The S&P 500 ($SPX) (SPY) was -0.05% for the shortened week with the rest of the market being a mixed bag. Tesla (TSLA) finished down over 10%, while Apple (AAPL) barely squeezed out a green week. There was also a bit of peculiarity to last week's shortened schedule, and that's that non-farm payroll came out on Friday anyway. So, with most participants out of the market, it's possible the opening on Sunday/Monday will produce a little volatility as everyone digests the news.
There is plenty of excitement still on tap for this week, we have a plethora of Fed speakers, the FOMC on Wednesday, an IMF meeting, and much more. Here are Five things to watch in the markets this week.
Bank Holidays
Many European countries observe Easter Monday as the Holiday as opposed to Good Friday like the US does. This could, and most likely will, result in lower than usual trading volumes in US markets. This is especially true in the futures markets, but may also spill over into the options and equities markets.
IMF Meeting
It's possible for the IMF meeting to create some volatility in the US markets this week as they have one of the semi-annual meetings to discuss policy, stance, and formal objectives. The meeting details are usually released after the week-long meeting has concluded, but there are many options for officials to talk with reporters throughout the day. Often times both these comments and the formal meeting minutes cause movement in the markets.
CPI
Wednesday is a busy day for news in the US. First up there is CPI at 8:30 am Eastern time. The numbers have been coming in pretty much at the forecasted rate as of late, I suppose that's no surprise, but the rates are still fairly high on an overall basis. A surprise in either direction could produce a very tradable move in the markets overall. Last week the market seemed to be back to treating good news as good and bad news as bad, so it will be interesting to see how it trades the CPI on Wednesday
Fed Meeting Minutes.
Also on Wednesday at 2 pm Eastern is the release of the Fed Meeting Minutes from the most recent Fed meeting. While we already know what they plan on setting the rate at, this report gives more insight into their decision-making process(if you want to call it that). This report often creates some short-term volatility as market participants digest what is in the report.
Retail Sales
There is some other Inflation related news due out on Thursday as well as Unemployment claims, and while this information is important Retail sales on Friday at 8:30 am Eastern also has the potential to move the market. This report also has some additional insight into the mind of the consumers that goes beyond CPI and PPI, it shows how much they are actually spending. In addition to the topline number that is reported, it's also becoming important to see the internals of the report and look for actual quantities of product and not just percentage change. With everything costing significantly more lately, it's possible that the higher retail sales number is providing false hope of a soft landing because you are spending more money on less goods.
Best of luck this week and don’t forget to check out my daily options article.
On the date of publication, Gavin McMaster did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
