I’m on the road now, so the 2024 NFL season is (unofficially) underway! And so, too, is the resumption of the mailbag …
From William Cook (@obiwill_kenobi): Will CeeDee Lamb be paid by the end of camp?
William, yes, he will be. He’s not there now and that almost by definition makes his contract situation the most urgent of those facing the Dallas Cowboys during the early days of training camp.
The reality is Dallas made this bed for itself. There’s a reason why the Philadelphia Eagles (DeVonta Smith), Detroit Lions (Amon-Ra St. Brown), Miami Dolphins (Jaylen Waddle) and Houston Texans (Nico Collins) moved so aggressively to get their young receivers signed. They knew what was coming, and when the Justin Jefferson extension did come, the numbers should’ve surprised exactly no one. He had a right to ask to be the highest-paid nonquarterback in the NFL, and he earned that distinction by getting $1 million more per year than Nick Bosa did last summer.
The key word there? Last. Summer. The Bosa contract was out there then, at $34 million per year. That Jefferson landed $35 million per year was, well, predictable. And while Lamb hasn’t accomplished what his draft classmate has in Minnesota, he did amass 135 catches, 1,749 yards and a dozen touchdowns last year, putting him well within his rights at 25 years old to ask for something closer to Jefferson than Smith, St. Brown, Waddle or Collins.
Again, that’s the situation Dallas put itself in by waiting, same as the situation the Cowboys now find themselves in with Dak Prescott after Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence got contracts averaging around $55 million per year. And what are the Cowboys going to do? Not sign Lamb, and leave Prescott and Mike McCarthy in the lurch in their own contract years.
No way. So, yeah, I think the Cowboys get this done, because they always wind up getting these things done. It just didn’t have to be this painful, or cost what it’ll wind up costing.
From cstaneluis (@cstaneluis): Albert—Do you expect the NFL to expand the number of games in Europe before they expand the season to 18 games?
C-Stan, I’d say, for right now, one of those elements is dependent on the next, with both accomplishing the same goal for the league: money.
Going to 18 games is essentially a way to create new inventory to sell back to their broadcast partners. The more real estate you have to sell, and more ways you have to generate prime real estate to sell at a higher price, the more money you’ll make, and going to 18 games would grow the NFL’s holdings on both counts.
And while the league would do all of this yesterday if it could, there is a big checkpoint looming, with opt-outs in the current broadcast deals after 2029. Presumably, the NFL would want to have its refurbished neighborhood ready for market ahead of those talks.
So that’s the first piece to this puzzle. The second—increasing the number of international games—is easier to pull off with more inventory. As it’s set up right now, the league requires every team give up at least one home game every eight years, which fills, at a minimum, four games each year. The fifth game comes from the Jaguars’ long-standing deal to play at Wembley in London every year. That means each team gets, in an eight-season rotation on a 17-game schedule, three seasons with nine home games.
Those home dates are tough to give up. But if you have nine home dates every year—which you would with an 18-game schedule—rather than every other year? Then giving up a home date becomes a little more palatable. And that’s where it gets a little easier for the NFL to try and push its International Series from five to seven or eight or 10 games.
From JD Brown (@JDBrownWrites): With the NFL and NFLPA reportedly discussing an 18-game schedule, what changes, if any, could you see to the logistics for NFL rosters? Increasing roster sizes? Increased revenue sharing? Multiple bye weeks?
JD, this is another thing that comes down to money. The problem with expanding rosters is simple math. The players get a certain cut of the revenue and going to 57 players or 60 players on the roster means slicing that percentage up more ways. Multiple bye weeks have, over the last 20 years or so, been a nonstarter for broadcast partners, because it seriously waters down the Sunday windows, and those windows are being plucked from now more than ever. And I don’t know what increased revenue sharing would do to help.
Also, I’d say the NFL’s actually set itself up nicely for this by keeping the COVID-19 provisions in place, with expanded practice squads leaving teams more well-positioned to deal with the natural attrition that might come with a longer, more grueling season.
From Rick Murphy (@rickm127): Will Washington be the surprise team this year?
Rick, that’s a good question.
One thing I like about where the Commanders stand is there’s a fair level of mystery in how they’ll play in 2024. Fans in D.C. are pretty familiar with that dynamic being supercharged by a great athlete at quarterback—they got to see Robert Griffin III put on a season-long show with Kyle Shanahan constructing an offense the NFL hadn’t seen for him in '12. And while that was short-lived for a variety of reasons, the reasons for the explosion were sound.
They had a really good offensive coach who studied the college game hard to build the right scheme. They had the element of surprise. They had the triggerman to pull it off.
Twelve years later, they have a coordinator in Kliff Kingsbury who is as steeped in the spread offense as any coach in the league. They have a supernova athlete taking snaps, in second pick Jayden Daniels. They have a lot of teams guessing on what this will all look like five years after Kingsbury was charged with doing the same thing with Kyler Murray. For that reason, I’m really excited to see what they do in the short-term on offense.
Defensively, they have work to do. The edge positions are real questions with Chase Young and Montez Sweat gone. Corner needs work, and a couple of young guys to grow up fast. And it’s really hard to be great on defense in this day and age when you have issues in those two areas. But Dan Quinn’s pulling the strings, and so I think it’ll be a competitive group.
I think the goal for the Commanders would be to ride out early bumps, and finish the season strong. I could see that putting the team around .500 when all is said and done, which would be huge in Year 1 for Quinn and general manager Adam Peters.
From Mark Cordeiro (@OriginalGreenie): Any chance that J.K. Dobbins wins the starting job [with the Chargers]?
Mark, first of all, you’re excused for calling the Chargers “San Diego”—Every time I’ve done that, I feel like my dad calling the Colts “Baltimore” (he did it throughout my childhood even though they moved to Indianapolis when I was four). Second, yes, I believe there is a path to Dobbins being the starting tailback in Los Angeles, and I think he’ll have a big role in Jim Harbaugh’s first Charger offense regardless.
Running backs who play for the Harbaughs always get plenty of work, and that was one big plus for the Chargers in plucking both Dobbins and Gus Edwards away from the other branch of the family business in Baltimore. Those guys both know the vision for the offense and, health permitting, both figure to be major stakeholders in it.
From Broadway Jay (@_BroadwayJay): Does Drake Maye start Week 1?
Jay, I’d say no. He’s made progress, and he’s clearly the Patriots’ most gifted quarterback. But, as the staff saw it going into training camp, Maye is still immersed working on fundamentals from the ground up. For example, he’s been almost exclusively a shotgun quarterback, so he had almost no classic footwork training before this spring. Getting fixes for that stuff is going to take time.
Between OC Alex Van Pelt, Ben McAdoo and T.C. McCartney, New England has a good group of guys working with Maye, and a group that I see as committed to creating a new set of sustainable habits in Maye. Be patient with it.
For those reasons, I think the earliest he starts is probably around Halloween, barring an injury to Jacoby Brissett pushing him onto the field earlier.
From Ryan Jay (@ItsRyanJohnJay): How is the Brandon Aiyuk saga going to get resolved? Contract extension or 5th yr option?
Ryan, I think it gets resolved with an extension, maybe $120 million over four new years, with the existing fifth-year option folded in. And I think at that point, the Niners get calls on Deebo Samuel, and it’d be interesting to see how they’d react to those, given the win-now situation they’re in.
From Mitch Beiter (@MitchBeiter91): Who are your 2025 HC candidates to watch for?
Mitch, I’ll give you eight—Detroit Lions OC Ben Johnson, Buffalo Bills OC Joe Brady, Cincinnati Bengals DC Lou Anarumo, Texans OC Bobby Slowik, Eagles OC Kellen Moore, New York Giants OC Mike Kafka, Lions DC Aaron Glenn and Carolina Panthers DC Ejiro Evero—and that’s without getting into second-chance guys or folks in the college ranks. Or Bill Belichick for that matter.
So maybe this won’t be the most fertile crop. But there are some good names in that mix.
From Mike Bell (@MIKEPCFL): Who do you think is the most unfairly critiqued player in the league?
Mike, Derek Carr is one name to consider—that guy has overcome a lot of tough circumstances, and remains a really good starting quarterback as he heads into his second decade as an NFL player. I’m not sure Josh Allen gets the credit he deserves, and that especially goes for last year when he had to put the Bills on his back. And I go back and forth on Lamar Jackson. I do think it’s fair to hold him to a higher standard based on his ability, but it’s also clear a lot of fans don’t get his game.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Cowboys Will Have to Make CeeDee Lamb the Highest-Paid Nonquarterback.
