Covid-19 is surging faster than previously thought as new variants show signs of avoiding immunity.
New analysis shows infections increased by a quarter in England last week, double the rate previously thought, amid fears of a devastating winter surge.
A report by the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group shows cases rose 26% in the latest week for which data is available.
Hospital beds occupied where Covid is the primary diagnosis grew by 46%.
Numbers of people testing positive in hospitals are highest in the South East -up 64% -and the Midlands -up 58% -over the same period.
Genetic analysis shows two Omicron subvariants – BA.2.75.2 derived from BA.2, and BQ1.1 derived from BA.5 – are showing signs of being able to escape the immune system.
Prof Denis Kinane, an immunologist at Cignpost Diagnostics said: “The rise of the Omicron BA.2.75.2, nicknamed Centaurus, is somewhat alarming as it seems to be transmitted rapidly across countries, especially the US and Western Europe
“The BQ.1.1 has been identified in multiple countries around the globe.
“Both variants have shown striking characteristics of convergent evolution, exhibiting changes in the viral genome that influence the efficacy of neutralising antibodies built up from vaccination and prior infection.
“A recent study in Sweden, albeit one that has not been peer-reviewed, has stated that this strain is evading all available antibody treatments.
“While cases are currently on their way up, we do not yet know the full extent of what is coming in autumn and winter.”
The report analysed data by the Office for National Statistics published on Friday which estimated more than a million Brits now have Covid.
Its random swab testing report found 1.1 million people would have tested positive in the week up to September 17.
It is the highest number since August and up 14% from the previous week, driven by rises in England and Wales.
The report by the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group of insurance experts and epidemiologists said: “Latest (ONS) data shows that rates are generally increasing, although there is some volatility in the devolved administrations’ figures that limit the reliance that can be taken on weekly variations. Northern Ireland appears the outlier, having fallen over the last month.
“Whilst the figure for England has only risen by 11% this week, to 1.6%, this doesn’t reflect the true picture, as the data was only rolled forward 3 days, so 11% reflects 3 days of growth.
“Looking at the daily estimates up to 17 Sep (the latest date) shows a weekly increase of 26%.”
Prof Lawrence Young, of Warwick University, told the Independent he would like to see a return of widespread mask wearing in confined public spaces.
He said: “The biggest concern we’re seeing is that in early data these variants are starting to cause a slight increase in infections.
He warned that the downscaling of Covid testing labs as part of the Tories’ Living with Covid plan means the UK is “blind” to the behaviour of new potential variants of concern.
Major NHS “Lighthouse” labs closed earlier this year in line with the government’s policy on the infection.
“We’ve really taken our eye off the ball with Covid tests,” he said.
“We can only detect variants or know what’s coming by doing sequencing from PCR testing, and that’s not going on anywhere near the extent it was a year ago.
“People are going to get various infections over the winter but won’t know what they are because free tests aren’t available.”
Only a third of over-75s have received their autumn booster with fewer participating NHS centres than in earlier stages of the Covid-19 vaccine rollout.
Around 15% of over-50s have had their booster.
Prof Jonathan Ball, of Nottingham University, said: “I’m not convinced that a general push for mask wearing will have a major impact.
“The data shows that effectiveness is modest and very much depends on the quality of the mask being worn.
“I think it much more prudent to ensure that vaccine and booster uptake is maximised as we know this protects the majority from serious disease, and to ensure the most vulnerable have easy and quick access to regular testing and effective treatment.”
Prof Kinane added: “The lack of a testing framework in the UK remains a concern as it limits the UK’s visibility on the virus’ behaviour and its prevalence in the population.
“It also makes detecting the emergence and spread of new variants difficult to identify and effectively contain.”
It came as NHS England on Monday announced it had now delivered more than 4.5 million Autumn Covid booster jabs.
Many are getting them during the same appointment as their flu jab amid fears of a coming ‘twindemic’.
Vaccination director Steve Russell, said: “The NHS is leaving no stone unturned in its mission to stop the potential ‘twindemic’ this winter.
“The vaccine is still our best protection against this difficult virus and with the number of patients in hospital with Covid-19 on the rise once again.
“I urge anyone eligible for the autumn booster to book their latest dose without delay through the NHS website or by calling 119, and help protect yourself and your loved ones this winter.”
