The latest wave of Covid-19 may have peaked as the number of hospital patients in England testing positive is starting to fall, NHS data shows.
Figures from NHS England show the number of infections falling for the sixth day in a row, with a total of 12,529 people with coronavirus in hospital as of 25 July. This equates to an 11% drop from the previous week.
Patient numbers had been climbing through much of June and the first half of July, but the latest figures suggest this rise appears to have stopped after peaking at 14,044 on 18 July. This is slightly below the peaks reached during the two waves of infection earlier in the year.
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The latest estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show infection levels in England were still rising in mid-July - data from Public Health England showed the Liverpool City Region as having a week-on-week rise of 15% in the week ending July 9. More recent estimates are due to be published on Friday (29 July) and may show infections have started to level off.
The current wave of coronavirus is being driven by the subvariants Omicron BA.4 and BA.5, which are more transmissible than previous strains, but high levels of Covid antibodies among the population mean the number of people seriously ill or dying from the virus remains low. Hospital numbers during each of this year’s waves have never come close to matching the sort of figures seen in the pre-vaccine stage of the pandemic.
The recent peak of 14,044 patients is less than half of the 34,336 reached in January 2021, during the Alpha wave of infections. Separate ONS figures published on Tuesday show deaths involving coronavirus registered each week in England and Wales have risen for the fourth week in a row – but levels are still well below those reached in the earlier waves of the virus.
A total of 585 deaths registered in the seven days to 15 July mentioned Covid-19 on the death certificate. This is 38% higher than the previous week and is the highest number since the seven days to 13 May.
The upwards trend in death registrations reflects the recent rise in Covid-19 infections, but it is likely to be several weeks before the numbers peak and level off. This is because the trend in death figures always lags behind the equivalent trend in infections and hospital cases, due to the length of time between someone catching the virus and becoming seriously ill, plus the time it takes deaths to be reported and registered.
During the two waves earlier this year, weekly deaths in England and Wales peaked between 1,000 and 1,500, well below the peak of the Alpha wave in January 2021 when the weekly total reached almost 8,500. Overall, a total of 201,680 people in the UK have now had coronavirus recorded on their death certificate since the pandemic began, according to the ONS.
This includes all instances where Covid-19 has been mentioned on a certificate, either as a main cause of death or a contributory factor.
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