Christmas plans are unlikely to be cancelled due to Covid this year despite two new variants having emerged in the UK. Infections will continue to decline until January, modelling by University College London (UCL) has suggested, although they could rise again in the New Year.
Few, if any, restrictions are set to be put in place, therefore, during the Yuletide period with UCL professor Karl Friston telling the Sunday Telegraph: "The morbidity and mortality of a large post-Christmas wave should be substantially less than previous years. It looks as if the current peak has passed and the long-term forecast suggests a subsequent peak after Christmas.
"This appears to be largely driven by seasonal fluctuations in transmission risk and a slower underlying increase, due to the emergence of new variants." The UCL modelling has taken into account the new Omicron sub variants BQ1 and XBB, which were first seen in the UK last week, leading to predictions of a January wave.
Prof Karl added: "It appears that this wave will be larger in terms of prevalence, compared to previous waves, but less serious in terms of morbidity and death." After a spike in September, infections have slowed down over the past week, according to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data.
There was only a 2% rise in the number of people (2.05 million) testing positive during the week to October 17 from the seven days before. The number of hospitalisations was even more encouraging, as it dropped by 16 per cent in the same period.
Kara Steel, ONS senior statistician for the Covid-19 infection survey, remains cautious about the meaning of such figures, though, arguing: "It remains too early to say from the data whether we are seeing a turning point in the level of infections – which remain high across the countries."
The two new Covid strains are responsible for 700 cases in the UK. BQ1 has been detected in 65 countries including the US and XBB, which was first reported in India in August, has been witnessed in 35 different nations. XBB is also believed to boast an exceptional ability to evade the immunity acquired through vaccines or past infection.
A sore throat, meanwhile, is the most common current Covid symptom according to data from the ZOE Symptom Tracker app, which is based on Brits logging their symptoms regardless of how many jabs they have received. The top-20 list of recorded symptoms is:
1 Sore throat 63.55%
2 Runny nose 53.04%
3 Headache 53.02%
4 Blocked nose 52.47%
5 Cough no phlegm 52.06%
6 Sneezing 47.02%
7 Cough with phlegm 45.79%
8 Hoarse voice 43.86%
9 Muscle pain aches 29.46%
10 Fatigue 22.97%
11 Dizzy light headed 21.11%
12 Altered smell 19.82%
13 Swollen neck glands 17.72%
14 Eye soreness 16.41%
15 Chest pain tightness 16.26%
16 Shortness of breath 15.9%
17 Loss of smell 14.45%
18 Earache 13.96%
19 Chills or shivers 12.98%
20 Joint pain shoulders 11.08%
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