COVID-19 cases have surged in China since stringent restrictions were lifted earlier this month and, given the country's financial might, there are concerns about the possible impact on the global economy.
China began dismantling its zero-COVID policy of lockdowns and testing after people protested against the curbs which kept the virus at bay among its 1.4 billion-strong population — at a big cost to its economy, the world's second largest.
International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva said on Tuesday that the loosening of controls would also "create some difficulties over the next months".
That's because the inevitable spike in infections will render more people temporarily unable to participate in the labour force.
What do we know about COVID-19 cases in China?
Cases are soaring across China and hospitals are struggling to keep up, with authorities conceding they can no longer accurately track cases.
China's National Health Commission (NHC) has reported about 16,000 new COVID cases in the past week, but the World Health Organization (WHO) puts that figure closer to 150,000.
The WHO says it has received reports of 443 deaths in the week to Tuesday, compared to just seven reported officially by China.
"Many asymptomatic people are no longer participating in nucleic acid testing, so it is impossible to accurately grasp the actual number of asymptomatic infected people," the NHC said last week.
In Chongqing — a city of 30 million where authorities this week urged people with mild COVID symptoms to go to work — one worker told AFP their crematorium had run out of space to keep bodies.
"The number of bodies picked up in recent days is many times more than previously," a staffer said.
"We are very busy, there is no more cold storage space for bodies.
"We are not sure [if it's related to COVID], you need to ask the leaders in charge."
How is China's economy coping?
The World Bank has slashed China's growth forecasts and retail sales have plunged.
Official data released on Thursday showed retail sales were down in November when China saw some of its highest infection numbers recorded, but that was even before restrictions were eased.
"In November, local outbreaks spread to most provinces across the country, residents' travel decreased and consumption scenarios were restricted," Fu Jiaqi, a statistician from China's National Bureau of Statistics said.
"The sales of non-essential goods and gathering-based consumption were significantly affected."
Julian Evans-Pritchard and Zichun Huang, economists at Capital Economics, said while the move away from zero-COVID laid the groundwork for an eventual recovery in activity, the "transition period will prove quite disruptive".
The World Bank on Tuesday cut its China growth outlook for this year and next, citing the "ups and downs of the pandemic" alongside other factors including a shaky property sector.
Could the surge have a negative impact on the global economy?
There are divided opinions on this.
The United States has flagged concerns the surge will impact trade and supply chains to other countries.
Spokesperson for the US Department of State Ned Price said, given the size of China's economy, the "toll of the virus is of concern to the rest of the world".
US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo told Reuters on Tuesday that the US economy was "already being impacted" by China's latest COVID developments, as well as energy shortages in Europe.
But Professor Meijun Qian from the ANU College Of Business and Economics said it was important to remember there has been a history of tension between the US and China over trade.
She doesn't believe the impact of surging cases will be any worse for the global economy than the zero-COVID policy.
Professor Qian said any potential impact on the global economy would likely be short-lived, and easing restrictions would be a positive move for trade and supply chains long-term.
"It's always going to be better than zero-COVID where they restricted the movement of people and some people can't go to work at all," she said.
"Right now they are at least letting people go to work and school."
She said there was uncertainty around the impact on production and trade in China, and subsequently other economies, which will depend on how many people fall ill and the severity.
"It's on track to returning to normal [pre-COVID], but we don't know how smooth that will be," Professor Qian said.
Will Australia's economy be impacted?
Long-term, the easing of restrictions in China should be positive for trade with Australia and supply chains, Professor Qian said.
But, as she mentioned, it's hard to predict how surging COVID cases will serve as an interruption, and for how long.
China is Australia's largest two-way trading partner in goods and services.
Professor Qian said it was unlikely trade and supply between the countries would to return to pre-COVID levels within a few months.
She also said there was more at play than just COVID cases and restrictions.
"I think it's a long-term question of what Australia wants, whether it will develop its own economic strengths and also if it can be clearly playing a constructive role in the global political economy," Professor Qian said.
She said the appointment of former prime minister Kevin Rudd as Australia's new ambassador to the United States could have a positive impact on relations with China.
Trade concerns will also be raised by Foreign Minister Penny Wong when she meets with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during her current trip to the country.
