Coronavirus case numbers have plummeted across much of the U.S., including Texas, a promising sign that COVID-19 could finally be waning. But the pandemic is far from over, especially for older adults, people with disabilities and other vulnerable populations.
Plus, BA.2 and other variants or subvariants are still out there.
These are the six things we should keep an eye on in the months to come.
1. Second booster shot, COVID-19 vaccine for kids
There's not yet a vaccine authorized for children under 5 years old. Moderna announced Wednesday that it would ask regulators in the U.S. and Europe to authorize two shots for that age group in coming weeks, meaning they could be available by this summer. Pfizer is testing three shots for young kids, with results expected in early April.
What about second boosters? Pfizer and Moderna have both filed for emergency authorization for a second COVID-19 booster shot for people 65 and older. A decision could come as early as next month.
The Food and Drug Administration has to determine whether a fourth dose would increase protection from infection and severe illness that waned after the first booster.
If the virus continues to mutate after becoming endemic, however, we may need shots every year to fight those mutations.
2. Long COVID-19 symptoms, drugs and cures
Researchers and drugmakers are working to finding a cure for long COVID, a condition with 200 reported symptoms afflicting 100 million people.
Long COVID lasts longer than three months, with symptoms including fatigue, chest pain and brain fog.
A few clinical trials are currently underway to test long COVID drugs.
Researchers are trying to uncover the causes of long COVID, which will help to create new drugs and identify existing medicines. Possible underlying factors researchers are studying include damage from infection, lingering parts of virus in the body, an autoimmune response in which the immune system attacks its own cells, and excess inflammation that damages small blood vessels or nerves.
3. BA.2 subvariant of omicron, new COVID-19 variants
Variants are what drive surges in cases and hospitalizations. New COVID-19 variants are constantly emerging around the world. But what we don't know is — will one of them evade immunity, causing another pandemic surge?
Stealth omicron, or BA.2, was already 15% to 17% of COVID cases in North Texas in mid-March. Cases of the subvariant are doubling in the U.S. every week. And it's been blamed for infection surges in China and several European countries.
Most recently, deltacron, a mix between delta and omicron, has been found in at least 17 patients in the U.S. and Europe.
As variants pop up, we need to know how severe and contagious they are.
4. Measuring COVID-19 immunity
We don't know how long-lasting herd immunity — through vaccination or previous infection — will be.
According to a February CDC study, booster effectiveness wanes after four months. Booster protection against hospitalization was at 91% during the first two months. It fell to 78% by the fourth month after the booster.
If the U.S. achieves herd immunity, COVID-19 could become endemic, meaning the disease is relatively stable with seasonal surges. This coronavirus would be one of the respiratory viruses like the flu that circulate year to year.
To reach the endemic phase, about 95% of people will have to achieve immunity either through vaccination or through infection, experts say.
5. New COVID-19 treatments and drugs
There may be new ways to fight COVID-19 in the future. Treatments are in the pipeline to treat COVID-19 early, prevent hospitalization and fight more aggressive variants.
Polyclonal antibodies, a cocktail of multiple antibodies that targets different parts of the virus and could be effective against multiple variants, is in the trial phase at UT Southwestern.
Texas A&M researchers are studying a drug compound called MPI8 that they say can stop the virus from replicating in lab tests.
Scientists at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill are testing antiviral drug remdesivir in a pill form to understand how effective it is for treating COVID-19. Currently, you can only get it administered at the hospital through an IV.
6. COVID-19 wastewater and sewer data
COVID-19 wastewater surveillance serves as an early warning system for the emergence of coronavirus in communities before hospitalization and testing.
While Texas saw 39% fewer infections the past two weeks, according to The University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium, sewer data hints at the possibility of another COVID surge.
In that same period, virus levels found in wastewater increased at half of the Texas sewer sites supplying data.
