In the second quarter of a Monday Night Football showdown with the Buffalo Bills in Week 10, Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson bought time on fourth down and then tossed a pass to the back of the end zone toward wide receiver Courtland Sutton.
Sutton showed incredible concentration to secure the ball and drag his toes in bounds to complete the catch for a touchdown. From pass to catch, the play had a 3.2% probability of being completed, according to the NFL.
That makes Sutton’s catch the most improbable reception in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016), according to the league’s NGS Twitter/X page.
Russell Wilson's 7-yard touchdown pass to Courtland Sutton had a completion probability of 3.2%, the most improbable completion of the Next Gen Stats era.
🔹 Scramble Distance: 16.3 yds
🔹 Air Distance: 37.8 yds
🔹 Sideline Distance: -0.7 ydsPowered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/1rO4I6h7aR
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 14, 2023
Sutton, of course, deserves praise for his brilliant reception, but Wilson’s effort should not be overlooked. This certainly isn’t the first time Wilson has bought time to keep a play alive before throwing a touchdown pass.
In 2019, Wilson extended a play and then connected with Tyler Lockett in the back of the end zone for a touchdown that had a 5.3% completion probability.
The 2 most improbable completions in the @NextGenStats era:
1. @DangeRussWilson to @SuttonCourtland tonight.
2. Wilson to @TDLockett12 2019.@nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/yYFs7N68q0
— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) November 14, 2023
Wilson is a gamer and Sutton is a reliable red-zone target. That combination has led to good things for the Broncos’ offense.
