Well. Someone’s bank account just went up a few pant sizes.
Yes, the do-it-all pitcher/DH/home run king/probably really good baker/ better than you at all your hobbies Shohei Ohtani just signed a 10-year, $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Now if you excuse me, I’m going to grab one of those airplane sickness bags, because that amount of money is enough to make me throw up my bagel.
Over the last few years in the NFL, we’ve seen ginormous contracts dished out to the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow, to name a few. But what would it take for anyone to ever get an Ohtani-type contract?
If you look at Mahomes in particular. He signed a 10-year extension that was worth up to $450 million. Obviously, this was very heavy with incentives, but the two-time Super Bowl champion still got over $141 in total guaranteed money, and $63 million guaranteed at signing with an average base salary of $45 million. In terms of length, they are equal- that’s one stone down.
Now, since Mahomes’ contract is our closest comparison in terms of total potential money, let’s look at the leadup to him getting that deal.
In 2018, he won league MVP after throwing for 5,097 yards, 50 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions and led the Chiefs to the AFC Championship Game. However, don’t forget that if Dee Ford wasn’t offside, the Chiefs win on an interception and go to the Super Bowl. Regardless, the next season Mahomes threw for 4,031 yards, 26 touchdowns, and five interceptions in 14 games, and the Chiefs won the Super Bowl. That offseason, he signed the 10-year extension.
Now, time for some painful math.
The two-year span from 2018-20 earned Mahomes his record-breaking contract. In those two years, he threw for 9,128 yards, 76 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions across 30 regular season games. On a per-game basis, No. 15 averaged 304 yards, 2.5 touchdowns, and 0.5 interceptions.
Based on the total potential money from the contract, Mahomes was paid about $5.9 million per touchdown pass and roughly $49,300 per yard.
Therefore, if we are simply looking at this from a mathematics standpoint, a player would have to throw 119 touchdowns over a two-year span. Now, remember, Mahomes played 30 games in his first two seasons as a starter. If a quarterback were to remain fully healthy in their first two seasons today, they’d play 34 games. So instead of needing to average 3.95 touchdown passes per game over that span, it would come down to about 3.5 touchdowns per game.
Regardless, a quarterback would have to have a two-season span of 119 touchdowns and 14,198 yards. Which means they would have to have consecutive seasons of 7,000 passing yards and 60 touchdowns to make the value equal the payment per production of Patrick Mahomes’ deal.
Now my head hurts.
Will this ever happen? I mean, I’m not going to say never with the way the passing game dominates the NFL and with the continued influx of elite quarterbacks making their way into the league. Is it likely and will it happen anytime soon outside of franchise mode in Madden? Probably not. But, that’s what it would take.
