Former President Donald Trump was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury on Thursday, making him the first current or former U.S. president to ever be indicted, and throwing a curve ball into his third White House bid.
The exact charges were unknown as of Friday because they remain under seal, but they follow a long-running investigation by the Manhattan district attorney’s office into alleged hush money payments made to porn star Stormy Daniels in the run-up to the 2016 election.
Trump has denied any wrongdoing and repeatedly called the investigation a “witch hunt.”
“This evening we contacted Mr. Trump’s attorney to coordinate his surrender to the Manhattan D.A.’s Office for arraignment on a Supreme Court indictment ... ” a spokesperson for the district attorney stated on Friday.
Trump, who was at his Florida estate on Thursday, is expected to surrender himself in New York next week. One of his defense attorneys told The Associated Press that he is “likely” to give himself up on Tuesday.
How will the indictment impact his 2024 chances?
Given that Trump’s indictment is unprecedented (only one other president has ever been arrested, but never indicted), it is unclear if it will dampen or strengthen support for his 2024 White House bid.
But, recent polling indicates that few minds will be changed by new charges being brought against him as opinions appear to break along partisan lines, according to Ipsos, a market research company.
Eighty percent of Republicans believe the indictment is politically motivated while only 32% of Democrats believe the same, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll from mid March.
Similarly, 83% of Republicans agree with the statement “the elite class is targeting Donald Trump” to cripple his chances of winning in 2024, according to the poll. Only 27% of Democrats agree with the statement.
The fact that the allegations of hush money payments are years old is also likely to factor into the equation, according to an analysis by FiveThirtyEight, a political polling site. Trump’s purported wrongdoing is “already baked into public opinion about him,” the site states.
Additionally, past polling during other flash points indicates that public opinion of the former president is relatively unshakable and is not likely to change very much as a result of new charges, according to Ipsos.
During Trump’s first impeachment in 2020, public opinion of the president remained more or less stable throughout the proceedings. In fact, support for impeaching and removing Trump dropped a percentage point from October 2019 to January 2020.
This unwavering public sentiment contrasts starkly with the impeachment proceedings of President Richard Nixon and President Bill Clinton, who saw support for their removal surge by 39 and 13 percentage points, respectively.
Similarly, the January 6 hearings, which set out to establish Trump’s role in the violence on the Capitol attack, did not appear to move the needle of public opinion when it came to Trump’s level of responsibility, according to Brookings, citing Quinnipiac polling.
In December, the month the hearings concluded, 34% of Americans said Trump bore not much or no responsibility for Jan. 6. A year earlier, that figure was 36%. Similarly, 43% said he bore a lot of the responsibility in January, and 45% said the same in December, revealing only the slightest shift in opinion.
So, if history is any guide, support for the former president is not likely to take a serious hit following the revelation that charges have been levied against him in New York.
It may have the opposite effect, prompting Republicans to rally around him, according to The Wall Street Journal. This potential boost could help Trump in the primaries but harm him in a general election.
It’s possible the Manhattan grand jury’s indictment will only be the beginning of Trump’s legal trouble. Several other ongoing investigations could result in charges being brought against the former president.
A special grand jury in Georgia is examining efforts to interfere with the 2020 presidential election.
Additionally, a special counsel appointed by Attorney General Merrick Garland is overseeing two investigations into Trump. One has to do with the alleged mishandling of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s Florida estate. The other is looking into attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
How an accumulation of charges might affect public opinion is unclear.
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