We could be faced with an avocado shortage due to climate change, after a report revealed the climate crisis is having a “terrible impact” on the fruit.
Countries like Burundi, Chile, Peru, Spain, South Africa and Mexico, the best regions for growing avocados, are seeing productivity shrink due to more volatile conditions.
The report from the charity Christian Aid said these countries are expected to have productivity decline by between 14 per cent and 41 per cent by 2050, depending on how fast global emissions are reduced.
Christian Aid is calling governments to put plans in place to urgently reduce emissions, accelerate the energy transition and provide more climate aid to developing nations at Cop29 this year in Azerbaijan.
Mariana Paoli, global advocacy lead at Christian Aid, said: “Avocados might be a superfood but their kryptonite is climate change.
“Agricultural communities in developing countries are already bearing the brunt of the climate emergency and they rely on stable and predictable climates to feed their families. That is why it’s vital they receive a lot more financial support to adapt to this changing climate.”
Meanwhile, Professor Carol Wagstaff, dean for agriculture at the University of Reading, said the problem requires a “multipronged solution”.
She explained: “We have to embrace different cultivation systems that do not rely on deforestation and monoculture production which makes avocado vulnerable to diseases, destroys soil quality and biodiversity, and reduces the availability of water – all of which are crucial to enabling resilience of avocado trees and other crops.
“Crucially, we also need to stop human activities and industrial processes which drive the higher temperatures and extreme weather events associated with climate change.”
Could there be a future avocado shortage?
If volatile conditions don't improve, an avocado shortage could be on the cards. The UK obtains most of its avocados from Peru and Chile, where water scarcity is already high and avocado production has taken a hit due to compromised access to water for some smallholder farmers.
Droughts are even causing problems in Hollywood, as actor Tom Selleck found out to his cost when he was accused of stealing water to grow the fruit.Mexico, the world’s biggest producer of the fruit, could see its potential growing area reduced by 31 per cent by 2050 even if the global average temperature rise is limited to under 2°C, and as much as 43 per cent if it increases towards 5°C, it said.
Avocado farmer and president of Farmer’s Pride Burundi, Jolis Bigirimana, says that for avocado growers, climate change is creating huge problems.
“We are experiencing hot temperatures, heavy rain and erosion, which is having a terrible impact on farmers’ productivity and their income. It now costs us a lot of money to water our crops,” he said.
“We need to see richer, polluting countries cut their carbon emissions which is driving this extreme weather and also provide finance to help us adapt to the changing climate.”
Honor Eldrige, sustainable food expert and author of the Avocado Debate, says one avocado needs 320 litres of water on average.
Producing an avocado is therefore becoming increasingly expensive and these costs will likely be passed on to the consumer, raising the price we pay for our guacamole, she warned.
No wonder the fad for avocados on toast is becoming a thing of the past.
