The Cotswold Chase trends ahead of Saturday’s big Cheltenham Trials Day race suggest punters might want to be wary of the favourite – with only two winning market leaders landing the prize since 2004.
Chantry House and Santini The Only Cotswold Chase Winning Favourites Since 2004
In more recent years the Cotswold Chase trends regarding the favourites has picked up slightly – but the return on the market leader is still only two from the last 21 renewals in this Cheltenham Trials Day race.
Two Nicky Henderson-trained horses in Chantry House, who could line-up again this Saturday at the age of 11, and Santini rewarded favourite backers in the Cotswold Chase in 2022 and 2020.
However, with these being the only two winning market leaders, it’s been a race over the years that has been dubbed a ‘favourites graveyard’.
This means a ‘non-favourite’ has won the Cotswold Chase 90% of the last 21 runnings.
Last Year’s Cotswold Chase Favourite Was Only Third
This was backed up again in 2024, when the jolly Stay Away Fay could only manage third.
While in 2023 the 5/4 favourite with the best betting sites in the UK Protektorat finished fourth.
Bristol De Mai fell by the wayside in 2021, when the race was staged at Sandown, and also in 2018.
While former Grand National winner Many Clouds saw off the red-hot 4/9 market leader Thistlecrack in 2017.
What does this tell us?
Well in short, it’s a race that punters (for whatever reason) have struggled to get totally right.
Yes, of course, many would have still backed the winner and at nice odds too with not many jollies winning.
It also means the best backed horses haven’t delivered – which backs up that the Cotswold Chase has been tricky contest for horse racing fans to nail.
With all his in mind, this year’s Cotswold Chase favourite with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK – L’Homme Presse – will have this trend to overcome.
But the good news is – L’Homme Press, who was third in the King George VI Chase over Christmas, won’t know what price in the market he is 😉.
Cotswold Chase Trends and Stats 📈 – The Last 21 Runnings
In addition to the favourites related Cotswold Chase trend, SportsCasting’s Andy Newton also has many more stats to take into the race.
You can apply these to the final runners to find the best profiles based on past winners.
- 21/21 – Rated 151 or higher
- 20/21 – Raced at Cheltenham over fences before (10 winners)
- 19/21 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
- 19/21 – Ran in the last 8 weeks
- 17/21 – Won between 2-6 times (fences)
- 16/21 – Returned 7/1 or less
- 14/21 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, all placed 8th or better)
- 13/21 – Favourites placed
- 13/21 – Raced at Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (6) last time
- 11/21 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
- 10/21 – Unplaced in last race
- 10/21 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
- 8/21 – Won most recent race
- 7/21 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
- 7/21 – Won by a French-bred horse
- 3/21 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (5 wins in total)
- 2/21 – Won by the Henderson yard (2 of the last 5)
- 2/21 – Winning Favourites
- 1/21 – Irish-trained winners (2024)
- 1/21 – Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)
- 1/21 – Went onto win the Ryanair Chase (Frodon, 2019)
- 10 of the last 17 winners were aged 9 or 10 years-old
- The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 7/1
- Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup
- Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 3 times (1980, 2020, 2022)
Cotswold Chase 2025 Runners 🏇: L’Homme Presse Heads The Field
- Capodanno (Willie Mullins)
- Gentlemansgame (Mouse Morris)
- Ga Law (Jamie Snowden)
- Stage Star (Paul Nicholls)
- Chantry House (Nicky Henderson)
- Dashel Drasher (Jeremy Scott)
- Delta Work (Gordon Elliott)
- L’Homme Presse (Venetia Williams)
- Tommie Beau (Seamus Mullins)
Note: The final declarations will be out on Thursday 23rd Jan 2025
Capodanno Looking To Become The First Repeat Cotswold Chase Winner EVER
Many Clouds won the Cotswold Chase in 2015 and 2017, while See More Business also took the prize twice in 1998 and 2001.
However, since the Cotswold Chase was first run in 1980, we’ve not had a repeat winner of the race – EVER.
That could all change in 2025 though as last year’s hero CAPODANNO, who is trained by Willie Mullins, is expected to make the trip over from Ireland again.
12 months ago, Capodanno saw off The Real Whacker and Stay Away Fay, with 2023 winner Ahoy Senor back in third.
Since then, however, the horse hasn’t won another race and comes here on a five race losing run which he’ll be looking to change.
Gold Cup Trial In All But Name With The Last Horse To Win Both Races In 2000
The final pointer when it comes to the Cotswold Chase is that many describe the race as a Cheltenham Gold Cup Trial.
But, this is really in all but name – as the last horse to win both races in the same season was Looks Like Trouble in 2000.
The race was called the Pillar Property Chase back then – you can relive his win below with jockey Norman Williamson doing the steering for this Noel Chance runner.
Cotswold Chase Race Details 2025
📅Date: Saturday 25th January 2025
⌚Time: 2:25pm
🏇Racecourse: Cheltenham
🔄Trip: 3m 1 1/2f
💷Winning Purse: £70,338
📺 TV: ITV / Racing TV – Full ITV Racing coverage here
Cotswold Chase Winners Since 2004 📋
- 2024 – Capodanno (7/2)
- 2023 – Ahoy Senor (13/2)
- 2022 – Chantry House (5/6 fav)
- 2021 – Native River (13/2)
- 2020 – Santini (13/8 fav)
- 2019 – Frodon (9/4)
- 2018 – Definitly Red (7/1)
- 2017 – Many Clouds (8/1)
- 2016 – Smad Place (9/2)
- 2015 – Many Clouds (4/1)
- 2014 – The Giant Bolster (6/1)
- 2013 – Cape Tribulation (7/1)
- 2012 – Midnight Chase (11/2)
- 2011 – Neptune Collonges (11/2)
- 2010 – Taranis (16/1)
- 2009 – Joe Lively (11/1)
- 2008 – Knowhere (16/1)
- 2007 – Exotic Dancer (6/1)
- 2006 – See You Sometime (18/1)
- 2005 – Grey Abbey (10/3)
- 2004 – Jair Du Cochet (11/4)
