Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

Cost of living squeeze could push UK into ‘mild recession’; petrol price hits fresh highs – as it happened

A Shell petrol station forecourt in Portland, United Kingdom.
A Shell petrol station forecourt in Portland, United Kingdom. Photograph: Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images

Closing summary

A quick reminder of today’s main stories:

We’ll be back in the morning... GW

Updated

Boris Johnson has acknowledged that motorists were looking to the Government to do more to ease cost pressures, after fuel prices hit new records last weekend.

Attending the G7 summit in Germany, Johnson told the BBC:

“We need to help people through the current pressures. At the pumps people are thinking ‘you know, this Government could do more to help with the cost of fuel’.

“People are thinking ‘what are they doing to help me with the cost of food?’

So we’re doing as much as we possibly can.”

Wall Street has made a muted start to the new week, as investors weigh up the risks of inflation and recession.

The main indices are all a little lower in early trading,

  • Dow Jones industrial average: down 53 points or 0.17% at 31,447
  • S&P 500: down 15 points or 0.4% at 3,896
  • Nasdaq Composite: down 85 points or 0.75% at 11,521

Pharmaceuticals group Merck (+2%), oil producer Chevron (+2%) and construction equipment maker Caterpillar (+1.5%) are leading the Dow risers, while Boeing (-3.5%) and Salesforce (-2.6%) are the worst-performing stocks.

Last week’s slide in commodity prices allayed some concerns on inflation and raised hopes that that US Federal Reserve might not tighten interest rates as quickly.

But market sentiment is very gloomy, after a run of weak economic data recently:

The Holiday Inn logo.
The Holiday Inn logo. Photograph: David Mdzinarishvili/Reuters

Holiday Inn-owner IHG is stopping all operations in Russia, four months after the Ukraine invasion.

IHG, which runs several other chains including Regent and Crowne Plaza, is checking out of Russia due to Western sanctions and the increasing challenges of doing business there after the Ukraine invasion.

The group had previously stopped new investments and development activities in Russia and closed its corporate office in Moscow.

Today it says:

We are now in the process of ceasing all operations in Russia consistent with evolving UK, US and EU sanction regimes and the ongoing and increasing challenges of operating there.

Britain’s 40-year high inflation has lead to double-digit declines in the amount of spare cash after families have paid for essentials.

The latest Cost of Living Tracker, from Retail Economics and HyperJar, found that the average household’s discretionary income fell by 10.6% compared with May 2021.

This left them £127 less to spend on non-essential items.

But the least affluent households saw their spare cash fall by 13.9%, once they’d paid for essential items.

And while rich households spend more in cash terms on essentials, that made a smaller dent in their overall income (as they earned more).

UK families saw their disposable income fall as inflation rose
UK families saw their disposable income fall as inflation rose Photograph: Retail Economics/HyperJar

This could leave families struggling to pay for Christmas, or even handle the energy bills, warns Mat Megens, CEO of HyperJar, which runs a money management app and prepaid debit card.

“The energy discount clearly hasn’t taken the chill off consumer confidence. This research shows that most of us have or plan to cut back on discretionary spending, right up to Christmas, and to significantly reduce our energy consumption this winter.

“Typically, big financial shocks prompt a move from shorter to longer-term money habits. We’re starting to think ahead, to plan for future pressure points like winter fuel and Christmas costs, and adapt our finances to meet them as best we can.”

The square in front of Saint Basil’s Cathedral near The Kremlin in Moscow, this month
The square in front of Saint Basil’s Cathedral near The Kremlin in Moscow, this month Photograph: Yuri Kadobnov/AFP/Getty Images

The Kremlin has rejected claims that it has defaulted on its external debts today, after the grace period on $100m interest payments ran out overnight.

Moscow said it had tried to send the debt payments to bondholders, but the payment wasn’t received, after the US government closed a sanctions waiver that allowed American investors to temporarily receive interest payments from Russia.

Reuters has the details:

In a call with reporters, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia made bond payments due in May but the fact they had been blocked by Euroclear because of Western sanctions on Russia was “not our problem”.

Russia has struggled to keep up payments on $40 billion of outstanding bonds since its invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, as sweeping sanctions have effectively cut the country off from the global financial system and rendered its assets untouchable to many investors.

Russia has long said it has the money to pay, calling the default artificial as sanctions block foreign bondholders from receiving the cash. On Monday, a U.S. official said the default showed how dramatically the sanctions were impacting Russia’s economy.

Around a half of Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves - some $300 billion - were earlier blocked by western sanctions imposed after Moscow sent troops to Ukraine.

“Our position is well known. Our reserves are blocked unlawfully and all attempts to use these reserves will also be unlawful and would amount to outright theft,” Peskov said.

Updated

UK faces ‘significant risks’ to quality of food imported post-Brexit

Lorries queuing at Calais.
Lorries queuing at Calais. Photograph: Sean Smith/The Guardian

The UK is facing “significant risks” to the quality of food being imported and consumed as Brexit, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war puts pressure on standards, according to a new report.

Better controls are needed to ensure the quality of “higher-risk” food coming from the EU post-Brexit – such as meat, dairy, eggs and feed – and to avoid “potential safety incidents” the report by the Food Standards Agency (FSA) and Food Standards Scotland (FSS) said.

They warned that the cost of living crisis would also put pressure on the types of food people could afford to buy.

“Our research shows that concerns about price, health and the environment are high among the public’s priorities,” the report concludes.

“In the face of the steep rises in food prices, and widener pressures on household incomes … we recognise that it is almost certain to become more challenging for consumers to access affordable healthy and sustainable food this year.”

More here:

Over in the US, factories have reported a larger increase in demand for heavy-duty products.

Durable goods orders jumped by 0.7% last month, more than expected, suggesting that business investment is holding up despite rising interest rates and mounting concerns about the economy.

Speaking of industrial action.... the UK transport workers union, the RMT, have shown support for today’s barrister strike, reports Louis Goss of City AM:

And here’s lawyer Anne Mannion:

Updated

More rail strikes due this week

Tramlink, Croydon’s tram network
Tramlink, Croydon’s tram network Photograph: Garry Weaser/The Guardian

More rail strikes will be held this week in worsening disputes over issues including pay, jobs and conditions.

Members of the drivers’ union Aslef on the Croydon Tramlink will strike on Tuesday and Wednesday over pay, PA Media reports.

The walkout follows three days of strike action last week on the railways and a 24-hour stoppage on London Underground which crippled services.

Aslef said FirstGroup, the company which operates Tramlink on behalf of Transport for London, has offered tram drivers a 3% pay rise.

Finn Brennan, Aslef’s organiser on Croydon Tramlink and London Underground, said:

“This would mean a real terms wage cut for people already struggling to deal with rising fuel, energy and food bills.

“Our members do a difficult and demanding job, working round the clock shifts over 364 days of the year. They deserve a fair pay settlement.

“The Mayor of London and the board of TfL should be intervening to stop this abuse and make Tramlink treat its staff fairly.”

Transport for London said services will be severely disrupted by the strikes.
Trish Ashton, TfL director of rail and sponsored services, said:

“We are disappointed that Aslef have decided to take industrial action on the tram network and urge them to meet with Tram Operations Ltd, the operator, to try and resolve this matter and avoid disruption to our customers.

“All customers travelling on the days set to be impacted by strikes are advised to check before they make their journeys.”

Talks between the Rail, Maritime and Transport union (RMT), Network Rail and train companies are expected to resume in a bid to resolve the national dispute.

The UK government’s attempts to disapplying parts of the Northern Ireland protocol could add to the inflationary pressures that are threatening to push the UK into recession (see opening post).

Academics at the University of Liverpool Management School are warning today that the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill will fuel economic policy uncertainty, six years on from the Brexit vote.

An opinion piece for LSE’s Business Review, by professor Costas Milas and lecturers Michael Ellington and Marcin Michalski, shows how rising economic policy uncertainty and higher interest rates feeds into elevated financial stress.

They say:

The Bill has already created tensions between Johnson’s government and the EU and has triggered serious accusations that the UK is about to breach international law. Our belief is that by pushing forward with this very bill, Johnson’s government will unnecessarily add to existing economic policy uncertainty. Indeed, how many counties around the world will be willing to sign trade agreements with the UK when Johnson’s government has been accused of breaching international law?

This will fuel economic policy uncertainty but also hit the country’s trustworthiness in international markets therefore increasing the interest rate that investors demand to bring, or even keep, their money in the UK.

As our work has shown, rising economic policy uncertainty and higher interest rates feeding into elevated financial stress will create the “perfect” conditions for further recessionary effects in the UK economy over and above the recession currently predicted by the Bank of England. Notice that the Bank of England’s econometric models have accounted for the adverse economic impact of rising inflation on UK real incomes and the war in Ukraine but not for the “unpleasant” developments regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill.

MPs get their first opportunity later today to vote on the bill to override parts of the ‘oven-ready’ post-Brexit deal on Northern Ireland.

Boris Johnson has defended the plan, saying it will help restore the balance of the Belfast/Good Friday agreement, although some Conservative backbenchers are concerned it breaches the rule of law.

Madrid’s stock exchange this morning
Madrid’s stock exchange this morning Photograph: Vega Alonso del Val/EPA

European stock markets have shrugged off the growing risk of recession this morning.

The UK’s FTSE 100 index has climbed around 0.75% so far today to 7264 points, up 55 points to its highest in a week.

Mining stocks are leading the risers, with Glencore and Anglo American gaining 3.5%, along with engineering firm Rolls-Royce.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index is up around 0.7%.

That still leaves the Footsie down around 4% this year, while European stocks have lost around 8%, as recession fears swept markets.

Today’s gains show that Russia’s default, for the first time since 1998, isn’t seen as a systemic threat to markets.

Marios Hadjikyriacos of XM says traders are hoping that inflationary pressures will fade, which would mean central banks might not need to raise interest rates quite as quickly as thought.

Business surveys from Europe and America foreshadow a sharp slowdown in growth, market-based measures of inflation expectations have rolled over and the terminal level for interest rates has been pushed lower.

Traders are saying the inflationary bonfire will be extinguished, albeit in a painful manner.

Profits at China’s industrial firms continued to decline last month as Covid-19 lockdowns hit factory production, but the downturn could be bottoming out.

Profits fell 6.5% from a year earlier, as disruption hit manufacturers’ earnings. But, that’s an improvement on April’s 8.5% decline, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported.

Profits in the coal mining and oil and gas extraction sectors surged, as the Russia-Ukraine war sparked the rally in global commodity prices.

Richard Hunter of Interactive Investor says:

With production starting to resume, the decline in profit of 6.5% compared with 8.5% in April, there is some hope that China may also have turned a corner.

Updated

Record fuel prices are just one part of a ‘hat-trick of hurt’ raining down on UK businesses, as my colleague Phillip Inman reports:

Britain’s army of more than a million small and medium-sized businesses are stockpiling raw materials and ordering components six months ahead to overcome supply shortages that prevent them from meeting customer demands.

With construction costs reaching fresh record highs and import prices surging following a fall in the pound, businesses reported that much of their cash was tied up in securing the basic raw materials and components needed to supply customers.

Simon Gray, head of business at the accountancy body ICAEW, said companies were suffering “a hat-trick of hurt” that was forcing them to limit production.

“Businesses are reporting that things are so bad they cannot plan for the future.

There is a breakdown in confidence and the uncertainty is changing their behaviour, making them take no risks and cut investment,”

Updated

The surge in fuel prices at the pumps is being driven by a shortage of refinery capacity, both in the UK and globally, which has exacerbated the shock of the Ukraine war.

Bloomberg has a good, worrying, piece about how this could lead to shortages this winter.

That refining bottleneck should start to rectify itself a little this year as new facilities are built, but damage has already been done. With the UK and Europe just months from banning crude and fuel imports from Russia, there’s already an urgent need to stock up -- but few places that can fill such a large void.

Even now, months after it first invaded Ukraine, Russia remains a huge and vital supplier of crude and fuel -- especially diesel -- to continental Europe. And in trading terms, winter is only a few months away.

“The real concern in Europe is really going to be around diesel this winter,” Russel Hardy, the chief executive officer of Vitol Group, the world’s largest independent oil trader, said in a Bloomberg TV interview this week.

“That’s one of the things that’s really driving price is the concern around diesel.”

The Resolution Foundation senior economist, Jonathan Marshall, argues that cutting fuel duty again, as the AA call for, would not be a good way to help those struggling most.

Updated

RAC: Petrol firms engaged in ‘rocket and feather' pricing.

Motoring group RAC say UK fuel retailers are engaging in ‘rocket and feather’ pricing, after petrol and diesel both touched record highs over the weekend.

Prices at the pumps jumped sharply (over the last few months as wholesale prices have risen.

But even though the wholesale price of petrol started to fall a couple of weeks ago, motorists haven’t seen the benefits.

UK petrol and diesel prices

RAC fuel spokesman Simon Williams said:

“We are struggling to see how retailers can justify continuing to put up their unleaded prices as the wholesale cost of petrol has reduced significantly.

This is sadly a classic example of ‘rocket and feather’ pricing in action, and one which the Competition and Markets Authority will no doubt be looking at very closely. It seems as if retailers are making matters worse for themselves by not lowering their forecourt prices despite having a clear opportunity to do so.

Even the price of wholesale diesel, which had been on a rising trajectory due to the move away from Russian imports, has cooled. This could yet prevent its average price from hitting the £2 a litre landmark. But, as always, that will depend on how fairly retailers reflect the reduction in its wholesale price on their totems.

“The only explanation of retailers’ resistance to reducing prices is that they’re protecting profits in case of wholesale costs suddenly going back up. Ultimately, the longer they hold out, the more they benefit and the longer the misery continues for drivers struggling with the high prices.”

UK petrol hits new high

Petrol prices hit fresh record highs at UK forecourts over the weekend, adding to the cost of living squeeze.

The average price of a litre of petrol rose to 191.05p on Sunday, data from Experian Catalyst shows.

That takes the cost of filling a typical 55-litre family car to £105, up from around £72 a year ago.

Diesel hit an alltime high of 199.09p/litre on Saturday, as it headed towards the £2 mark, before dipping back a little yesterday.

Edmund King, AA president, said record fuel prices are hitting businesses, and could add to the cost of holidaying in the UK this summer.

“Pain at the pumps continues. As we come towards the end of June and into the full summer season we still have crippling record prices at the pumps.

Record petrol prices could stifle summer staycations when the airports are struggling and dramatic diesel prices hit industry and haulage and fuel inflation.

The Government needs to urgently take action on price transparency and cut duty levels.”

Petrol prices climbed steadily last week, in a blow to commuters who switched to their cars during the rail strike.

The UK’s competition authorities are currently conducting a “swift high-level review of competition in the fuel retail market”, after business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng called for an inquiry into the sector.

Criminal barristers begin strike in row over legal aid fees

Criminal barristers strike actionCriminal barristers from the Criminal Bar Association (CBA), which represents barristers in England and Wales, outside Manchester Crown Court on the first of several days of court walkouts by CBA members in a row over legal aid funding. Picture date: Monday June 27, 2022. PA Photo. Barristers are expected to stage picket lines outside court, including at the Old Bailey in London and at crown courts in Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff, Leeds and Manchester. The strike action is intended to last for four weeks, beginning with walkouts on Monday June 27 and Tuesday June 28, increasing by one day each week until a five-day strike from Monday July 18 to Friday July 22. See PA story LEGAL Barristers. Photo credit should read: Peter Byrne/PA Wire
Criminal barristers from the Criminal Bar Association (CBA) outside Manchester Crown Court tooday, on the first of several days of court walkouts by CBA members in a row over legal aid funding. Photograph: Peter Byrne/PA

Barristers have joined the ranks of UK workers holding industrial action, in a protest against inadequate government funding for their work.

Criminal barristers are holding a walkout today, to push for a higher increase in legal aid fees, in a move that is expected to disrupt trials.

Barristers are expected to stage picket lines outside court, including at the Old Bailey in London and at crown courts in Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff, Leeds and Manchester.

The strike action is intended to last for four weeks, beginning with walkouts today and on Tuesday, increasing by one day each week until a five-day strike from Monday July 18 to Friday July 22.

Haroon Siddique, our legal affairs correspondent, explains why barristers are downing tools:

The Criminal Bar Association (CBA) said the offer of a 15% uplift in fees, which was the minimum increase recommended by the criminal legal aid review (Clar), is insufficient after swingeing cuts – and will not apply to the backlog of 58,000 cases in crown courts.

It says incomes have fallen nearly 30% over the last two decades and specialist criminal barristers make an average annual income after expenses of £12,200 in the first three years of practice, driving 22% of junior criminal barristers to leave since 2016.

Barristers participating in the strike on Monday spoke of being paid less than the minimum wage for court hearings when travel and hours spent preparing are factored in – and not at all when hearings are cancelled.

Criminal barristers protest in LondonPeople hold signs during a strike by criminal barristers outside the ‘Old Bailey’ in London, Britain, June 27, 2022. REUTERS/John Sibley
A strike by criminal barristers outside the ‘Old Bailey’ in London today. Photograph: John Sibley/Reuters

Updated

G7 leaders meeting in the Bavarian Alps have been working on a possible price cap on Russian oil, as they seek ways to curb inflation and restrict Moscow from financing its war in Ukraine.

Our diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour reported last night:

Twin caps on the price of Russian oil and pipeline gas are being canvassed heavily by the Italian prime minister, Mario Draghi, and at Sunday’s opening meeting he gained the support of the French president, Emmanuel Macron.

“There is now more than mild optimism that this will work,” one source said.

The gas cap would operate simply by European countries refusing to pay above an as-yet unspecified fixed price for Russian gas. It is argued Russia in the short term has no alternative market to sell the pipeline gas, and unless it was prepared to take a huge hit to its revenues by shutting down the pipeline altogether would have no option but to sell at the price dictated by Europe.

Liquid gas would be exempted from this maximum price.

Bloomberg’s Javier Blas has heard the G7 will agree to push forward on this issue, but not reach agreement today:

The boss of healthcare product maker PZ Cussons has warned that customers are facing rising cost-of-living pressures, as it juggles rising supply chain costs.

CEO Jonathan Myers said the companyu is taking steps to ‘mitigate’ the squeeze.

The trading environment continues to be challenging, with high input cost inflation and pressures on household budgets.

We have plans in place to mitigate the impact of this, as we continue to deliver great value for consumers, whilst also investing behind more premium innovations.

PZ Cussons recently launched Cussons Creations, a new brand for the ‘value-conscious consumer’.

KPMG also flags that the Russia-Ukraine war has driven global gas prices up around four times higher than their pre-pandemic average, while global food markets saw prices rise by 60%:

Many low-income countries in the Middle East, Africa and Asia rely heavily on cereal and fertiliser imports from Russia and Ukraine, making them particularly vulnerable to the disruption in food production.

As well as warning of a possible recession, KPMG has lifted its forecast for UK inflation this year.

Prices are now expected to rise by an average of 8.1% during 2022, four times the Bank of England’s target, and up from 2.6% last year.

UK inflation
UK inflation Photograph: KPMG

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated the upward pressure on inflation from global commodity prices, such as oil....

At the time of writing, Brent crude oil was trading at around US$110 per barrel. Since UK consumers purchase petrol at market prices, which are determined internationally, this affects prices at the pump. With average petrol prices exceeding £182p per litre, the cost of filling a 55-litre tank with petrol has now exceeded £100.

The current market expectations are that oil prices won’t fall below US$100 per barrel until next year.

...and food:

The disruption in food production as a result of the war is putting direct upward pressure on prices, while higher cost of fertilisers will impact food prices and production globally.

Higher oil prices also affect prices in shops indirectly, as they translate into higher transportation costs, which are then passed on to the prices of final goods.

Updated

Manufacturing and banks could be worse hit by recession

The UK’s manufacturing and financial services sectors would be among the worst hit by a recession.

Banks could see significant losses from a downturn, as falling incomes and rising inflation left more families unable to repay debts.

Factories would suffer a tumble in exports if the US and the eurozone fell into recessions.

KPMG warn that supply problems might not ease as soon as hoped, if Russian energy supplies were cut off:

Agent surveys conducted by the Bank of England also point to key bottlenecks arising from supply chain issues and labour shortages rather than a shortfall in demand. These difficulties are particularly pertinent in manufacturing.

We expect supply issues to gradually ease during the course of this year, although headwinds in the form of a potential deterioration in Russian energy supply or further lockdowns in China as a result of its zero COVID policy could worsen the outlook.

Introduction: Inflation could push UK economy into recession

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the world economy and the financial markets.

Rising recession and fresh geopolitical shocks are threatening to push the UK economy into recession.

KPMG’s latest UK Economic Outlook report, released this morning, shows that the cost of living crisis could help trigger “a mild recession” in 2023, as the Ukraine war and China lockdowns push up commodity prices and put strain on supply chains.

KPMG’s baseline case is for a sharp slowdown -- with UK GDP growth more than halving this year to 3.2%, before slowing further to 0.7% in 2023.

But it warns that:

There are growing concerns that a combination of policy actions to combat inflation and any further fallouts as a result of geopolitical tensions could bring about another recession.

The report suggests the UK could suffer a 1.5% fall in GDP in the year between the third quarter of this year, and 2023, if three key headwinds hit the economy:

  • A potential US recession arising from a significant monetary tightening by the US Fed;

  • A potential Eurozone recession due to interruptions of gas supplies from Russia, as well as a significant additional shock to global wholesale gas and oil prices;

  • An ongoing and worsening squeeze on UK household incomes leading to a sharp decline in household consumption.

KPMG wans that the risks are skewed to the downside:

A sharper deterioration in the external environment – causing a recession in some of the UK’s major trading partners – coupled with a stronger fall in consumer spending in the UK, could see the UK economy entering a mild recession next year.

A growing number of economists have predicted that America could fall into recession next year, as the US Fedearl Reserve lifts interest rates to slow inflation. Europe’s economy appears to be slowing too, as surging energy prices hit consumers and businesses.

With UK inflation at 40-year highs of 9.1%, consumers are becoming more sensitive to price increases as real incomes get squeezed, the report says:

The cost of living crisis and the rising tax burden have led to a fall in consumer confidence which is set to drag on discretionary spending.

UK consumer confidence has also hit record lows, as people have cut back on spending.

UK consumer confidence

And business investment is expected to be particularly weak next year without any further government support.

Also coming up today

Russia is facing its first debt default in decades, as time ran out on overdue debt repayments due to bond holders.

The grace period on about $100 million of interest payments which had been due on May 27 expired overnight, after Western sanctions prevented Moscow from sending the funds to investors.

Moscow insists it has attempted to pay, dubbing it an artificial default.

This would be Russia’s first default since 1998 when it defaulted on billions of local debt (and restructured some dollar-denominated bonds too).

Russia hasn’t had a major default on foreign debt since the 1917 revolution, when the Bolsheviks under Vladimir Lenin repudiated its Tsarist debts.

European stock markets are set to open higher, as risk appetite improves after recent losses.

The agenda

  • 8am BST: Spanish producer prices inflation for May
  • 11am BST: French unemployment report for May
  • 1.30pm BST: US durable goods orders for May
  • 3pm BST: US pending homes sales for May

Updated

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.