Cool reception for draft global stocktake text on penultimate day of summit
The overwhelming reaction has been negative to the new draft text on the Cop28 Global Stocktake, which only mentions action on fossil fuels as an option rather than a requirement, and as a “reduction” rather than a “phase-out.’ We haven’t heard yet from the two biggest emitters: China and the United States, but it looks like there will be pressure from others for a new draft.
Ministers and heads of delegations will hold closed door meetings in Dubai this evening where there will no doubt be further negotiations. Before I go here is a summary of what happened today:
New draft text released by Cop28 presidency omits reference to a “phase-out” of fossil fuels
Small island states have complained their voices are not being heard
Most civil society groups have condemned the text as inadequate
Azerbaijan and Brazil have formally been approved as hosts of Cop29 and Cop30
Saudi Arabia has been accused of holding the talks hostage
The UN secretary general has urged delegates to ‘End the fossil fuel age.’
Tomorrow is supposed to be the final day, but it will be a miracle if an agreement is reached before the scheduled close.
Thanks for reading, and for your comments. See you again tomorrow.
Avinash Persaud, the climate economist who is also a prominent adviser to the Barbados prime minister, Mia Mottley, told the Guardian:
This is not a bad text. Some will be disappointed about the lack of clarity on a phase-out of fossil fuels, but what this text recognises is the reality that you can’t phase out fossil fuels before you have a massive investment in renewable energy which needs huge finance flows.
This text lays out a plan for a big increase in renewable energy, which we really need to back up with contributions of finance. To get to a phase-out, you need finance, which is what allows the investment in renewables. So to focus on a phase out without finance and renewables would be just virtue signalling. Unless you provide the means of implementation, what does a phase-out mean?
We can live with this text as long as we leave here with an understanding that this means a massive investment in renewable energy in developing countries. That is the only pathway to a phase out of fossil fuels.
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Hindou Oumarou Ibrahim from the Chad delegation has lambasted the global stocktake draft as “business as usual”.
Chad is a country really impacted by climate change and we came to the Cop wanting to see global solidarity. The text on fossil fuels is not good enough, it is bad language and contradicts claims that they are guided by science. And these technologies that are not proven, when we know what works.
The developed countries must phase-out fossil fuels, and they must do it fast. They must commit to the finance that the global south needs for their own survival. Let’s do transition but if it’s not inclusive, it cannot work.
Some have suggested the finance part is a bit better than it was but Oumarou Ibrahim is also disappointed. She added:
We also don’t see clarity on finance for adaptation. They say doubling adaptations – but doubling what? Where is the finance going to come from, will it be additional?
But the presidency is not making the decision alone … what we are seeing here is business as usual from the global north again, who don’t want to put in the money and don’t want to change their lifestyle to save humanity.
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According to the former US vice-president Al Gore, the conference is “on the verge of complete failure”.
He tweeted: “This obsequious draft reads as if Opec dictated it word for word. It is deeply offensive to all who have taken this process seriously.”
COP28 is now on the verge of complete failure. The world desperately needs to phase out fossil fuels as quickly as possible, but this obsequious draft reads as if OPEC dictated it word for word. It is even worse than many had feared. It is “Of the Petrostates, By the Petrostates…
— Al Gore (@algore) December 11, 2023
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EU: Elements of the text are ‘unacceptable’
Wopke Hoekstra, the EU’s climate tsar commissioner, and Teresa Ribera, Spain’s environment minister, a co-leader of the EU delegation at Cop28 in Dubai, have been giving their reaction to the text.
Both were clear that this is the beginning of a process that could last days. Hoekstra told reporters his flight home was booked for Friday and indicated this was a long way from what was needed.
Ribera said: “We think there are elements in the text that are fully unacceptable. We want to have 1.5C being the safe space. We are going to fight for 1.5C. The current text provides some reference to the science, some reference to 1.5C, but it is not consistent with dealing with energy. We need to get into deeper discussions with many other partners, and of course with the president.”
Hoekstra said: “I cannot hide the fact from you that as it stands, the text is disappointing. It is lengthy, we are still looking into all of the various elements. Yes, there are a couple of good things in there.”
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Astute, as usual, from Simon Evans of Carbon Brief, who notes that hardly any of the verbs in the latest draft global stocktake text at Cop28 actually ask for action.
Hardly any of the verbs in the latest draft global stocktake text at #COP28 actually *ask for action*
— Simon Evans (@DrSimEvans) December 11, 2023
It's all "notes", "recognises" etc etc, with a few weak "invites"and only a very few slightly stronger "calls on"
(most "requests" go to the secretariat or similar) pic.twitter.com/ap0Ygm3tm1
‘Epic mess’ – Bill Hare of Climate Analytics
Dr Bill Hare, the climate scientist and chief executive of Climate Analytics, has been to 27 Cops in person and attended the 28th – Cop26 in Glasgow – virtually due to Covid-19.
He told the Guardian that this year’s text was an “epic mess” and there was “no way if it was operationalised that it would keep 1.5C in reach”.
“I would say it’s giving every fossil fuel exporter on the planet everything they need to expand fossil fuel production. They might not say it, they might have crocodile tears, but I think any country involved in exporting coal, oil or gas would be privately very happy.”
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Policy analysts have reacted negatively to the latest draft text at Cop28, particularly the section on fossil fuels and energy, which is introduced as “actions that could [be] included”, not actions that must be taken. One called it a “choose your own adventure” approach to climate action, describing it as “absolutely disappointing”.
“It’s full of weaker proposals than we’d hoped, and internal contradictions,” said Tom Evans at the E3G thinktank. “On the one hand, it talks of the need to limit temperature rise to 1.5C, to peak emissions in 2025, to cut emissions 43% by [2030] and 60% by 2055. But all of those require concrete actions. What’s in this text doesn’t add up: you have a long menu of options on the energy section, [but] not including the clear, unambiguous phase-out of fossil fuels.” A phase-out did appear in the previous draft.
“What we now need to see are those [countries] who are really pushing for ambition rallying together and trying to flush out and isolate the people who are holding this text back,” Evans said. “One can only hope and pray.” Saudi Arabia has been seen as a key obstructor.
David Waskow, at the World Resources Institute, said: “This text doesn’t send the clear signals that are needed to avert the climate crisis. The suggested set of actions is merely a pick-your-own menu.”
“It’s a ‘choose your own adventure’ approach to climate action,” he said. “But you can’t just pick one, or a couple, out of that list. The world is going to need to tackle all of those transformative changes together. And we know that there are enormous benefits from doing so economically and for development. [The draft text] is absolutely disappointing.
Jamal Srouji, also at WRI, said the text was weaker than previous versions regarding specific timelines for the tripling of renewable energy and phasing down coal, and also on the details of ending fossil fuel subsidies, which run at $7tn a year.
Alex Scott, at E3G, said progress on adaptation for climate change, a vital issue for developing nations, was poor: “We have seen the calls for a roadmap for delivering on doubling [the funding for] adaptation that were in the previous draft of the text have been taken out.”
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‘Relieved that it’s not completely biased’ – Third World Network
There’s been a lot of quick takes on what is a pretty substantial and complex document, but the president of the G77 plus China, which represents a bloc of 135 countries, and the African group have told me that they are still digesting.
Meena Raman, Cop veteran and climate policy expert from the Third World Network, says that she’s relieved that it’s not totally biased towards the wealthy nations, and that there’s likely to be a diversity of reactions from the developing and developed world. She said:
“It reads like the president is trying to manage a balancing act, with some things the G77 proposed, and others that developed countries pushed for. We don’t know yet how the parties will react, but you can never keep everyone happy - that’s negotiating - it’s always a delicate balance. But I am a bit relieved that it’s not completely biased. The language on finance seems a little bit stronger, but then we have global targets pushed for by the EU. For the first time we have language in the text about consumption and production, which is interesting… remember George Bush said ‘the American lifestyle is non-negotiable’.
Raman, who will be present for the countries’ reaction tonight, left me with one piece of advice: “This isn’t the final text, things can still happen.”
Amazon rainforest to host first Cop in 2025
Brazil has been formally chosen to host the 30th conference of the parties to the United Nations framework convention on climate change.
Cop30 will take place in the city of Belém between November 10 and 21 2025. This will be the first Cop to be held in the Amazon rainforest, which will be an opportunity to put nature back at the forefront of the climate debate, rather than it be marginalised by energy, technology and markets.
Marina Silva, Brazil’s minister of the environment and climatechange, said:
“With its immense biodiversity and vast territory threatened by climate change, the Amazon will show us the way. It will also remind us of how the three Rio conventions are intertwined not only in their challenges, but also in the synergistic solutions it provides. Holding Cop30 in the heart of the forest is a strong reminder of our responsibility to keep the planet within our 1.5C mission.”
Before that, however, will be Cop29, which will be held in Azerbaijan, the third petrostate in a row to host the conference.
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‘The makings of a historic text … but too weak’ – Grantham Institute
A more nuanced take by Bob Ward, the policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science:
“This has the makings of an historic text, which recognises for the first time in the outcome of a United Nations climate change summit that the production and consumption of fossil fuels need to be cut and replaced by cleaner alternatives in order to achieve net zero emissions of greenhouse gases by mid-century. However, the text is too weak at the moment because it only suggests parties could, rather than should, reduce fossil fuels consumption and production. This should not be optional …
“This text should now require all fossil fuel producers, including the UK, to show how they will cut their outputs in line with the goal of reaching net zero emissions globally by mid-century.
“The text also includes many other important points showing that countries have recognised the extremely sobering findings of the global stocktake that strong and urgent action is required across many areas, including adaptation, loss and damage and climate finance.
“It is now vitally important that this text is not watered down over the coming hours, and is bolstered in key areas, to provide impetus to countries to strengthen the ambition of their national actions in revised pledges that are due to be submitted in 2025.”
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‘We need [phase out] in the text’, says Colombia minister
Susana Muhamad, Colombia’s environment minister, said:
“We need [phase out] in the text. We need to acknowledge that we need 43% reduction by 2030, which is not here. We need 1.5C. 2050 is too late. If we don’t get 2030, we don’t have 2050 and we don’t have 1.5C. We have to concentrate.”
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Alok Sharma, who chaired Cop26 in Glasgow, is unimpressed by the new draft.
It is difficult to see how this text will help to achieve the deep and rapid cut in emissions we need by 2030 to keep 1.5c alive
— Sir Alok Sharma (@AlokSharma_RDG) December 11, 2023
With so many countries backing clear language on fossil-fuel-phase-out, who does this text actually serve?#COP28 https://t.co/bmNY78AmmT
‘Our voices are not being heard’ – Alliance of Small Island States
The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) serves almost as a conscience for climate Cops because its member nations are among the most vulnerable to global heating and rises in sea levels. It has added his voice to the chorus of condemnation for the new draft of the Cop28 global stocktake.
Cedric Schuster, the chair of AOSIS and a cabinet minister of Samoa, said in a statement:
“We are concerned that the process at this time is not in the spirit of multilateralism. As SIDS [small island developing states], we feel our voices are not being heard, while it appears that several other parties have enjoyed preferential treatment, compromising the transparency and inclusivity of the process.
“We are greatly concerned that this lack of a platform to air our views has resulted in weak language that will obliterate our chances of maintaining the 1.5C warming limit …
“Finance and mitigation must go hand in hand. Developed countries must lead because they have the resources to do so, we call on major economies to take the lead here in finance flows.
“We will not sign our death certificate. We cannot sign on to text that does not have strong commitments on phasing out fossil fuels …
“And we remind you yet again – our small island developing states are on the frontlines of this climate crisis, but if you continue prioritising profit over people, you are putting your own future on the line.
“We call on our allies to support our call and stand with us to keep 1.5 alive.”
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Another damning take on the draft, this time from John Silk, who is the head of delegation for Republic of the Marshall Islands:
“The Republic of the Marshall Islands did not come here to sign our death warrant. We came here to fight for 1.5 [C] and for the only way to achieve that: a fossil fuel phase-out. What we have seen today is unacceptable. We will not go silently to our watery graves. We will not accept an outcome that will lead to devastation for our country, and for millions if not billions of the most vulnerable people and communities.”
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Interesting take by Mike Davis, CEO of Global Witness, the watchdog group that has produced some strong analysis of the presence of lobbyists in the climate conference:
‘‘When climate talks are flooded by thousands of fossil fuel lobbyists, it’s no surprise that those talks flop. Cop’s failure to agree to phase out the fossil fuels that are wrecking the planet and making people poorer has the industry’s fingerprints all over it.’’
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Another negative response to the latest text of the Global Stocktake from Kaisa Kosonen, head of the Greenpeace Cop28 delegation:
“It’s a dog’s dinner! If this is all we get from Cop28, then this conference was a failure.
“Acting in line with science doesn’t mean you can do whatever you want. Phasing out fossil fuels is not a choice any more!
“The text has a menu of things countries might choose to do or not to accelerate the energy transition. While reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels to achieve net zero around 2050 is there too, it’s only one of the many options that countries could act on or not.
“This doesn’t capture the historical momentum we’ve witnessed over the past couple of weeks. It’s written in the interest of the fossil fuel industry and not for the people, communities and all life on Earth that needs urgent action the most.
“This leaves the door open to a host of false solutions that will benefit the oil, gas and coal industries instead of providing a safe, fair and equitable future for all of us.”
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Reporters have been waiting for 20 minutes to hear Sultan Al Jaber give his reaction to the first draft. He has still not arrived. The Sultan often keeps journalists waiting and has already cancelled one press conference today. Is he coming? We will soon find out. There’s a scrum of media waiting to speak with him.
Al Jaber has consistently said this will be a historic agreement that keeps 1.5C alive. Many do not think this text is good enough.
The world’s media is waiting to hear what Sultan Al Jaber has to say at #Cop28 pic.twitter.com/zylUE1X8R6
— Patrick Greenfield (@pgreenfielduk) December 11, 2023
Most eyes seem to be focused on the missing phase out/down language, but for the African groups – and many developing countries – the means and finance for climate adaptation is a life-or-death issue. And while the long-delayed global goal on adaptation outcomes hasn’t yet been released, Brandon Wu, director of policy and campaigns at ActionAid US is unimpressed with how developed countries seem to be trying once again to wriggle out of their financial obligations defined in the Paris agreement as ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ (CBDR).
“There doesn’t appear to be any language that points to the obligation of developed countries to provide finance for adaptation – or mitigation. There was a paragraph that originally emphasised providing finance for developing countries but that’s been weakened and instead only recalls the need for finance. Again this is no surprise, as this has been the push from developed countries, not just in the GST but also in the global goal on adaptation and just transition work programs to remove any language saying that developed countries are the ones obligated to provide finance.”
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Ed King, a veteran watcher of climate diplomacy, has listed the following key takeaways:
1. Fossil fuel phaseout/energy transition – reference on reducing fossil fuel consumption and production exists but no urgency to take any action in this critical decade which is key for 1.5C.
2. There are no options in text on any point. What are parties meant to negotiate on? Is this a floor or a ceiling?
3. The commitments on finance, on support mechanisms, on holding to the science, are scattered all over the text. How should we understand what the intention of this text is?
4. The words “oil and gas” do not appear anywhere in the text and the phase out of coal is optional. Is this a weakening of previous commitments on coal at Cop26 and 27?
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Small Island states sharply critical of new text on Global Stocktake
The Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis), representing 39 countries, is sharply critical, with some ministers becoming emotional at a press conference.
Samoa’s minister of natural resources and environment, Toeolesulusulu Cedric Schuster, said the president’s text failed to keep the goal of limiting heating to 1.5C alive, and the paragraph on fossil fuels was “completely insufficient”.
He said: “If we do not have strong mitigation outcomes at this Cop then this will be the Cop where 1.5C would have died. We will not sign our death certificates. We cannot sign on to text that does not have a strong commitment on phasing out fossil fuels.
“We have been asked throughout this process, what is at stake if these negotiations don’t return a strong outcome that keeps 1.5C alive? How can you not understand it is our very survival that is at stake. This is why in every room our negotiators have been pushing tirelessly for decisions that align with staying under 1.5C of warming. That is why if parties continue to oppose the phase out of fossil fuels and fossil fuel subsidies they must stop and question their own commitment to this process.
“As big emitters continue to serve an antiquated industry which is responsible for over 90% of the current CO2 emissions, and rising, Aosis will be here. We will never stop fighting for a future where our people can not just survive, but thrive. Because as a result of the actions of big emitters, we have no other choice.
“We remind you yet again, our small island developing states are on the frontlines of this climate crisis, but if you continue prioritising profit over people you are putting your own future on the line. We call on all our allies to support our call and stand with us to keep 1.5C.”
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Strong words from Mary Robinson, chair of The Elders, whose questioning of Cop28 president Sultan Al Jaber caused a storm last week:
“It is not good enough to say you recognise and respect the science but then fail to take heed of its dire warnings in the collective action you commit to.
“It is not good enough to note with ‘alarm and serious concern’ the findings of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report and the damage being caused by climate change but then fail to put in place the steps the science recommends.
“It is not good enough to say you reaffirm the Paris agreement but to then fail to commit to a full fossil fuel phase out.
“It is not good enough to use weak language or to permit loopholes for the fossil fuel industry to continue to contribute to the very problem countries are meant to be committed to tackling here in Dubai.
“Adequate time and opportunity still lie ahead, provided that nations promptly return to the negotiating table, equipped with the resolve required for a crisis of this magnitude and a readiness to undertake the necessary measures. This current version of the Cop28 text is grossly insufficient.”
Tweeted here by my colleague Damian Carrington:
#cop28 draft text reax
— Damian Carrington (@dpcarrington) December 11, 2023
Mary Robinson, @TheElders and whose questioning of Cop28 president Sultan Al Jaber caused a storm last week: “It is not good enough to say you respect the science but then fail to take heed of its dire warnings in collective action you commit to"
1/5
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Destination Zero
Negative also from Catherine Abreu, founder and executive director of Destination Zero
“We have a watered down menu of compromises, rather than the solid energy transition package developing countries and civil society was pushing for… but it is good to see the language on justice and equity in the fossil fuel text. We have to acknowledge the US [influence] here. The US has consistently stressed the need for enhanced language from what was agreed in Glasgow and reiterated in Egypt, and indeed we see stronger language on coal phase out, including a reference to no new coal. Whereas the language around other fossil fuels - gas and oil - has been significantly weakened, and guess who has the largest expansion plans for gas and oil in the world? The United States. We also have a whole paragraph that falsely puts abatement technologies that are underdelivering and the carbon captured is primarily used for extraction of oil and gas - on a par with renewable technologies that we know work. I see the hands and the influence of the US here.”
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My colleagues Fiona Harvey and Patrick Greenfield have been talking to Tuvalu’s minister of finance Seve Paeniu, who is not happy that “phase out” of fossil fuels has been taken out of the text. He said his country will continue to fight for that phrase. Tuvalu is leading efforts for a fossil fuel non proliferation treaty with Vanuatu.
“Not good. Not good at all. There is no reference to phasing out fossil fuels. That is a worry. It’s providing countries with options rather than obligations.”
“We will continue to fight for strong language over the next few hours….We want to see phase out reflected.”
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Negative also from Dr. Rachel Cleetus, at the Union of Concerned Scientists:
“To put it bluntly, the text related to the energy package that we’ve waited all day to see is extremely disappointing, concerning, and nowhere close to the level of ambition people around the world deserve. Invoking science, as so many leaders are doing, comes with a serious responsibility to put forward language that actually reflects it. This draft comes with a huge qualifier of ‘could’ at the top that makes all the listed actions optional for nations. It has a laundry list of actions filled with glaring loopholes, including a lack of meaningful timelines, especially in this critical decade. The science is irrefutable and people around the world have a clear demand: the fossil fuel era must be phased out, starting now. The latest GST text is riddled with the evidence of world leaders succumbing to the perverse influence of the fossil fuel industry and petrostates instead of choosing to safeguard a livable future for people and the planet. In these final hours, we urge world leaders to deliver the real action we came here to secure.”
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Negative also from Romain Ioualalen, Oil Change International Global Policy lead:
“The latest GST draft is an incoherent and dangerous list of weak measures completely divorced from what is needed to limit warming to 1.5°C. In contrast, the science is very clear: a full, fast, fair, and funded phaseout of all fossil fuels is essential to meet the objectives of the Paris agreement.
“We need a fossil fuel phaseout, not an optional “reduction” in fossil fuels, and certainly not a massive deployment of failed “abatement” technologies such as CCS that exist only as a lifeline for the oil and gas industry. References to so-called “low carbon fuels” used beyond mid-century are coded language for promoting fossil gas far into the future.
“The presidency, in trying to appease a tiny minority of blockers seeking to prolong the fossil fuel era despite the devastating consequences, has produced substantially weaker text that must be significantly improved to be in line with science, finance, and equity.
“We call on ministers and diplomats to remember what is at stake: the future of billions of people and the fate of entire nations, whose future depends on clear and coherent policies to phase out fossil fuel production and use.”
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And more negative reaction from Teresa Anderson, Global Climate Lead at ActionAid:
“The previous Cop28 draft text broke new ground in proposing a phase out of fossil fuels. To take it over the finishing line we just needed to agree the finance and fair timelines that would make the package workable for lower-income countries.
“But instead of taking us closer to a fossil-free future, this draft takes a giant step backwards. It’s staggeringly empty of any new commitments. Instead of deciding to take action, it simply ‘recognises the need’ to phase down unabated coal and scale up renewable energy, leaving out any reference to other fossil fuels such as oil and gas. It ‘notes the need for’ finance, but doesn’t actually provide any. It legitimises debunked technologies such as carbon capture and storage. It’s a paper fan being waved at a burning house. After all the momentum and hope that has been building here, it’s horrible. It’s devastating.
“If the biggest polluters don’t start phasing out fossil fuels now, none of us will have a safe future. With COP28 scheduled to end tomorrow, we need rich countries to agree to end their fossil dependence and provide the finance that can swing the deal and promise a safer future for billions of people.”
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Positive reaction to the new text on the Global Stocktake from Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa:
“On fossil fuels this text lays the ground for transformational change. It’s good to recognise this is the first COP where the word fossil fuels are actually included in the draft decision. This is the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era.
“It appears to be a compromise between Saudi Arabia who didn’t want any mention of fossils and the progressive countries who called for an outright fossil fuel phase out. It’s in the middle and uses creative language to describe the direction of travel.
“We are cooking a fossil free meal here in Dubai. People will argue if it’s the correct recipe, but the main thing is that all the right ingredients are there.
“The crux of the stalemate remains how to handle differentiation in the energy transition so that we don’t treat all countries equally, assuming they all have the same role to play. Fairness is key to this energy transition.
“It’s right that rich historic polluters like the US, UK and Norway go first, then middle income nations like those in the Gulf with poorer developing countries after that. It’s not fair that Congo and Canada must phase out fossil fuels at the same rate.”
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Climate activists lament 'regression' in new text
Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at Climate Action Network International:
“The latest Global Stocktake text on fossil fuels represents a significant regression from previous versions. Astonishingly, it has dropped explicit language on phasing out fossil fuels, opting instead for a vague commitment to ‘reduce both consumption and production’ by 2050. This is a clear indication of the fossil fuel industry’s lobbying power, influencing global policies to favor prolonged fossil fuel use. “If we fail to issue a decisive and strong directive from COP28, we stand at the precipice of crossing the crucial 1.5 degree Celsius warming threshold. Such a scenario would unleash catastrophic consequences globally, disproportionately affecting the most vulnerable communities.”
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Cop28 presidency hails 'huge step forward'
Cop28 presidency statement:
“The COP28 presidency has been clear from the beginning about our ambitions. This text reflects those ambitions and is a huge step forward. Now it is in the hands of the parties, who we trust to do what is best for humanity and the planet.”
They have to be happy with the text because they must now sell it. Let’s see if other participants at Cop28 buy what they are offering.
This is an intriguing question. I don’t think anyone was expecting this wording on fossil fuels so it could a little time to digest. And, of course, there are other elements of the text that groups may choose to focus on.
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The text reads:
(a) Reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by, before, or around 2050 in keeping with the science;
Importantly, the language includes a reference to scientific advice. This does not explicitly name the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but countries will take it to mean IPCC advice. This implies a rapid phase down, as the IPCC sees a very diminished role for any fossil fuels by 2050.
The inclusion of “consumption” is also taken as a nod to oil producing countries, which have argued that they are only fulfilling a global need.
The text also avoids the use of the word “unabated” in relation to fossil fuels, which some countries and campaigners did not want use, as they see it as weakening the commitment to a phase out.
My colleague Damian Carrington’s hot take on the new Cop28 text:
The new #cop28 text is good in making plain fossil fuel use must fall - in direct contrast to the industry's “insane”expansion plans - but does not give a rate of reduction, and pace really matters
— Damian Carrington (@dpcarrington) December 11, 2023
Cfhttps://t.co/ql73158BqJ
Key event
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New global stocktake text includes fossil fuels but avoids 'phase-out' language
Fossil fuel production and consumption will be reduced by 2050 in line with scientific advice, according to a new draft agreement at the Cop28 UN climate summit in Dubai.
The long-awaited draft from the presidency avoids the terms phase out or phase down, which have been key sources of contention at this conference.
However, by asking countries to reduce their fossil fuel production, it effectively achieves the same ends as a phase-down, without using the contentious language that some countries would not allow.
Some countries and campaigners are likely to be disappointed, but the Guardian understands that the presidency held firm against severe pressure from some countries to weaken the outcome.
Governments will now be invited to consider the text, with two key meetings to take place this evening, in particular a heads of delegation meeting at 8pm.
One source close to developing countries at the talks said this was a compromise that could work. Despite the lack of phase-out or phase-down language, the text addresses fossil fuel production directly, rather than fossil fuel emissions – seen as a get-out clause for countries that want to use carbon capture and storage.
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Disturbing tweet from the mother of 12-year-old climate activist Licypriya Kangujam, who was taken away by police after disrupting the high-level session of Cop28.
MOST URGENT: Licypriya mother here from #COP28UAE .
— Licypriya Kangujam (@LicypriyaK) December 11, 2023
Licypriya just disrupted the High Level Session of #COP28 in Al Ghafat Hall by protesting to phase out fossil fuels and UAE Police has taken away her to unknown place. Kindly help me to trace her. 🙏
New text even more imminent than it was three hours ago.
The wait may soon be over here in Dubai. The UAE presidency has told countries to expect a text at 6pm local time and a 8pm plenary with heads of delegations. The text release time has moved all day so this could obviously change again.
This is the wording of the message, which may be quite optimistic about the scheduled finish time tomorrow.
“Dear friends, many thanks for your patience as we work on presidency texts. And for all your inputs and consultations! We look forward to sending the GST draft shortly, and subsequent decision texts by this evening. A “first closing plenary” will be held at 6pm, per usual practice, to close out agreed decisions including to nominate Azerbaijan and Brazil as hosts of COP29 and COP30 respectively. We will convene an informal consultation with ministers and other HODs at 8pm.
Thank you for your continued partnership towards a successful outcome – we look forward to closing this out together and hopefully on time tomorrow.”
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$94m boost for Amazon Fund from Norway and UK
Norway and the UK have promised $94m for the Amazon Fund, which is the biggest source of overseas financial support for the world’s biggest tropical rainforest and its inhabitants.
At an event in Cop28, Norway pledged $50m and the UK $44m. Both nations said this was new money in addition to previous commitments to the Fund, which is used for monitoring deforestation, combating illegal extractive activities and managing more than 1 million square kilometres of indigenous territories and other protected areas.
Rainforests are essential for the world’s climate. Without their capacity to draw down carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, there is no possibility of keeping global heating with the 1.5C to 2C target of the Paris agreement. However, more than 17 % of the forest is already deforested and another 17% degraded, according to the Science Panel for the Amazon.
Human-caused climate disruption is making matters worse by prolonging the dry season. This year was particularly bad with many rivers at record lows and extensive fires. Climate scientists warn that the rainforest is close to a tipping point, after which it will dry up.
The rate of deforestation in Brazil, which is home to 60% of the Amazon, has slowed by about half thanks to conservation policies by Brazilian President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva and his environment minister Marina Silva. They are aiming for zero deforestation by 2030 and have proposed a separate new fund to achieve this goal at Cop28.
The Rainforest Foundation Norway welcomed the new money for the Amazon Fund from the UK and Norway, but stressed that more is needed.
“Brazil needs international support to fulfil its ambition of zero deforestation in the Amazon. This vital rainforest is of global importance for climate and biodiversity, and protecting it is a responsibility that cannot lie with Brazil alone. We can only keep the 1.5 degree target alive if more countries contribute to rainforest protection, as through the Amazon Fund,” said the groups’s executive director Toerris Jaeger,
He said the fund has largely been supported by Norway (94%), Germany (6%) and has recently been promised support also from Switzerland, UK, Denmark and the US, but hardly any of the newly promised support has been disbursed.
Updated
Bad news for the climate. India says it will likely nearly double coal production by 2030, reports Akshat Rathi for Bloomberg Green.
While nearly 200 countries negotiate text to phase out fossil fuels, India's coal ministry announces its plan to nearly double its coal production to 1.5 billion tons annually by 2030.
— Akshat Rathi (@AkshatRathi) December 11, 2023
Also: "100% Foreign Direct Investment has also been allowed." https://t.co/rVMe9p4sIU
Ketan Joshi, a veteran climate campaigner, has written a withering thread on X about the United States’s role in negotiations on carbon trading. Here are some extracts:
The US and other countries are pushing to kill efforts to make carbon trading transparent and less prone to fraud and fakery. Let me explain why this is VERY BAD
The US is fighting for the continuation and expansion of all the flaws of carbon markets
“If the negotiations end like this, the carbon colonialists will come knocking, and being able to do anything about it will become incredibly difficult” Countries like US know that weak rules = cheaper offsets, even if that means more fraud / dodginess
There are two sides in this war: those who want to sell as many carbon offsets as possible, and those who want to reduce planet-heating emissions as much as possible. There’s some overlap, but fundamentally, the two priorities drive two clearly different approaches to rule-making.
We heard similar criticism from others yesterday, as my colleague Patrick Greenfield reported on this blog.
To read Ketan’s thread in full, click below:
Okay, listen up: this is about the big #COP28 problem you probably haven’t heard about.
— I'm @Ketanjoshi.co on Bluesky (@KetanJ0) December 11, 2023
The US and other countries are pushing to kill efforts to make carbon trading transparent and less prone to fraud and fakery. Let me explain why this is VERY BAD 🧵
Updated
Many faith-based groups are hopeful that the new Cop28 text will help the poorest members of society, who are the worst affected and least to blame for the climate crisis.
Jessica Bwali, a Christian global campaigner for Tearfund, says:
“The final negotiations hang in the balance. As a Christian climate campaigner, I am praying for world leaders to show brave servant-heartedness, long-term thinking and a commitment to put the good of the poorest first.
“In these late stages of the UN climate talks, it’s essential to hold firm on the progress made last week and secure agreement to phase out all fossil fuels. It’s vital that this phase-out is fair and funded. We need to avoid any distractions from the urgent, life-saving work of genuinely reducing emissions.”
Updated
More Cop28 participants are sending in comments about their hopes for the new text.
Alexis McGivern, net zero standards manager at the Smith School, University of Oxford:
“We’re hopefully going to see the key cause of the climate crisis – fossil fuels – directly addressed head on in the text. Of course, without the requisite finance and technology transfer to the global south to help their transition, and without historical polluters stopping extraction first, this will not be equitable. Centring a just approach to transition means understanding that any cover text must echo Paris language of common but differentiated responsibilities.
“The mood from civil society is hopeful from but vigilant: we have an immense opportunity, underlined by UNSG [António] Guterres, to build in a fossil fuel phase-out into the text. Folks are tired: it’s been a long few weeks and a few of the “informal informals” were scheduled for 6am this morning.
Updated
The Beyond Oil & Gas Alliance (BOGA), led by the Danish climate minister, Dan Jørgensen, is giving an update on proceedings as the world continues to wait for a text from the Cop28 presidency.
“The stone age didn’t end because the world ran out of stone. Likewise, the fossil era won’t end because we don’t have oil, gas and coal left. It will only end if we make a conscious political decision. The good news is we have the alternatives. Hopefully at this Cop, we will also be able to make the political decision to make this real so we can stay below 1.5C.”
An alliance of countries, who say they are leaders on the phase-out of fossil fuels, are speaking in turn in Dubai. The French minister for the energy transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher, is calling for language on the fossil fuel phase-out in the text.
“The momentum has come to act and agree on an ambitious and clear language on fossil fuels ... Cop28 should be the Cop where countries agree on ambitious language on phasing out fossil fuels to keep 1.5C alive,” she says.
Susana Muhamad, Colombia’s environment minister, said:
“This is not a transition that will happen from one day to the other. Whole economies and societies are depending on fossil fuels and capital. This will require a just phase-out and an orderly transition ... We could choose the path to keeping 1.5C alive and an orderly economic transition. For this, we are calling as BOGA that this needs strong financial reforms. It will not happen on its own. We need to align the economic and financial systems to the reality of the financial crisis.”
On the question on everyone’s lips at Cop28 ...
“Why hasn’t the text arrived? Because it’s difficult. The presidency is working really hard. We should give them the time that they need,” says Jørgensen.
Updated
More on what people are hoping to see in the new text, which is due to be released imminently by the Cop28 presidency.
Sven Harmeling, global policy lead for the CARE Climate Justice Centre, said:
“The decisions made at COP28 must support communities who are facing the worst impacts of climate change but have done the least to cause it.
“Firstly, we must see progress on fossil fuel phase out in line with the science on 1.5 degrees. This is critical to prevent global warming escalating beyond control.
“Secondly, negotiations on adaptation and climate finance have been extremely difficult. Developing countries cannot be left to meet the costs of climate change without support. Far too often, wealthy countries have failed to keep their promises. The final outcome must include binding agreements to ensure they are implemented on time and in full.
“We remain hopeful that an ambitious agreement can be reached to save lives and livelihoods.”
Updated
At Cop, the focus is mostly on the planetary consequence of not phasing out oil, gas and coal. But often missed in the debate over unabated vs abated fossil fuels, are the real-life direct impacts of fossil fuel extraction and production on life-and-death matters such as air pollution, water scarcity, criminalization, and land grabs, which would continue apace regardless of the miracles promised by carbon capture technologies.
Amnesty International has just published a report into the “criminalization, surveillance, intimidation, harassment, degrading treatment and dispossession of Wet’suwet’en nation land defenders’’ which documents the years-long crackdown against those resisting the construction of Coastal GasLink (CGL) liquified natural gas pipeline through their unceded ancestral territory without their free, prior and informed consent. Amnesty found that Wet’suwet’en land defenders and their supporters were arbitrarily arrested for defending their land and exercising their Indigenous rights and their right to freedom of peaceful assembly - and that the police raids were disproportionate. In addition, Amnesty documented a pattern of aggressive surveillance and harassment against Wet’suwet’en defenders, including discriminatory, degrading and highly culturally insensitive conduct.
The Guardian has been reporting on the criminalization of land, environment and climate activists around the world.
Read more here:
Updated
'Saudi Arabia and allies holding talks hostage'
“Saudi Arabia and allies are holding the talks hostage,” said Mary Robinson, chair of the Elders, on Sunday evening. “Nations obstructing a liveable future must abandon their subterfuge.”
The oil-rich kingdom has for three decades been the biggest single blocker at UN climate summits. Whether the rest of the world – especially the biggest players like China and the US – can apply sufficiently intense pressure in the final days of Cop28 will determine the summit’s success.
The pressure is also on Cop28 president, Sultan Al Jaber, who is also CEO of the UAE’s state oil company. His pitch was that being an oil baron meant he could bring others on board.
The Saudi line in the negotiations on Sunday was to complain: “We have raised our consistent concerns with attempts to attack energy sources instead of emissions.” In other words, fossil fuels are fine, it’s the CO2 emissions that are the problem, and they can be captured and stored.
Few buy that: “We have to phase out fossil fuels, period. We cannot CCS ourselves out of the problem,” said Wopke Hoekstra, the European commissioner for climate action.
Saudi tactics “include inserting words into draft agreements that are considered poison pills by other countries; slow-walking a provision meant to help vulnerable countries adapt to climate change; staging a walkout in a side meeting; and refusing to sit down with negotiators pressing for a phaseout of fossil fuels,” the New York Times reported on Sunday.
“Most countries vary on the degree or speed of how fast you get out of fossil fuels,” said Linda Kalcher, a former UN climate adviser who has been in negotiating rooms this week. Saudi Arabia, she told the newspaper, “doesn’t even want to have the conversation”.
The UN secretary general, António Guterres, didn’t name Saudi Arabia today as he rallied nations to deliver a strong deal, but reading between the lines was not hard. “Ministers and negotiators must move beyond arbitrary red lines, entrenched positions and blocking tactics. It is essential [to] recognise the need to phase out all fossil fuels.”
UN climate chief Simon Stiell had similar thoughts this morning: “Clear the unnecessary tactical blockades out of the way – there have been many along this journey.” Earlier in the week, the Saudi energy minister refused to even contemplate a weaker call to “phase down” fossil fuels. “Absolutely not,” he said.
A report by the Climate Social Science Network, published just ahead of Cop28, set out the long history of Saudi obstruction. “The fossil fuel giant has a 30-year record of obstruction and delay, protecting its national oil and gas sector and seeking to ensure UN climate talks achieve as little as possible, as slowly as possible,” it said.
“It is not difficult to understand Saudi Arabia’s motivation – half its GDP and 70% of export income comes from oil and gas,” the report said. “Despite increased temperatures across Saudi Arabia and falling groundwater supplies, Riyadh has shown little sign of shifting strategy.”
The report also noted: “Riyadh is largely responsible for the absence of any agreed voting rule [at Cop meetings]. In the early 1990s, when the decision-making rules were being devised, Saudi Arabia, together with Opec allies, refused to accept any majority voting rule, as would be the norm in UN bodies.” That means all countries effectively have a veto, unless faced down.
The position of the oil cartel Opec was revealed at Cop28 in leaked letters reported by the Guardian. Opec’s head urged member countries to “reject any text that targets energy, i.e. fossil fuels rather than emissions”, saying “it would be unacceptable that politically motivated campaigns put our people’s prosperity and future at risk”.
Many commentators said the biggest threat to the world’s prosperity and future is the climate crisis and Spanish minister Teresa Ribera, who represents EU governments in the negotiations, called Opec’s lobbying “disgusting”.
Saudi Arabia dominates Opec but another key member, Iraq, refused to accept references to a phase down or phase out of fossil fuels in the negotiations on Sunday. Opec’s head of PR told a campaigner that wildfires and other climate impacts have “nothing to do with oil”.
Australia’s climate change minister Chris Bowen was diplomatic when asked about Saudi Arabia and its allies by my colleague Adam Morton today, saying they had “a very different view” on the push for a phase out of fossil fuels, or even unabated fossil fuels.
“I had a meeting, a long meeting, with the Saudi minister on Sunday where we compared notes – not every country is yet on the same page” he said.
Veteran Cop-watcher Ed King said: “History tells us that when isolated, Riyadh typically buckles.”
Updated
Hello. This is Jon Watts, taking over the Cop28 liveblog. Thanks to my colleague Ajit Naranjan for staying on top of things until now.
Cop28 has been in a holding pattern for most of the day while everyone waits for a new text to land. It is expected imminently, but they have been saying that for some time.
Attention will focus on what it says about fossil fuels – a phase-out, a phase-down, something else or nothing at all? Everyone knows this is the litmus test for this Cop. Will the reaction be euphoria, dispondancy or confusion? We shall soon find out.
I imagine things will get frantic as soon as we know. The Guardian team in Dubai will keep us updated so let’s settle in for what is potentially a very important day in the history of climate negotiations. Please send suggestions, comments or questions to me at jon.watts@theguardian.com or via X (formerly Twitter) @jonathanwatts
Updated
As we wait for the final draft to drop, it’s worth refreshing our tired brains about why the word “unabated” is key to the fight over a fossil fuel phase out – which by and large the major pollution nations like the US, UK, Canada and others are pushing for.
The “unabated” burning of oil, gas and coal results in CO2 or other greenhouse gases being released directly into the atmosphere. The problem is that there is no agreement on what “abated” means. In general, it refers to burning fossil fuels combined with unproven niche technologies like capture and permanent storage of an undefined proportion of the greenhouse gases emitted. This would, warn scientists, give the fossil fuel industry and big polluting countries a get-out clause, when the only real solution is to stop extracting and burning all fossil fuels.
Developing countries with oil, gas and coal resources have warned that the phase out/down of “unabated” fossil fuels will allow wealthy countries to buy CCS technologies and keep extracting, while they would be penalised – which would be unfair and discriminatory.
Nafkote Dabi, Oxfam International’s climate change policy lead, said: “Abatement linked to fossil fuel phase out is a gift served on a silver platter to the fossil fuel industry they will gladly seize to dodge any commitments. It is a dangerous trick that will have catastrophic impacts on communities who are already in a vulnerable position due to climate breakdown. It will risk more land grabs in the Global South and lost opportunities for low-income countries, while allowing rich countries to continue to justify their extraction of other countries’ natural resources.
“Anything other than a full, fair, funded and feminist phase out of fossil fuels will kill this Cop’s goal of keeping 1.5C in sight. Not millions, not billions, but trillions of dollars in new money is needed to make a liveable future a reality, and the richest countries that are largely responsible for the climate crisis must agree to provide the finance needed.”
At a previous Cop in Paris in 2015, world leaders promised to try to stop the planet heating 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures by the end of the century. How close are they to meeting their targets?
The answer, however you cut it, is not close.
The latest temperature assessments of the NDCs and LT-LEDS pledges by countries - and how they fair against the Paris Agreement temperature goals?
— ClimateResource (@ClimateRsrc) December 11, 2023
Surprise: We are still quite far off 1.5C.
Here an overview of all the main studies on it. See more at: https://t.co/9wvwKxuxz7 pic.twitter.com/7V0xar0c7r
Even under the most optimistic scenarios, governments will emit far more planet-heating gas than the atmosphere can safely handle, an analysis of different estimates of end-of-century warming from Climate Resource shows.
If governments meet all the targets they have submitted to the UN for 2030 and beyond – in full, on time and without any accounting tricks or double-counted carbon offsets – the group’s best-estimate of global warming in 2100 is just below 2C. But if countries meet only their 2030 targets and continue on the same trajectory in future decades, the best estimate of projected warming in 2100 is between 2.1C and 2.4C. The actual policies that governments are pursuing today – which are too weak to meet their targets – lead to even higher temperatures.
The scientists found that there has been “limited enhancement” of targets submitted to the UN and “only a minimal lowering of projected temperature outcomes implied by those targets” since Cop27 in Egypt last year.
Leading climate scientist: protecting nature 'decisive'
Human destruction of nature is pushing the planet to a point of no return, and even a phase-out of fossil fuels will not stave off climate breakdown unless we also protect the natural world, one of the world’s top climate scientists has told my colleagues Fiona Harvey and Patrick Greenfield.
Johan Rockström, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, told the Guardian: “Even if we phase out all fossil fuels, if we do not get involved in nature, [the destruction of natural landscapes and habitats] can make us lose what we all have agreed on the safe future for humanity on Earth – that is, to stay within the 1.5C limit. It’s really decisive, that we get it right on nature.”
All the scientific models that show a pathway for the world to stay within the crucial temperature threshold of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels make big assumptions about the retention of natural “carbon sinks”, such as forests, wetlands and peatlands, he said. Without these carbon sinks, the excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would increase even faster.
Speaking from the Cop28 UN climate summit in Dubai, he pointed to the Amazon, where the rainforest is under unprecedented threat from a combination of logging, rising temperatures and regional drought. Many scientists fear the rainforest could be approaching a “tipping point” whereby the forest could give way to savannah.
Research had suggested that the Amazon could tolerate as much as 3C of heating before tipping into a savannah-like state, but that did not take account of the impact of deforestation, said Rockström. When the forest is exploited, the “fishbone” pattern of roads encroaching on the trees creates evaporative flow, which dries out the forest. This is likely to mean that when deforestation reaches about 20% to 25% of the area, it combines with high temperatures to bring the system close to the tipping point to savannah.
Currently, he said, deforestation was at about 17%. “So we’re very close to the ecological tipping point,” he warned. “We have a lot of evidence to say that combination of deforestation, biodiversity loss and temperature rise is a very dangerous path to follow.”
Climate change is bad for your health and some countries will be hit much harder than others. But as my colleague Tobi Thomas reports, these disparities exist within countries too – even rich ones like the UK. According to a new report from the UK Health Security Agency, which examines the effects the climate crisis is having on British health outcomes, the gap is set to grow as the planet gets hotter.
Updated
The UN secretary general, António Guterres, has been speaking to reporters at Cop28, underlining the significance of the next few hours of negotiations.
“We are in a race against time. As I said at the opening of Cop28, our planet is minutes to midnight for the 1.5C limit. And the clock keeps ticking. Cop28 is scheduled to wrap up tomorrow, but there are still large gaps that need to be bridged. Now is the time for maximum ambition and maximum flexibility,” he said.
“Ministers and negotiators must move beyond arbitrary red lines, entrenched positions and blocking tactics. It is time to go into overdrive to negotiate in good faith and rise to the challenge set by Cop president Dr Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber.
“It is time to seek compromise for solutions – without compromising on the science or compromising on the need for the highest ambition. In our fractured and divided world, Cop28 can show that multilateralism remains our best hope to tackle global challenges,” he said.
Guterres has a clear message for ministers on fossil fuels and the required language in the text, a key dividing line between countries in talks.
“It is essential that the Global Stocktake recognises the need to phase out all fossil fuels on a timeframe consistent with the 1.5 degree limit – and to accelerate a just, equitable and orderly energy transition for all,” he said.
“A transition that takes into account the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and reflective capabilities, in light of national circumstances – not to reduce ambition but to combine ambition and equity.”
Ahead of the statement, campaigners lined up with a message for negotiators.
⛓️ Outside the press conference held by @antonioguterres, community members on the front lines of the climate crisis and fossil fuel expansion show their support for his call for a fossil fuel phaseout.
— Climate Action Network International (CAN) (@CANIntl) December 11, 2023
At #COP28, we must hold the line to #EndFossilFuels. pic.twitter.com/hZ9UkIwks8
Teresa Anderson, climate justice lead at nonprofit ActionAid, said the comments from Guterres show that “behind closed doors, the biggest players are stubbornly reiterating red lines instead of choosing a safe future for billions of people”.
She said: “The UN secretary general has nailed his flag to the mast, echoing the demands of developing countries and civil society organisations. In calling for Cop28 to agree the fair timelines and finance that can make a fossil-free future possible for all countries, Guterres is piling pressure on a tiny number of powerful countries.”
Updated
The push for a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty is not a major focus at Cop28, but support for it is gradually building.
The tiny Pacific island nation of Nauru has become the 12th country to back the idea. Colombia, Palau and Samoa called for a treaty earlier during the summit.
Nauru’s secretary for climate change and national resilience, Reagan Moses, said his country was at high risk from rising sea levels and worsening extreme weather and ocean acidification.
“Our marine port is our island’s lifeline, without which we would be almost entirely cut off from food, medicine, and almost all other necessities. This is not hypothetical, as even today, storms can cut us off from shipments many weeks at a time,” he said.
“We are ready to do our part in making the Pacific a fossil fuel-free zone. In this regard, Nauru would like to use this opportunity to join others in calling for a treaty to phase out fossil fuel production.”
UN climate change head on Cop28 agreement: 'Strategic landmines that blow it up for one, blow it up for all'
Simon Stiell, head of the UN climate change body in charge of Cop, has called out “tactical blockades” and “strategic landmines” as the talks enter their final phase. “We do not have a moment to lose in this crucial home stretch.”
Speaking to journalists on Monday morning, including my colleague Fiona Harvey, Stiell said the remaining areas for negotiation had “narrowed significantly” to leave just two issues. The first is how high the ambition to mitigate climate change is. The second is how willing countries are to back the transition with the support it needs.
“Let me assure you – from our viewpoint at UN climate change – the highest levels of ambition are possible for both … But if we reduce on one, we reduce our ability to get either.”
To get a meaningful deal, he said, negotiators need to “clear the unnecessary tactical blockades out of the way.”
“The Global Stocktake needs to help all countries get out of this mess. Any strategic landmines that blow it up for one, blow it up for all.”
He also urged negotiators to reject incremental steps, respect every party’s seat at the table and keep all eyes on the prize.
“One thing is for certain,” he said. “‘I win, you lose’ is a recipe for collective failure. Ultimately it is 8 billion people’s security that is at stake.”
Teresa Anderson, global climate justice lead at ActionAid International, said Stiell had sent a clear message that “the only way that Cop28 can end our planet’s destructive addiction to fossil fuels is through rich countries delivering the finance to make this happen on the ground”.
She added: “Calling out ‘tactical blockages’, ‘landmines’ and ‘I win – you lose’ brinkmanship was a less-than-subtle rebuke to the powerful counties who are putting a narrow set of national interests above those of humanity. His plea echoes the fervent wish of everyone around the world – for Cop28 to be a pivotal moment in history, that we can look back on in pride.”
Updated
While we wait for the text to drop, we are asking delegates what they hope to see in it.
Claire Charlo, an indigenous representative from the Flathead reservation in Montana USA, said it was vital that all voices were heard.
“Indigenous knowledge needs to be included in language on carbon markets, indigenous voices need to be heard in agriculture negotiations, and we need to phase out fossil fuels. Also, loss and damage is crucial.”
Sarah Millar, with a climate philanthropy organization, said her one ask was the phase-out of fossil fuels. “If we don’t, 1.5C is bust. It would be an amazing signal from the Cop here in the UAE – with all of the dynamics of the host, the suggestion of the conflicts of interest. It would really put some fantastic momentum to land that here.”
Vivian Nerea Atakos from the Kenyan delegation said she wanted the role of women to be recognized.
“I was following gender. It is not part of the GST [Global Stocktake] yet. It’s really important with people from the developing world – their economies are driven by women, they are playing a huge role, we have to take care of their needs. If we talk about adapting to climate change and building resilience, we must provide resources to these people.”
Zaighum Abbas, from the Asian People’s movement on debt and development, said: “As someone from the Global South - and as someone who has experienced massive consequences due to climate change such as the floods last year - we want to see a new, non debt-creating climate finance mechanism, managed not by the World Bank but by an independent entity managed by the Global South. We believe that the phase out of fossil fuels cannot be achieved without establishing such robust climate finance.”
Arati Poudel, from the same organisation, said: “The one thing that I ask is the complete phase out of fossil fuels. It should be rapid, just and equitable with enough finance for the just energy transition.”
Lina Ahmed from nonprofit Germanwatch said: “I want an ambitious goal on adaptation, an overarching strong target that protects people and nature. Also, strong targets on means of implementation. Without that, it will just be a symbolic framework. Progress has been slow on adaptation. An unambitious outcome here would be a lost opportunity.”
Her colleague Rixa Schwarz said: “We also need a standing agenda item for the global goal on adaptation in order to continue the discussion in a streamlined and powerful manner for the benefit of those most affected by climate change.”
Two years ago, when the former Australian prime minister Scott Morrison gave in to diplomatic pressure and turned up at the Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow, the story of Australia’s response to the climate crisis was straightforward. There wasn’t one.
Morrison mustered a bit of half-hearted rhetoric and re-heated climate funding, and suffered through the fallout of French president Emmanuel Macron accusing him of lying, but did nothing to dispel the view that Australia had no meaningful climate policies and was a roadblock at the talks not far removed from the Russians and Saudis.
Things are more complicated now. Australia has competing climate stories, each with an element of truth.
Read the full analysis of the two Australias at Cop28 here:
Everyone is waiting for the latest draft text to drop here in Dubai, with gossip swirling about what the language will be on fossil fuels in the latest version. It will be a moment of truth for the climate summit.
Cop28’s president, Sultan Al Jaber, called an unscheduled press conference for 10.30am local time, only to cancel it a few minutes later with the world’s media gathered.
The conference centre is noticeably quieter this morning. Many negotiators will have had late nights and there are almost no side events scheduled.
A burst of excitement at #COP28 as Sultan Al Jaber calls an unplanned press conference, only to cancel it 15 minutes later. We continue to wait. pic.twitter.com/HunqoyH8FT
— Patrick Greenfield (@pgreenfielduk) December 11, 2023
With little to do, some journalists have taken to playing games together in the media centre.
Waiting for the text in the #COP28 media centre pic.twitter.com/u1r2ShFCoz
— Patrick Greenfield (@pgreenfielduk) December 11, 2023
In the conference’s blue zone, a dance to support nuclear power is underway.
A pro-nuclear dance event is taking place in the blue zone at #Cop28
— Patrick Greenfield (@pgreenfielduk) December 11, 2023
“Power, power to the people, the atom makes us strong,” they sing. pic.twitter.com/zGNEsNIBQe
Updated
Monday morning at Cop28 has mostly been spent waiting for the promised presidency text. This will draw together the strands of all the major issues at these talks – the future of fossil fuels, and renewable energy; adaptation; the mitigation work programme, by which countries update their emissions commitments – and many of the more minor but still important ones, such as the regulation of carbon markets.
The presidency spent most of yesterday either in meetings with individual countries and big country groupings, or in the majlis session, a broad meeting of ministers and heads of delegations at which every country was invited by Sultan Al Jaber to bring its “solutions”.
The text will not be the end of the story – it will be subject to close scrutiny and then wrangling by all of the countries present. The fault lines remain where they have been: a fossil fuel phase-out is still potentially on the cards, but faces strong opposition from Saudi Arabia and a handful of its allies, though some important countries including China have softened and are seeking compromise. China and the US are locked in close negotiations, with both Xie Zhenhua and John Kerry expressing their mutual amity and commitment. But whether this translates into the “engine” of change and progress in the climate that some are hoping remains difficult to predict. Both men are said to want a legacy of commitment to the Cop, but what that means in practice for the climate is unclear.
Meanwhile country pavilions are closing as the talks embark on their final official full day of mediations before the scheduled end at 11am on Tuesday. Talks are almost certain to go past that point, given the sheer volume of issues and text yet to be closed. It’s possible that agreement will not be reached on some of the technical issues up for debate here, such as regulating the carbon markets. Some of them could be allowed to drift over to next year’s conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, if necessary. But on the main issues – fossil fuels and adaptation – there is no choice for counties but to slug it out to the bitter end.
Updated
UN secretary general: 'End the fossil fuel age. Deliver climate justice.'
The head of the United Nations, António Guterres, has called on world leaders to “end the fossil fuel age” as he returns to Cop28 for the final days of the summit.
I have come back to #COP28, because we are on the brink of climate disaster & this conference must mark a turning point.
— António Guterres (@antonioguterres) December 10, 2023
I am here to renew my urgent appeal to leaders:
Recommit to the 1.5°C warming limit.
End the fossil fuel age.
Deliver climate justice.
Make #COP28 count.
One of the big fights that has been taking place over the last week is whether countries will agree to phase out fossil fuels or just phase them down. The science is clear that – however little is to be used decades from now – the amount of coal, oil and gas being burned must fall much faster if world leaders are to honour their promise of keeping global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures.
Updated
These were some of the main developments yesterday at Cop28 in Dubai:
The conference president, Sultan Al Jaber, warned that “failure is not an option” as he prepares a final package for delegates.
Vulnerable countries were unhappy at the weak language on climate adaptation.
Human Rights Day was marked by civil society complaints about restrictions on protest.
Experts were worried that carbon emissions trading could become a “black box’ due to inadequate transparency.
Global food production will become “problematic” even at 1.5C, a US envoy has predicted.
Argentina was due to swear in a new climate-denying president who has reportedly put the tourism minister in charge of the environment.
Updated
Opening summary
Good morning! This is Ajit Niranjan, on the 10th day (if we don’t count Thursday’s rest day) of the 28th Conference of the Parties climate change summit, or Cop28.
The Guardian will be liveblogging the negotiations throughout, as always, and we look forward to your contributions: please email me on ajit.niranjan@theguardian.com with thoughts and suggestions. Jonathan Watts (jonathan.watts@theguardian.com) will be taking over later on.
Yesterday, the Cop president, Sultan Al Jaber, warned the summit that ambition must be stepped up. “The time has come for us to switch gears. We need a text agreed by everyone on greenhouse gases … It boils down to the need for all parties to come to terms (with the fact) that we will deliver the highest ambition. All parties should come to terms with this fact.”
Now that the final stage of the negotiations have begun we are close to finding out just how ambitious this Cop will be.
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