That’s it from us on the blog for today, thanks for following along. We’ll be up and blogging again tomorrow as soon as there is a text to look at. That may be in the next couple of hours, or may be tomorrow: a spokesperson for the presidency has just issued this statement:
“Overnight and throughout today, the COP28 President and his team have been engaging in extensive consultations with a wide representation of negotiating groups and Parties. This is to ensure everyone is heard, and all views are considered. He is determined to deliver a version of the text that has the support of all Parties. Consultations will continue until 03:00AM GST.”
In the meantime these were the main events today:
Politicians and delegates from the UK reacted with fury as it emerged that climate change minister Graham Stuart had flown home from the summit, ostensibly to shore up the government’s vote on Rwanda. The government said that Richard Benyon had come out to cover him, and that he would be returning. If the summit does end tomorrow as the presidency hopes, of course, that will be a long wasted journey.
Our data team calculated that Stuart will have emitted between 467 and 499 kg of CO2 – assuming that he flew on a passenger plane and that his plane was totally full. That’s approximately the average annual carbon emissions of a citizen of Mali or Kenya or Tanzania.
There were worries that Cop was going to collapse and political economist Michael Jacobs argued this might be a good thing: “So if nothing really significant would be lost by a breakdown of the Cop, would anything be gained? Yes. It would be a much bigger global media story than a fudge. Front-page news. The story: that climate change is now a battle between a fossil future and a non-fossil one.”
And more details emerged of country positions on phase out
See you tomorrow! Or sooner…
As the day ends in Dubai, Cop28 is in limbo. Will the revised decision text expected early on Tuesday finally deliver the clear call on fossil fuels that many countries believe is essential to taming the climate crisis?
Analysis indicates that 127 countries back some kind of phase out, up from 80 countries last year.
Over 72% of countries have expressed direct support for a strong outcome on fossil fuels at #COP28.
— Romain Ioualalen (@Rlalen) December 12, 2023
Tha large majority of remaining countries are rightfully asking for differentiation and support in the phase out.
Will @COP28_UAE listen to them or to a handful of blockers? https://t.co/zpMfRDsvPf
The pause is leaving time for some reflection.
How will we explain to our children and grandchildren that unfortunately, we couldn’t leave them a livable planet because a few petro-states vetoed phasing out fossil fuels?
— Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣 (@rahmstorf) December 12, 2023
Others wonder if the lack of funds from rich countries to enable low and middle income nations to transition to green energy is the real problem.
The real failure isn't the lack of mention #phaseout of #fossilfuel, but that historical emitters failed once again to put enough means of implementation on the table to assure the LMICs that such a phase out will be just and equitable. Words without money is just paper. #COP28
— Dr. Aditi Mukherji (@aditimukherji) December 12, 2023
The Global Campaign to Demand Climate Justice has an uncompromising message for delegates as they work towards the summit’s finale: “Cop28 is running into overtime, but your time is up to deliver climate justice.”
“There is now only time for acting—urgently, fairly, and justly. The words “fossil fuels” in a text are meaningless if the rest of those pages are riddled with loopholes that not only enable but exacerbate the era of fossil fuels. Climate action is weakened if those who are most responsible are not held to account to lead by example. A phaseout is useless without the tools needed to actually achieve it. Climate action is pointless if it condemns billions to death and destruction.”
Bhavreen Kandhari, the co-founder of Warrior Moms in India, has a different but equally important message, reflecting on the slogans displayed across the Cop28 site, such as “Think without limits”.
“Mothers bring a heartfelt message to Cop, using the power of love to secure a safe future for our children worldwide. Despite the resonance of our shared sentiments being printed on every wall, flag, and message at Cop28, the pressing question remains: why aren’t these messages translating into action? Why isn’t there a prioritisation of our children’s health and future?”
Why the delay in action when messages are the same, from parents, citizens, doctors, scientists, UN, #COP28, all? #FromOurHearts💙 #KidsFirst pic.twitter.com/0O8HjzlomK
— Warrior Moms (@Warriormomsin) December 10, 2023
Fear of stranded assets and destabilisation behind Saudi Arabia’s resistance to phase-out
Saudi Arabia and its allies have emerged as a key obstacle for the super-majority of countries calling for a phase out of fossil fuels by 2050 at the COP28 talks.
The world’s biggest oil producing nation is understood to be opposed to toughening the draft conclusions which currently propose only voluntary reductions in fossil fuel production and consumption. But it’s hardly the first time Saudi Arabia has opposed the energy transition.
Dan Marks, a research fellow in energy security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said major oil producing nations have always been wary of policies which aim to squeeze the supply of fossil fuels because “they have interests they need to protect”.
For Saudi Arabia these interests include almost 300 billion barrels of oil in their vast reserves. The kingdom represents almost a fifth of the world’s oil reserves, and is the de facto leader of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries which together represent almost 80% of the world’s oil.
The fundamental premise of a fossil fuel phase out would destabilise these petrostates by setting in motion a series of policy changes among global regulators, heightening investor concerns over so-called ‘stranded assets’, Marks told the Guardian.
“This is why the world’s most important oil producing countries have always said ‘you tackle demand, you don’t tackle supply’,” he said.
Others have noted that Saudi Arabia and its allies in the Opec oil cartel have also begun to take aim at any signal to the global market which suggests that demand could be phased out too.
Opec has also consistently underestimated the roll out of electric vehicles in its official forecasts, which are used by governments to inform their policies.
Its forecasts for the number of electric vehicles on the roads by 2022 were too low by an average of almost 60% over the period 2015-2021, according to a recent report by Zero Carbon Analytics. In 2021, the cartel’s forecasts for the global electric vehicles fleet just one year ahead were wrong by 49%, the report found.
Amy Kong, the author of the report, said the forecasts were “wildly wrong year after year” in what appears to be an “underhand attempt by oil producers to persuade investors and governments that fossil fuels have a future”.
Earlier this year Opec branded forecasts from the International Energy Agency that demand for fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas would peak before 2030 as “extremely risky,” “impractical” and “ideologically driven”.
It accused the IEA of setting the global energy system up to “fail spectacularly” and bring “energy chaos on a potentially unprecedented scale” with “dire consequences for economies”.
After a day of speculation over when the draft or final text will land, there’s a sense now that, most likely, it will arrive in the morning. Journalists and delegates are slowly heading out of the summit centre, and towards their hotels, with phones switched onto loud.
My colleague Fiona Harvey says: '“Nobody is expecting it any time soon and are expecting to reconvene tomorrow morning, which would be normal practice when it gets quite late at Cops on the first night after the deadline.”
Blocking fossil fuel phase out ‘a massive own-goal’ for Saudi Arabia’s 2034 World Cup
Saudi Arabia’s blocking of a call to phase out fossil fuels is a “massive own-goal” for the football World Cup it will host in 2034, according to climate scientists. Extreme heat and air pollution will make it unbearable for the players and supporters, they said.
The oil-rich kingdom is a key opponent of widespread calls for a fossil fuel phase out, which scientists say is necessary to keep the 1.5C limit for global heating within reach. Saudi Arabia’s football clubs spent almost $1bn on players this summer, significantly more than the $700m pledged by all countries at Cop28 for the loss and damage fund, to help vulnerable countries recover from climate disasters. Saudi Arabia made no contribution.
“The health and well-being of billions of people around the world is already under threat from the burning of fossil fuels,” said Dr Friederike Otto, co-founder of the World Weather Attribution group. “When we look ahead to major cultural milestones such as the 2034 World Cup, extreme heat and toxic air will make it unbearable for the athletes, but also for the millions of people who have always come together to celebrate moments like this.”
“Blocking a fossil phaseout [at Cop28] will be a massive own-goal from Saudi Arabia, as it would demonstrate a disregard for the health and welfare of footballers and the majority of the world’s population,” she said.
Prof Richard Betts, at the University of Exeter, UK, said: “Climate hazards such as extreme heat and humidity, drought, heavy rainfall and sea-level rise are increasingly seen across many parts of the world and in areas like the Middle-East, Africa, and Asia will be more widespread and more severe in the coming decades.”
“Even in wealthier nations with better infrastructure such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, rising temperatures will have a major impact on their own populations and people visiting,” he said. “For example, the Fifa World Cup in Saudi Arabia, if played in the summer of 2034, would see temperatures of around 50C which will significantly increase the risk of heat stress for players, families and supporters, and ruling out some people from going.”
Maria Neira, director of public health and environment at the World Health Organization, said: “Climate change has been identified as potentially the greatest health challenge of the 21st century. We urgently need all leaders at Cop28 to call for a phase out of fossil fuels and safeguard the health of global populations from the climate crisis.”
Armenians are deeply concerned about the decision to hold the Cop29 climate talks in Azerbaijan just months after what has been referred to as an “ethnical cleansing” of tens of thousands of Armenians from a breakaway province in the country.
In September an estimated 120,000 Armenians fled Nagorno-Karabakh – known to Armenians as Artsakh – after Azerbaijan’s military launched an “anti-terrorist” campaign on the region, which had been run by a local ethnic Armenian government. Armenia’s prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, has alleged the Armenian exodus amounted to “a direct act of an ethnic cleansing and depriving people of their motherland”.
Azerbaijan has since pledged to respect the rights of ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. But Armenians said the decision to hold the next UN climate talks in the country has effectively barred them from attending.
Arshak Makichyan, a Russian Armenian climate activist, who now lives in exile in Germany because of his opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, told the Guardian the decision to hold Cop29 in Azerbaijan was a legitimisation of ethnic cleansing. “For me, as an ethnic Armenian, this means that I will not be able to go to this conference. Moreover, hatred towards Armenians has been cultivated in Azerbaijan for decades. To go there would be dangerous and scary for any Armenian.
“It is so strange that not even a few months have passed since everyone forgot about the horrors of the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh and another mass deportation of Armenians …
Laura Cwiertnia, a German Armenian climate journalist working for Die Zeit, wrote on X/Twitter: “As a climate journalist, I can’t relax and travel to the next world climate conference. Because the dictator of the host country Azerbaijan says about Armenian people like me: ‘We will hunt them like dogs’.
“And before someone tells me that nothing will happen to me: that’s not the point. (I probably wouldn’t even be allowed into the country because I was doing my job as a critical journalist.)“
The long term finance text has been published. This is not the main text, but one of the supporting work threads that has been going on, looking at how climate finance can be scaled up, and how to mobilise the cash that developing countries will need.
So far reaction has been slow to come through on the new text. My colleague Fiona Harvey has taken a look and says it appears to be delaying most of the main decisions, and is hearing that some countries feel the text is pretty weak. It may be accepted, nevertheless. We’ll keep our ears out for more reaction.
Updated
So what was the carbon footprint of our climate change minister’s dash to vote?
We asked our data team to try to work out the emissions of the flight back from Cop28 that the UK’s climate change minister Graham Stuart took earlier, when he headed back from the crucial climate talks in Dubai to take part in the vote on Rwanda.
Our colleague Michael Goodier cracked the numbers and has concluded that Stuart will have emitted between 467 and 499 kg of CO2 – assuming that he flew on a passenger plane and that his plane was totally full. That’s approximately the average annual carbon emissions of a citizen of Mali or Kenya or Tanzania.
Both British Airways and Emirates offer flights from Dubai International to London. A flight on the British Airways Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner – which seats 256 – emits roughly 119,600kg of CO2, while a flight on the Emirates Airbus A380-861 (seats 519) emits around 258,800kg, according to data from Eurocontrol.
Assuming he flies back to the summit after voting, Mr Stuart will have in total emitted between 1,868 and 1,996 kg CO2 on his four Cop28 flights. That’s around a third of the total annual emissions of the average UK citizen – and there are 48 countries worldwide where the average person emits less CO2 than Mr Stuart’s flights.
Previous research has found that just 1% of English residents were responsible for nearly a fifth of all flights abroad.
Meanwhile, the prime minister’s official spokesman said: “This government is not anti-flying. We don’t lecture the public to that regard. The most important thing is the outcomes of Cop, which minister Stuart is obviously leading for the UK on.”
Updated
Still waiting for the next text to arrive, with press conferences being cancelled all over the place. Delegates are trying to get a bit more comfortable… and a few snoozes are being had around the peripheries of the talks.
A cat has somehow got into the talks.
Packing up.
A bit of fresh air.
And my colleague Patrick Greenfield has found some nice big comfy chairs.
Is this Cop going to be Paris … or Copenhagen?
My colleague Jonathan Watts looks back at previous Cops, and wonders if it might be time to abandon this system?
Since the first Conference of the Parties in Berlin in 1995, every subsequent COP has had a character and a mood of its own. The high point was Paris in 2015, when euphoric delegates celebrated an ambitious agreement to cut emissions and limit global heating to between 1.5C and 2C. The low point was Copenhagen in 2009, when world leaders scuttled home after rancorous talks that came perilously close to collapse.
Where will Cop28 sit on this sliding scale? Negotiations are still ongoing, but with nations deeply divided and entrenched after the official closing point and the UK delegation’s leader going home early, many veteran COP watchers are asking whether Dubai could set such a new low that it might prompt change.
As we have reported earlier in this blog, the former US vice president Al Gore tweeted yesterday that the conference is “on the verge of complete failure”. while the longtime COP observer Michael Jacobs, a political economist at the University of Sheffield, suggested that a breakdown of talks could be preferable to the current deal on offer. In a social media thread, Jacobs says “It seems more or less impossible now to get a wording that clearly calls for the ‘phase out’ goal, as demanded by the small islands and the EU. The OPEC states won’t agree to it, and the UAE (a member of OPEC) won’t insist on it from the chair.” Rather than a fudged compromise that effectively abandons the Paris Agreement targets, he feels a collapse of the talks would at least galvanise the global debate about the climate, which has slipped off the front pages.
“COP28 has become a shameless exercise in the fight against climate change. But can we afford to walk out?” asks an opinion article in the Los Angeles Times today by scientist Michael Mann and Susan Joy Hassol, the director of Climate Communication. Their answer is no. The COP summit process, they say, has been “co-opted by the fossil fuel industry and become rife with conflicts, corruption and corporate greenwashing,” but, “deeply flawed as COP is, it’s the only existing framework for global climate negotiations.”
So what to do when the only climate game in town has been co-opted by the fossil-fuel industry? Mann and Hassol argue for reform: majority voting rather than consensus, sanctions for countries that thwart the phase out of fossil fuels and a bar on oil executives and petrostates running and hosting the summits.
Guardian columnist George Monbiot had earlier proposed a similarly radical shake-up. As he noted, only two out of the 27 climate summits to date could be called even a half-success (Paris and Kyoto in 1997). “If any other process had a 3.7% success rate, it would be abandoned in favour of something better,’ he argues. As well as banning oil and beef industry lobbyists and changing the voting system, he calls for the COP system to be bypassed by a series of binding treaties on fossil fuels and deforestation that are supported by a new International Climate Agency, modelled on the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Many other ideas for reform are out there. Almost all would involve a degree of trauma in the all-too-cosy United Nations system. Hard-fought gains on loss-and-damage, adaptation, and climate finance for developing nations would need to be protected. But the need for change is evident from that fact that global heating emissions continue to rise almost three decades after the process to stop them began - although some analysts believe they will finally have peaked this year - or next year at worst.
In the northern hemisphere, this summer was the hottest on record and July was probably the warmest month in 120,000 years. Even so, with temperatures set to rise for decades, probably beyond 3C, this will probably be one of the coolest years in the rest of our lives.
The urgency could not be greater. Does that justify a walkout? Let’s see what the delegates in Dubai come up with in the coming hours and days. A sense of crisis can sometimes prove a negotiating tactic and the prelude to a better deal. Right now, however, this COP is looking a lot more like Copenhagen than Paris.
More than 1,000 scientists have now signed a letter stating: “For all intents and purposes, moving towards the phase-out of fossil fuel combustion is necessary to keep the 1.5C goal of the Paris agreement within reach.”
The letter was drawn up after the Guardian revelation that the Cop28 president, Sultan Al Jaber, had said shortly before the summit that: “There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5C.”
A separate letter, from 1000 scientific experts on ice caps and glaciers, says:
“This has been a year of climate disasters and ice loss. Our message is that this insanity cannot and must not continue. We must prevent even worse impacts from a collapsing cryosphere. We need a [decision] with clear guidelines to make 1.5C a reality; a path to phase out fossil fuels; and financial mechanisms to support climate action, adaptation, and loss and damage.
“Otherwise, world leaders are de facto deciding to burden humanity for centuries to millennia by displacing hundreds of millions of people from flooding coastal settlements; depriving societies of life-giving freshwater resources, and disrupting delicately-balanced polar ocean and mountain ecosystems. The melting point of ice pays no attention to rhetoric, only to our actions.”
Updated
What does means of implementation actually mean and why is it so crucial?
My colleague Nina Lakhani currently out in Dubai, has been digging into the critical issue of implementation, which has become a real big sticking point in the talks.
She explains:
If there is one thing that developing countries are united in at Cop28, it’s the demand for developed countries to honour their legally binding obligations under the Paris agreement on providing developing countries with the means of implementation. It was the key theme that was raised again and again on Monday night in response to the global stocktake draft text.
South Africa’s environment minister, Barbara Creecy, speaking about her country’s experience with implementing a just energy transition framework, said, “Today we have received less than 10% of the support of what we need between now and 2030 for the implementation plan. For many developing countries, particularly in the African continent, the gap is not in ambition; it is in the question of means of implementation.”
Brazil’s delegate said: “It is very difficult to do something without the necessary means. Let’s talk about the means first. And it is on the basis of those means we will take up our ambition for climate justice. We have managed to reduce emissions by saving forests. We cannot act alone. We need everyone to act. The means of implementation has to be aligned with our decisions and ambition.”
So what does means of implementation actually mean – and why is it so crucial?
The architecture of the Paris agreement requires each country to create and implement a nationally determined contribution (NDC) that include mitigation, adaptation and the means – finance, technology transfer, and capacity building – by which this would be implemented. The current NDCs (2021 to 2030) include country-specific climate targets and plans that are both unconditional and conditional or dependent on international processes.
How developed countries are obliged to help Chad or Nepal or Barbados meet their NDC targets is dealt with under articles 9, 10 and 11 of the Paris agreement. Article 9 states that developed countries shall provide and mobilise finance, while other countries can voluntarily do so. Article 10 states that support, including financial support, shall be provided to developing countries for technology development and transfer in order to improve resilience to climate change and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Article 11 deals with enhancing capacity-building of developing countries, in particular the least developed countries and those most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, such as small island nations.
So when you hear blocs such as the G77 plus China (135 countries) and the like-minded developing countries (LMDC, 20 nations) bang on about implementation of the Paris agreement, they are often referring to the above obligations which have mostly not been met.
As it stands, developing countries need $5tn to $11tn to implement the current NDCs, which expire in 2030, according to the UNFCCC – which said that this huge funding gap only covered 30% of the actual costs.
So that’s partly why developing countries simply cannot accept a fossil fuel phase-out – or any new target – without means of implementation, as they’re already unable to even fund their current mitigation and adaptation plans (all while loss and damage costs are spiralling).
Now to the global stocktake (GST), which is the five-yearly required assessment of the collective progress on Paris commitments. The outcome of this is so important because it will guide the next round of NDCs, which have to be submitted by 2025.
This is getting wonky but bear with me for just one more article – 9.5 – which requires developed countries to provide upfront information on what public resources will be available – to help inform poorer countries’ NDCs. But this just hasn’t happened. And remember the $100bn a year for climate action to be mobilised by 2020, which the US came up with in Copenhagen but has never been delivered. Well, this number was more or less pulled out of thin air, so next year countries must agree on a bigger, needs-based annual financing sum New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG). Developed countries say all meaningful talk of finance should be postponed until then, while developing countries say they need details on finance and means of implementation in the GST, global goal on adaptation, and just transition programme, otherwise they are simply being set up to fail.
As Meena Raman from the Third World Network in Malaysia – who was incredibly helpful in helping me to understand this topic – says: “Without means of implementation, it’s all just words.”
Updated
A government spokesperson has told us that Stuart “will continue to be the lead UK minister for negotiations and remains in constant contact with the UK lead climate negotiator and Lord Benyon, with any final decisions agreed with him.”
The way it’s going to work, apparently, is that:
The UK lead climate negotiator, Alison Campbell, will continue to lead negotiations for the UK at Cop28.
Stuart will be responsible for the final decision on key issues and retains responsibility for UK negotiations overall.
Lord Benyon, representing the UK, is meeting key representatives from other countries, including the US climate envoy, John Kerry, the Tuvalu minister for finance, the Norwegian foreign minister and the UAE climate change under-secretary.
He will also attend formal set-piece meetings with Campbell and can represent the UK at the closing plenary.
Benyon, meanwhile, has posted a tweet about being hard at work in Dubai – but eagle-eyed Leo Hickman of Carbon Brief has pointed out that while Benyon sits alone with his text, Teresa Ribera of the EU and John Kerry of the US are deep in conversation behind him. “All this picture ‘says’ is that the UK is isolated from the key players,” argues Hickman.
All this picture "says" is that the UK is isolated from the key players - Ribera (EU) and Kerry (US) – in deep discussion behind him... https://t.co/cEjv3oSUIb
— Leo Hickman (@LeoHickman) December 12, 2023
Updated
As delegates in Dubai await a revised text, following the much-criticised draft issued on Monday, here is a summary of what countries said at a closed-door meeting last night, spelling out their concerns:
Those clearly opposing tougher language on fossil fuels:
Saudi Arabia (on behalf of the 22 Arab Group countries): The draft text is a good base to work from. Science does not predict or project any necessity to completely phase out fossil fuelsby 2050, in a world of 1.5C (this row dominated week one of Cop28). There is a clear indication from the science for a deep, rapid and sustained reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
Qatar: The draft text impacts on the sovereign right for sustainable development. The need is to reduce emissions and not eliminate the sources of emissions, ie fossil fuels.
Bolivia (speaking for Like Minded Developing Countries, which includes oil producers like Saudi Arabia): There are huge issues with the text on reducing fossil fuels - it cannot prescribe the actions of countries, as the Paris agreement is based on voluntary, bottom-up action. Iran also made this point.
Those clearly backing tougher language on fossil fuels:
European Union: This text, or anything close to it, is unacceptable. Picking and choosing between options to cut emissions from fossil fuels is not good enough. Germany was among the countries saying that the statement in the text that global emissions must fall by 43% by 2030, 60% by 2035, and be net zero by 2050 is contradicted by the weak statements saying only that countries “could” choose to reduce fossil fuel use.
Samoa (on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States): The text on only “reducing” fossil fuels, not phasing them out, is utterly insufficient and falls way below keeping 1.5C alive. Tuvalu also spoke: it’s a matter of survival. The Dominican Republic said Cop28 could be the Cop where 1.5C dies.
Colombia (on behalf of Latin America and the Caribbean group AILAC): The text recognises the urgency of the climate crisis, but falls short on action, particularly on action by 2030, the first milestone that cannot be missed to keep under 1.5C of global heating. It was also very worried about the lack of finance for adaptation.
Bangladesh (on behalf of the 46 Least Developed Countries): Keeping under 1.5C was called the “north star” of the talks [by Cop28 president, Sultan Al Jaber] but is missing from the text, which is weak and contradictory.
Australia (on behalf of the Umbrella group, which includes the US, UK and Norway): The group represents some of the largest fossil fuel consumers and producers but it is time to transition away. The text has energy options that “could” be taken: we came here to agree on what we “should” do. The draft text does not send the clear signal to the world we need.
US: The text does not meet the test of keeping below 1.5C degrees. Many countries have called for the world to largely phase out fossil fuels by 2050, with a critical reduction in this decade. If we don’t do what we need to do by 2030, there’s no net zero by 2050, then no 1.5C.
Norway: Despite being a major exporter of oil and gas, Norway backs a “phase out” of fossil fuels. Carbon capture and storage has been used in Norway for almost 30 years but we can also testify it is not the solution to everything. It should be reserved for hard-to-abate sectors (like cement and steel).
The others:
Cuba (speaking on behalf of G77+ China group, which has 135 member nations): The text fails to recognise fully that rich nations must act on climate first, and help poorer nations to act. Brazil also made these points.
China: It took developed countries more than 150 years to peak, therefore there should not be a reference to global carbon emissions peaking in 2025 in the text.
India: The most crucial element missing in the text is historical cumulative emissions.
Pakistan: The provision of climate finance is pivotal for achieving anything. The transition to cleaner energy sources has been ready for many years - it needs billions of dollars.
Updated
It is now being reported that Graham Stuart – the UK’s minister for climate change – will be flying back to Dubai again after the Rwanda vote to rejoin the talks.
That will be, according to Sam Coates of Sky, a 6,813-mile round trip. In the meantime, Richard Benyon, the minister of state for climate, environment and energy, is holding the fort.
Apparently there was only a gap of a few hours between Stuart and Benyon, and the talks were not “left uncovered in order to try to win the Rwanda vote”.
UK govt insists it hasn't left COP uncovered to try to win Rwanda vote later.
— Aubrey Allegretti (@breeallegretti) December 12, 2023
Graham Stuart (energy minister) flew home from the UAE in the early hours of this morning.
I'm told Richard Benyon (a Lords minister in DEFRA) arrived at 8am to take his place.
There was a few hours…
Handily Benyon is in the Lords and so his absence won’t affect the Rwanda vote at all. Presumably that is just a fortunate coincidence. When we asked the UK government to comment on Stuart’s return earlier, they told us: “Minister Stuart has returned to the UK to attend parliament in his role as an MP. There will continue to be full official representation on the ground at the summit and Minister Stuart will continue to be the lead UK minister for negotiations with any final decisions agreed with him.”
Updated
As delegates and journalists brace themselves for another long night, spare a thought for the wonderful workers at Cop28, who have been working extremely long hours over the last fortnight. The security staff, who come from a range of countries in Africa and Asia, are on their feet all day and mostly live in company accommodation. One young Ugandan man said: “Of course I would rather be at home, but we have economic needs.”
Many of the cafe staff who’ve been sustaining us with coffee and sandwiches usually work - and live - at the World Trade Centre in the north of the city, and so have been spending a couple of hours each day traveling to the Expo site. One cafe worker, originally from the Philippines, has been leaving home at 3.30am and getting back after 9pm; another guy from Pakistan said door-to-door he was putting in 16 hours each day. They are all exhausted, but today is the last day for those working in the media center at least. If the talks overrun, which looks inevitable, journalists will have to get their caffeine elsewhere.
Updated
Emissions from Canadian wildfires in 2023 broke records
Emissions from Canadian wildfires in 2023 were the highest ever recorded anywhere in the world, the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service revealed, in a reminder of what is at stake at Cop28 as global temperatures continue to rise.
The Canadian fires started in Alberta and Saskatchewan in early May and continued into October, engulfing 18m hectares and discharging the equivalent of 1,761m tonnes of carbon dioxide - almost five times the average of the past 20 years. The smoke was transported over a huge region, bringing hazy skies to New York, the British Isles and southern Europe.
In its annual report, Copernicus said this unprecedented hot year also saw the Europe Union’s largest-ever forest fire in northern Greece, deadly fires in Hawaii and Chile, and fires in the Siberian region of Russia, from which smoke reached the North Pole for the first time in history. Bolivia also saw a dramatic spike in fires as it became one of the fastest deforesting regions in the world. At last night’s negotiations, the Bolivian delegates strongly resisted attempts to aim for zero deforestation by 2030, which Brazil has promised to achieve.
All of this is occurring at global temperatures that are 1.3C above pre-industrial levels, according to the UK Met Office. As things stand in the current Cop28 negotiations, scientists predict the world will heat up by more than 3C, which would bring far more severe fire activity.
Updated
Ed Miliband has been attending Cops for well over a decade now, including as Gordon Brown’s climate change minister at Copenhagen in 2009. He is pretty damning about the decision by the UK climate change minister, Graham Stuart, to potter off home before the talks have come to any kind of conclusion.
“Graham Stuart flying home in the middle of critical negotiations tells you everything you need to know about this Conservative government,” he said. “They are weak, divided and chaotic and can’t stand up and fight for lower energy bills for the British people, can’t stand up and fight for investment into our country, and they can’t stand up and fight to provide climate leadership.
“The sad truth is that, thanks to Rishi Sunak tanking Britain’s reputation on the world stage, many countries simply won’t even notice that his minister has disappeared.”
Updated
Hallo, this is Bibi van der Zee taking over the blog from my colleague Ajit. We’re still waiting for the latest iteration of the text to appear, and meanwhile there is increasing worry about how on earth all the outstanding issues are going to be resolved. We’ll be bringing you all the developments as they unfold; email me with comments and suggestions on bibi.vanderzee@theguardian.com…
Anger, frustration and impatience as climate summit enters final stage
Thanks for following the liveblog today, I’m passing it over to my colleague Bibi – you can get in touch with her at bibi.vanderzee@theguardian.com with your thoughts, tips and questions. Here are the big events from this morning:
More countries expressed anger at the draft text for its lack of ambition.
The UK’s climate minister left the climate conference.
Campaigners warned that the historic loss and damage agreement from the first day of the summit is still lacking.
Indigenous and global south activists called out rich country ‘hypocrisy’ in pushing to phase out fossil fuels globally while increasing production at home.
Our tireless reporters on the ground are eagerly awaiting the next version of the text to drop.
Updated
Fury as UK climate change minister leaves conference
Climate campaigners and politicians have reacted with fury to the news that the UK climate change minister, Graham Stuart, has returned to London from Cop28, my colleagues Fiona Harvey, Patrick Greenfield and Helena Horton tell me.
Rebecca Newsom, of Greenpeace, told the Guardian: “This is an outrageous dereliction of leadership at the most critical point during this conference. This is the moment when we need to see bold political commitments to unlock the gridlock on the text.
“Instead of fleeing Dubai, Stuart should be here to broker the compromises really needed to act upon developing countries’ urgent demands for more public finance to deliver a full fossil fuel phase-out. And he should be making clear that the UK, as a rich historically polluting country, is prepared to lead the way on delivering the renewable transition way from fossil fuels. The world is watching, and the Conservative government’s failure to lead at Cop28 is becoming increasingly obvious.”
Chris Skidmore, the Tory MP who wrote a review of the government’s net zero policies, said: “The decisions taken at this Cop are far more important and vital for the future of all nations than the outcome of a vote tonight that will have little or no impact in the long term. Politics is about priorities and our priorities should be demonstrating clear UK leadership on climate action, but you have to actually be in the room to lead.”
The Green MP Caroline Lucas said: “The government’s last shred of moral authority in tackling the climate emergency has been obliterated by this scandalous decision to leave Cop28 negotiations at the most critical moment. Adding insult to injury, if true that the minister is leaving the summit in order to vote in favour of the utterly immoral Rwanda deal, it shows that Rishi Sunak prioritises saving his own skin over saving the planet.”
Francesca Rhodes, of Care International UK, said: “If the reports are accurate, it is staggering that the UK government has no ministers attending the final critical days of Cop28. These negotiations will decide the fate of millions of people facing floods, fires and famine due to the climate crisis. The UK has played a productive role in the talks so far but leaving early is simply shameful. Time and again, wealthy countries have let down low-income countries. The latest text was deeply disappointing and does not keep 1.5C alive. When the UK should be standing up for marginalised communities, including women and girls, Rishi Sunak’s government has gone awol.”
Updated
UK minister departs Cop28 as climate talks reach crisis point
The UK’s climate change minister has left Dubai and returned to London, the Guardian has learned, leaving civil servants to finish the fraught negotiations in his absence.
Graham Stuart, the minister of state for climate change, left Dubai on Tuesday morning to return to his duties as an MP, the government confirmed, even as the climate talks reached crisis point.
A government spokesperson told the Guardian: “Minister Stuart has returned to the UK to attend parliament in his role as an MP. There will continue to be full official representation on the ground at the summit and Minister Stuart will continue to be the lead UK minister for negotiations with any final decisions agreed with him.”
The spokesperson would not confirm whether Stuart had returned in order to take part in the vote on Rishi Sunak’s controversial policy on Rwanda.
The departure by a head of delegation for a leading developed country was met with shock and disbelief from campaigners and other delegations at the talks. One told the Guardian the UK had already raised eyebrows at the talks with its seeming lack of commitment.
The fortnight-long talks have reached a crisis, after a draft deal by the host country, United Arab Emirates, was rejected by scores of developed and developing country governments, including the UK.
Although the text called for a reduction in the production and consumption of fossil fuels, it contained no obligation for countries to make such cuts, instead framing it as one of a list of options that countries “could” undertake.
“That one word ‘could’ just kills everything,” said Eamon Ryan, Ireland’s environment minister, adding that the EU could walk out of the talks if the text did not improve.
No end to negotiations is yet in sight, as countries are locked in disagreement over whether to phase out or phase down fossil fuels.
The UK strongly rejected the text that was tabled by the presidency on Monday evening in Dubai, with Stuart visiting the UAE presidency to demand a toughening up of the text.
The UK says it wants a full phase-out of fossil fuels to be agreed at these talks. However, critics have pointed out that the UK is also planning a new round of oil and gas licences in the North Sea.
Rishi Sunak attended the talks briefly in their opening days, but was criticised for staying for less time talking to other leaders than he spent on the private jet that carried him to and from the conference.
Claire Coutinho, the secretary of state for energy security and net zero, also attended for a few days at the beginning of the talks, but left before the crunch negotiations began, leaving Stuart in charge of the UK’s delegation.
Most other countries are represented at Cop28 by their equivalent of cabinet minister rank, so the UK was already unusual in having its delegation headed by a junior minister.
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Will the Cop28 talks break down if countries fail to come to an agreement? If so, it would be a first in the history of UN climate summits.
Michael Jacobs, a political economist at the University of Sheffield and longtime Cop observer, argues that this might even be the best result.
What would be the best result now at #COP28? The talks are deadlocked over whether they should call for an eventual end to the production and consumption of unabated fossil fuels. This is what the globally agreed goal of limiting warming to 1.5C requires. What are the options? /1
— Michael Jacobs (@michaelujacobs) December 12, 2023
“If the global stocktake text is lost it would be a shame, but it won’t mean any country will now not do something it would otherwise have done,” Jacobs said in a post on X. “Finance is not determined by this text. Nor are mitigation and adaptation plans in the next set of national commitments in 2025.”
He added: “So if nothing really significant would be lost by a breakdown of the Cop, would anything be gained? Yes. It would be a much bigger global media story than a fudge. Front-page news. The story: that climate change is now a battle between a fossil future and a non-fossil one.”
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While the global stocktake is the most important text that governments are dealing with at Cop28, several other issues are being dealt with. As Carbon Brief’s Simon Evans points out, we are in overtime at Cop28 and there is still a lot to do.
#COP28 update 1240 GST 12 December
— Simon Evans (@DrSimEvans) December 12, 2023
In case you were wondering, no, COP28 has not concluded at 1100, as the presidency insisted
Why not? Here's the latest list of topics that are agreed, not agreed and (in some cases) even lacking draft text
Details:https://t.co/NtOc6QPYfw pic.twitter.com/CojrzEUNq7
One of the issues being discussed is the complicated rules that underpin global carbon markets, which observers privately warn are descending into farce.
The supervisory body for the rules on carbon removals, which is made up of country negotiators, spent over a year drawing up the rules before the Cop28 summit. Now they are marking their own homework as negotiators with their respective countries, but they cannot agree on the rules that they wrote in the supervisory body. Frustrations are growing.
Gilles Dufrasne, a policy expert at Carbon Market Watch, said: “It’s good for negotiators to take a second look at their work. Some of what’s on the table is sufficient, but it’s important to also recognise what is not yet ready. There is certainly room for improvement in the recommendations that have been sent, and we hope countries will not blindly adopt rules that will not deliver the necessary level of integrity for the market.”
Andy Katz, of Sierra Club, said: “If they make up the rules as they go, we may never see accountability for reversals or social safeguards. More clarity is needed before the requirements for removal activities can be adopted.”
Injy Johnstone, of Oxford Net-Zero, said: “There is a significant gap between the carbon removal we need, and where we are now. Article 6 could play a role in scaling removal investment, but only if the sufficient guidance and guardrails are put in place.”
Updated
As climate talks reach a crisis point, the UK minister in charge of its delegation has left the conference. Full story coming soon…
Graham Stuart UK minister has left #Cop28 the Guardian has learned. Full story to follow shortly
— Fiona Harvey (@fionaharvey) December 12, 2023
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For all the flaws of UN climate summits, they are one of the few spaces in which voices from the small island states on the frontlines of climate change are heard. A new Guardian series explores a painful contradiction that many of them must navigate: their economies depend on tourists who wreck the environment but their existence is imperilled by sea levels that are rising fast as a result of carbon pollution.
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There is rarely good news on the climate crisis, but Colombia was lauded on Monday evening by NGOs for its leadership at Cop28, not least by becoming the biggest fossil fuel producer to date to renounce drilling and join the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance.
“Colombia has been a consistent shining light,” said the Climate Action Network (CAN). “They truly were the clear eyes and big hearts on the fossil fuel phase-out. President Gustavo Petro’s speech choosing life and endorsing the fossil fuel treaty was complemented by environment minister Susanna Muhamad’s ongoing interventions, driving the conversations the world desperately needs at this critical time towards the end of the fossil fuel age.”
Alejandro Alemán, the coordinator of Climate Action Network Latin America, said: “The Ray of the Year award is a recognition of Colombia’s performance in favour of climate justice and the genuine interests of the people of Latin America, especially Indigenous peoples, Afro-descendants and local communities.
“In 15 years of monitoring the UN negotiations, I have rarely seen such forceful proposals in favour of respect for human rights, genuine protection of the environment – not greenwashing – and the protection of wellbeing for people. Colombia’s position in the UNFCCC is a watershed, since it breaks with a mindset and puts on the negotiating table the possibilities of creating a new development paradigm, rethinking the future based on a more just and sustainable society.”
CAN also awarded an award to the US. “Since the dawn of time the US has been opposing language on the differentiation of fossil fuels [ie naming oil and gas, not just coal] and has outrageously been pushing through language on fossil fuel emissions. Therefore, as the world’s largest historical emitter and oil producer, blocking negotiations in the final hours of Cop28, the award for the biggest and baddest fossil, The Colossal Fossil, goes to the US,” it said
The Fossil of the Day award went to Saudi Arabia for its “shameful resistance [to a fossil fuel phase-out], driven by profit rather than what’s best for people and planet”. The awards have been presented at the UN climate talks since 1999.
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Indigenous and Global South campaigners call out rich country 'hypocrisy'
Experts from global south and Indigenous communities have described the global stocktake and the state of the negotiations as a “dark day”, at this year’s last press briefing by the Global Campaign for Climate Justice.
“I come from the belly of the beast. Every year we are faced with major wildfires because the United States fails to reduce emissions at source, they fail to keep [fossil fuels] in the ground when the science is clear,” said Thomas Joseph, from a village in the Six Rivers national forest of northern California, which has been heavily affected by the fossil fuel industry. “We have lost control of our government because of the influence of the fossil fuel industry. And that’s what’s going on here today with Cop28 … there is no clear pathway forward that’s going to reduce emissions at source and keep us below 1.5C and we continue to implement false solutions, dangerous distractions that put our communities, primarily Indigenous people, at risk.”
Meena Raman, a climate policy expert at her 16th Cop with the Third World Network, said: “The global stocktake has been full of dishonesty and hypocrisy from the global north, especially the US and ‘umbrella’ group of countries, who are suddenly claiming to be climate champions talking about the 1.5C north star while refusing to talk about their historical emissions and historical responsibility. This is a super red line for the United States. They don’t want to talk about equity and insist that the text refers to all parties without any differentiation.
“For people like me who have been following these Cops, their words really ring hollow … because they are setting up the developing countries for failure so they can blame [them] and show themselves as climate champions even as they are expanding fossil fuel production and consumption … this is hypocrisy, it’s climate colonialism, and climate injustice.”
Lidy Nacpil, the director of the Asian Peoples’ Movement on Debt and Development, said: “So much of the global south already has extreme energy poverty and the situation will get worse if we’re talking about fossil fuels without talking about finance. It makes us sick when we hear them, because it is so hypocritical that they’re actually expanding their fossil fuel production and consumption and it’s so shameless. That they’re calling for ambition without talking about the delivery of their obligations to provide their fair share of the finance, which is their obligation. We’re not asking for help.”
She added: “They are throwing us some peanuts in the just transition package but without discussion of climate finance this is just going to be all rhetoric. The only climate finance ‘flowing’ is mostly in the form of loans which is going to end up just impoverishing us in the south even more. For us this is a dark day.”
Updated
Money has been at the heart of Cop28, both in the negotiations and the announcements that governments and businesses have made on the sidelines. As the summit enters its final hours, here are some key financial takeaways from analysts and campaigners.
“This Cop has set several finance records,” said Joe Thwaites, of the Natural Resources Defense Council. “New pledges to the Green Climate Fund have taken its replenishment to $12.8bn. The newly minted fund to address loss and damages has raised $655.9m, the fastest a UN climate fund has ever been capitalised. But there are concerns that adaptation finance is being ignored and overall commitments at Cop have been disappointing. Rich countries must step up and contribute more if they want to dispel the notion that climate finance commitments are merely moving existing pots of money around.”
Emily Wilkinson, of the thinktank ODI, said: “On the one hand, it’s good the loss and damage fund got off the ground at Cop28, given the opposition from some nations to the idea of compensating countries for historic emissions. However, we need the fund to go further, faster. In the last 22 years extreme weather events have cost small island states alone $105bn, of which $38.4bn can be attributed to climate change. By comparison, there is now around $700m pledged to the fund – just a small fraction of the losses developing countries face as a result of climate change every year – even as anticipated costs are ramping up.”
Fadhel Kaboub, of Power Shift Africa, said: “Climate finance is actually a debt owed by the historic polluters of the global north to countries on the frontlines of climate change. The global north is in default and is refusing to pay its debt. At the end of Cop28 we are nowhere near reaching the trillions global south countries need in transformative grant-based investment and transfer of technology for climate by 2030.”
Sandra Guzman, of the Climate Finance Group for Latin America and the Caribbean (GFLAC), said: “The pledges made at Cop28 for the loss and damage Fund, the Green Climate Fund and other commitments are a positive signal, but this signal won’t be transformative if there is not a predictable plan to transfer them, in an adequate, transparent and equitable way, avoiding debt and making them accessible for the most vulnerable countries.”
The Kenyan climate activist and podcast host Abigael Kima said: “We are on the frontlines of the climate emergency. As the negotiations wrap up here in Dubai, our crops are failing, flash flooding is devastating communities, and conflicts are raging with climate change as an underlying cause. We need world leaders to make strong finance commitments now to help developing countries adapt and transform their economies and societies for a warming future.”
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With little sign of agreement on the final scheduled day of Cop28, the pressure is intense on the Cop president, Sultan Al Jaber, to bring the 198 countries to an ambitious final deal. One of the few people who has been in the same position is Alok Sharma, who was president of Cop26 in Glasgow, and he spoke to BBC Radio 4 today. He said he would still be trying to get the phrase “phase-out of fossil fuel” back into the final text, after it was removed in the draft released on Monday. (There’s more on why “phase-out” matters so much here).
“There is still an opportunity to get a historic outcome, the presidency and other countries should not give up. We are literally fighting for the future of our children’s lives,” Sharma said.
“The science tells us we need strong and clear language on fossil fuel phase out. At Cop26, we had a great deal to deal with in the final few hours, but still managed to broker a deal at the last minute. We managed for the first time to get language on fossil fuels, on the phase down of coal.
“The UAE itself has faced questions going into the Cop [over its own oil and gas expansion plans and more] but actually they had a good first week. But, let’s not kid ourselves that there hasn’t been a big pushback from some vested interests against a fossil fuel phase-out – we saw that in the letter from Opec. This is the point of the negotiations where the rubber absolutely hits the road and is an opportunity for the presidency to bring countries together and broker an ambitious outcome.
“I would say to all the countries who are opposing [a phase-out]: please think about what is at stake. 2023 was the hottest year on record and we’re seeing more frequent and ferocious climate events around the world. Genuinely I believe that we’re in the last-chance saloon to save our children’s futures.
“These countries need to remind themselves that climate change does not recognise borders. What happens in one country happens ultimately everywhere else, including in the fossil fuel-producing countries.”
Updated
Zambia’s environment minister, Collins Nzovu, speaking on behalf of the African group at Cop28, has called for more fairness in cutting emissions. “Africa is in support of limiting warming to 1.5C. However, this should be based on differentiated pathways where African countries close the supply gap, rather than developed countries continuing to issue exploration licenses.”
He said an outcome on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) was the group’s key demand. “We will not agree on anything here unless Africa’s top priorities are met, which to us is a GGA framework. If we are serious about saving lives, livelihoods and protecting ecosystems then the GGA framework must have ambitious, time-bound targets with clear means of support for implementation.”
Nzovu added that the agreement should recognise “the full right” for Africa to exploit its natural resources sustainably. “Africa’s cumulative historical emissions are a paltry 3% of the global total; current emissions from [its] energy and industrialised sector are also an inconsequential 3% for a continent of over 50 countries and 1.5 billion people.”
Updated
While Cop28 waits for new text, the summit director general, Majid Al Suwaidi, has given a press conference to defend the United Arab Emirates’ presidency.
His argument in short: this is the way things were always expected to go, and it’s now up to the nearly 200 countries at the summit to come up with an ambitious agreement, not us.
“We’re facing the most demanding Cop agenda of all time, and what we are seeing right now is everybody working through that agenda. All Cops are challenging, but in this Cop we’re trying to do something that has never been done before. Something historic. We are trying to agree on a comprehensive plan to close the gaps between where the world is and where it needs to be to keep 1.5 degrees within reach.”
Al Suwaidi conceded many issues remained open and that “lots of parties” felt the text “didn’t fully address their concerns”.
“We expected that. In fact, we wanted the text to spark conversations. And that’s what’s happened. What we have seen since is that the parties have deeply held and deeply split views, especially on the language around fossil fuels. It’s important to be clear on something: the text we released was the starting point for discussions. Again, this is entirely normal for a consensus-based process.
“When we released it, we knew opinions were polarised. But what we didn’t know was where each country’s red lines were. By releasing our first draft of the text, we got parties to come to us quickly with those red lines. We spent last night talking, taking in that feedback. And that has put us in a position to draft a new text. The text includes all the elements we need for a comprehensive plan to 2030 … but this is a process of the parties … and while the presidency can guide, direct and encourage, the level of ambition is for the parties to agree.”
Updated
The question of fairness is at the heart of the impasse at Cop28, said Mohamed Adow, of the climate thinktank Power Shift Africa. “It’s not fair that Congo & Canada must phase out fossil fuels at the same rate. If we want agreement here we should agree to this,” he posted on X.
Adow said rich historic polluters should go first, then middle-income nations such as those in the Gulf, followed by poorer countries. “Developed countries want to treat all countries as if they are the same, failing to acknowledge historic responsibility & different capacities as well as the need for proper funding & technology transfer needed to facilitate the transition.”
It’s only right that rich historic polluters like the US, UK & Norway go first, then middle income nations like those in the Gulf with poorer developing countries after that. It’s not fair that Congo & Canada must phase out fossil fuels at the same rate. If we want agreement here…
— Mohamed Adow (@mohadow) December 12, 2023
He criticised parts of the text and praised others. “We’re on the cusp of a historic outcome in Dubai. But only if we see the potential oasis from the Dubai desert.”
Updated
Governments must start to distinguish between the good subsidies they need to fight the climate crisis and the bad ones that are increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the director general of the World Trade Organization has said.
Subsidies and other incentives to burn fossil fuels and encourage poor agricultural practices, amounting to about $1.7tn a year, are distorting world trade and hampering the fight against climate breakdown, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told the Guardian.
“Can you imagine if we said we are going to repurpose those subsidies into other friendly subsidies, like for research and innovation?” she said. “I don’t mind that kind of subsidy.”
She gave the example of clean cooking stoves in the developing world. Instead of subsidising fossil fuels, governments could subsidise clean stoves that use solar power or electricity instead of burning wood. “These kinds of subsidies, no one would be against,” she said.
Developed countries devote more money to fossil fuel subsidies than the poor world, so if they reduced those emissions-increasing subsidies, they could free up cash for the poor world, to pay into climate finance such as the loss and damage fund for poor and vulnerable countries, she said.
She also urged countries to bring their trade policy in line with the goal of limiting global temperature rises to 1.5C (2.7F) above pre-industrial levels. “Countries need to review the import tariff regimes to make sure they’re not charging less for polluting items and charging more for the green items,” she said. “At the WTO, we’ve noticed that import tariffs in many countries on renewables are on average higher than tariffs for fossil fuel goods.”
For instance, she said, in many countries the tariffs on imports of secondhand petrol or diesel cars are lower than those on hybrid or electric vehicles. “So you’re disincentivising the very thing that will help you get to net zero,” she said.
“Trade is an important and positive force the for the net zero transition,” she said. “But it’s not being paid attention to as a positive force.”
Read the full story:
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UK: Cop28 draft 'disappointing and does not go far enough'
The UK has added its voice to those of countries criticising the draft text released yesterday. A government spokesperson said: “This draft is disappointing and does not go far enough. The UK position is clear – there must be a phase-out of unabated fossil fuels to meet our climate goals.”
The UK, the fourth biggest historical carbon polluter, is among several rich countries continuing to build infrastructure to dig up more oil and gas while it pushes for a phase-out of fossil fuels at climate summits. The International Energy Agency warned in 2021 that there should be no new oil and gas fields in its roadmap to reaching net zero emissions by 2050 – a key target to prevent the planet from heating by 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures by the end of the century.
The spokesperson said: “The UK is working with all parties and will continue to push for an ambitious outcome at Cop28 that keeps 1.5C in reach.”
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Why are delegates angry at the Cop28 draft agreement text?
Tuesday morning at Cop28 and we’re back in a waiting game. Heads of delegation met until the early hours, mostly expressing their deep unhappiness with the draft text produced by the summit presidency late Monday afternoon.
The scheduled end of the two-week conference has come and gone – that was 11am local – and as yet there is no new text to replace the document from yesterday. Anybody who says they know when this will end is guessing.
The text released by the Cop president, Sultan Al Jaber, drew ire from multiple directions. Much of the focus has been on paragraph 39, which covers energy and the future of fossil fuels. The good: it references the need to reduce their consumption and production. The bad: what sits around that.
The section is basically a dot-point list of things countries “could” do. Proposed language to phase fossil fuels out or down – the argument at the heart of so much of the talks – is gone even as an option.
There is instead a repeat of previous year’s wording to rapidly phase down “unabated” coal – a word choice that leaves open the option of continuing with “abated” coal. Abatement is referenced frequently, but not defined. Oil and gas are not explicitly mentioned at all.
Many countries speaking at a session overnight argued the section lacks the urgency and ambition needed to deliver on what the president has called his “north star” – keeping 1.5C of heating within reach. For example, the mention of the consumption and production of fossil fuels says they could be reduced “in a just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by, before, or around 2050 in keeping with the science”. This suggests that fossil fuels could still be being used after 2050 and justified by an unlimited amount of problematic offsets – which definitely isn’t what the science demands.
The section also leans on the inclusion of “carbon capture, utilisation and storage” – an underperforming technology that has failed to deliver on a commercial scale despite receiving billions in support. The celebrated goal of tripling global renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency is included, but there is no reference to the financial support needed to help developing countries get there.
And this is just the paragraph of the text that has received the most attention. Climate adaptation is the other major challenge – there is still no clear view on how it will be financed.
There are also a range of technical issues that remain unresolved, notably a fraught debate over the regulation of carbon markets, where the US has been accused of trying to force through an agreement with weak rules and lacking in transparency.
To state the obvious: there is a long way to go as we drift into overtime.
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The Ugandan activist Vanessa Nakate has said the climate crisis is not some vague, distant threat but something that is already killing people and taking away hope from communities.
“A lot has been said about the text,” she said. “What I will say is that what is happening here is unacceptable. What is happening is unjust. What is happening is unfair, especially for the communities on the front line. If we do not address the root cause of the climate crisis, everything else is pointless.”
Updated
While many countries are speaking out about yesterday’s draft text, some are saying silent. Saudi Arabia is among those who have not commented publicly so far. The Guardian visited the kingdom’s offices on Tuesday morning, which are spread across two buildings at Cop28.
Nobody was available to speak to the media and it is understood that the Saudi delegation was up late, like many others. We will keep trying to get their reaction today.
Nobody from the Saudi delegation was around to speak to media this morning at #COP28 pic.twitter.com/9r3PlqMPNB
— Patrick Greenfield (@pgreenfielduk) December 12, 2023
India, too, seems not yet to have commented.
Late one last night for Indian delegation at #cop28
— Adam Vaughan (@adamvaughan_uk) December 12, 2023
They were still at the conference centre at 4am
No public yet comment on draft deal (AFAIK) pic.twitter.com/UDtr9kVFCB
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Campaigners warn historic loss and damage agreement still lacking
Once upon a time, 12 long days ago, we were celebrating the establishment of the loss and damage fund – a historic agreement that has so far generated almost $800m in pledges. But experts warned that the job was far from done, and that key issues needed to be addressed in the global stocktake to facilitate the fund’s future success. Alas, the draft text failed to deliver on a number of fronts, according to loss and damage followers, including:
Scale: there is no mention of how much money is required to cover the costs of irreversible loss and damage, which already stand at about $400bn a year – developing countries pushed for a floor of $100bn a year but didn’t even get that.
Siloed: Loss and damage is missing from the preamble, finance, cross-cutting and way forward sections; the specific agenda item is also gone. Instead, loss and damage is relegated to its own silo or section, with no recognition of the links between mitigation, adaptation, finance more broadly and loss and damage.
Responsibility: Developed countries should be funding loss and damage but the language is wishy-washy and only “urges” them to provide support
Missing data: A loss and damage gap report is vital so that there is broad and agreed understanding of what funding is required – but that’s been watered down to a synthesis report based on national assessments.
Julie-Anne Richards, of the Loss and Damage Collaboration, said: “The presidency and developed countries clearly think they have ticked the loss and damage box at this Cop … but initial pledges are very, very low compared to need, with no clear way forward. It is vital to ensure that loss and damage is well reflected in the final global stocktake … to provide an assessment of how loss and damage is impacting communities and countries on the frontline, reflect the scale of needs and set a clear expectation that the fund will be capitalised and replenished to meet this need.”
Yamide Dagnet, director of climate justice at Open Society Foundation, said: “Loss and damage should be in the GST preamble, and linked to 1.5C, adaptation, and finance, but this interconnectedness is currently missing. Developing countries pushed for a floor but developed countries didn’t want it, and there is no reference to scale which is worrying. Access for frontline communities and countries is very important and should also be clearer.”
Updated
Climate campaigners are among the first to speak at Cop28 this morning. Outside the plenary where talks are being held, they have been carrying signs telling governments to “hold the line”.
I found this silent protest outside the main negotiating hall at #Cop28 incredibly moving pic.twitter.com/xtZEBh3hmt
— Fiona Harvey (@fionaharvey) December 11, 2023
Harjeet Singh, Climate Action Network International’s (CAN) head of global political strategy, has been giving his thoughts already this morning.
COP28: At a Crossroads!
— Harjeet Singh (@harjeet11) December 12, 2023
On this final official day of COP28, we stand at a crossroads in our fight against climate change. The decisions made by leaders in the next few hours will shape our future.
🧵 1/10#COP28 pic.twitter.com/taR4b2DExW
Romain Ioualalen, Oil Change International policy campaigner, a must follow on Twitter, said:
“The draft that we saw does not reflect science, it does not reflect the demands from the climate movement for a fully funded phase-out of fossil fuels, it doesn’t even reflect the vast majority of parties in this process. The success of this Cop will be judged on the fully funded phase-out of fossil fuels. That’s the test if we want to maintain a chance of limiting global heating to 1.5C.”
Rachel Cleetus, the lead economist for the Union of Concerned Scientists, said to applause: “The good news is that we all agree this text is shit.”
She added: “We’ve got to fix it. We know what the science says. The era of fossil fuels has to end, starting now. That’s the good news. The bad news is that we are running out of time at this Cop. It’s worth going into overtime to get this done. It’s really critical that we secure a fast, fair, funded phase-out of fossil fuels. You have to have words that live up to the science.”
Joseph Sikulu, of Pacific Climate Warriors, broke down in tears as he spoke. “We saw the disappointment that came out last night. The minister from the Marshall Islands said it best: we didn’t come here to sign our death sentence. In its current state, it does just that.
“The system is broken but we continue to come because there is no other process to us that allows us to fight for our futures. At Paris, we fought for our lives for 1.5C, only to slowly see it falling from our grasp.”
Updated
It is sometimes easy to forget that the words over which delegates are fighting lead to real-life damages. Dr Jeni Miller, the executive director of the Global Climate and Health Alliance, said the most recent draft of the Cop28 text would be “disastrous for people’s health” and represents a major step backwards at a time when we urgently need to be accelerating action.
“Small islands states have rightly called this text a death sentence,” she said. “The lack of any actual commitment to phase out fossil fuels leaves us on a trajectory to spiralling climate impacts on health that will exceed the limits of our health systems’ and communities’ abilities to adapt. And it will continue to expose people all over the world to the myriad health impacts of fossil fuels even beyond their role in climate change, such as the over 5 million deaths per year from air pollution alone.”
Updated
Some countries were slower than others to give their reaction to the draft text last night. Pacific Island states were quick to voice their opposition while others waited for a few hours. Late in the evening, Brazil and Canada joined those giving it a thumbs down.
Marina Silva, Brazil’s environment minister, told the media that the language on fossil fuels was not sufficient, but said they were happy with the wording on forests.
“For us, it is completely unsatisfactory with regard to the issue of fossil fuels. The language is not appropriate. There are many things that are insufficient. One of these is the lack of effort towards phasing out, elimination. Not just reducing emissions. We need better clarity with regard to this balance between developed and developed countries. There is a lack of clarity … We need a path so our economies are no longer reliant on fossil fuels,” she said.
“We have a text that says it has the ambition to align with 1.5C but we don’t have the clarity and the equivalence with regard to the issue of energy. It is important that both things are adequately aligned. We will work within the limits and deadlines that are not easy. Our chief negotiator is here ready to have a lot of coffee so we can advance in talks,” said Silva.
Canada’s environment minister, Steven Guilbeault, also said it was not enough. Yesterday, they released a joint declaration with the US on climate change.
Canada is looking for an agreement that is aligned with global realities and science, keeping 1.5° in reach.
— Steven Guilbeault (@s_guilbeault) December 11, 2023
This draft text does not yet reflect the ambition I have heard from countries.
(1/2) #COP28
However, it does show positive signs of progress on nature protection and recovery, as agreed to at COP15.
— Steven Guilbeault (@s_guilbeault) December 11, 2023
I will work tirelessly with partners to find solutions and advocate for stronger language to respond to the global threat of climate change.
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Exhausted delegates get ready as negotiations overrun
Officially, Cop28 wraps up at 11am local time, which is in half an hour. There is no chance of that happening. Expo City is a ghost town this morning. The long queues, packed metro carriages and lengthy security checks are over.
The venue will soon start closing up after hosting the largest climate summit in history. A few people are wandering around the site in the morning haze, but most delegates are likely still in bed, exhausted after negotiations went on into the early hours.
Very quiet at #Cop28 this morning. Today is meant to be the last day, but nobody thinks that will be the case. pic.twitter.com/P6RA0WsF74
— Patrick Greenfield (@pgreenfielduk) December 12, 2023
What should we expect today?
Once ministers and their teams are out of bed, attention will turn to another draft of the text that the UAE presidency is preparing right now, although we might be waiting until the afternoon for it. Once published, we will see the same burst of reaction from delegates to the draft, and negotiations are likely to become increasingly fraught.
Yesterday saw strong opposition from the Pacific states, the EU and many others over the failure of the text to include language on phasing out of fossil fuels, something that is crucial for keeping 1.5C alive.
Cedric Schuster, of Samoa, chair of the Alliance of Small Island States, said: “We will not sign our death certificate. We cannot sign on to text that does not have strong commitments on phasing out fossil fuels.”
There are fears that countries like Saudi Arabia and other petrostates could seek to weaken the language further on fossil fuels.
If you want to catch up on where we are, yesterday’s wrap with my colleagues Fiona Harvey, Nina Lakhani, Adam Morton and Damian Carrington is a good place to start.
Updated
So what happened yesterday? A quick summary:
The new draft text released by Cop28 presidency omits reference to a “phase-out” of fossil fuels.
Small island states have complained their voices are not being heard.
Most civil society groups have condemned the text as inadequate.
Azerbaijan and Brazil have formally been approved as hosts of Cop29 and Cop30.
Saudi Arabia has been accused of holding the talks hostage.
The UN secretary general has urged delegates to ”end the fossil fuel age”.
One of the attenders got on stage during one event with a sign to protest against fossil fuels.
Updated
Good morning! This is Ajit Niranjan, on the eleventh day (if we don’t count Thursday’s rest day) of the 28th Conference of the Parties climate change summit, or Cop28.
The Guardian will be liveblogging the negotiations throughout, as always, and we look forward to your contributions: please email me on ajit.niranjan@theguardian.com with thoughts and suggestions. Bibi van der Zee (bibi.vanderzee@theguardian.com) will be taking over later on.
Yesterday involved a lot of waiting around, but the draft text finally landed in the afternoon and there has been heated debate and reaction to it.
Today will be the last day – in theory. In reality, most Cops overrun and it will be no surprise if this one does too. Stay with us for all the updates.
