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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Environment
Jonathan Watts and Alan Evans

Cop28: UAE climate chief’s comments ‘incredibly concerning’ – as it happened

CoP28 (Organization) United States United Nations
Sultan Al Jaber is president of the Cop28 climate talks, and also head of the UAE’s national oil company, Adnoc.
Sultan Al Jaber is president of the Cop28 climate talks, and also head of the UAE’s national oil company, Adnoc. Photograph: Martin Divíšek/EPA

Closing summary

A run-down of today’s news, which was dominated by the Cop28 president, Sultan Al Jaber, for all the wrong reasons:

That’s it from me until next time. Thanks for reading.

Updated

When is a ‘protected area’ not a protected area?

When is a ‘protected area’ not a protected area? When there is oil involved.

A new study maps fossil fuel threats to biodiversity hotspots that are nominally classified as protected areas. Released today at Cop28, it shows:

  • Globally, at least 918 protected areas have ongoing or planned fossil fuel extraction projects within their boundaries, with a total of 2,337 active or proposed oil, gas, and coal extraction ventures within legally protected areas.

  • At least 50.8 Gt of potential CO2 emissions from oil, gas, and coal reserves are on track to be extracted from projects within protected areas over their lifetimes, according to industry projections. This is more than three times the annual emissions from the US and China combined.

  • In the three largest pantropical forest basins, 300,000km2 or 14% of the area of PAs, overlap with oil and gas blocks.

Excess natural gas of state-owned Petroecuador is flared as Ecuador is preparing to shut down oil production in the Yasuni Amazon reserve, in Via Auca, Orellana province, Ecuador.
Excess natural gas of state-owned Petroecuador is flared as Ecuador is preparing to shut down oil production in the Yasuni Amazon reserve, in Via Auca, Orellana province, Ecuador. Photograph: Karen Toro/Reuters

The full report, which was produced by Earth Insight, the Leave it in the Ground Initiative and the IUCN World Commission on Protected Areas, can be found here.

Updated

Reaction to UAE climate chief's comments

‘When you put Count Dracula in charge at the Blood Bank’ … Reaction continues to flood in about the UAE climate chief’s comments, and none of it could be called flattering.

Updated

When is 1.5°C not 1.5°C?

There is apparently no formally agreed definition of long-term global heating, which means there are different interpretations of when the world will break the 1.5C target of the Paris climate agreement.

In the short-term that temperature rise could be reached very soon. Some suggest it could happen in the next few years, possibly even this year. But climate trends are determined over decades, not years so how to calculate when Paris is breached?

One proposal, put forward by Richard Betts of the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre is to combine the last ten years of global temperature observations with an estimate of the projection or forecast for the next ten years. He says: “If adopted this could mean a universally agreed measure of global warming that could trigger immediate action to avoid further rises.”

Regardless of this nerdy but important debate, the trend is extremely clear and extremely worrying:

Every tonne of fossil fuels that is burned puts more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

Every year that CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise means global higher temperatures.

Every fraction of a degree of heating means immense suffering and huge losses.

Updated

A reminder of what is at stake in this excellent summary of the State of the Global Climate 2023 report by the World Meteorological Organisation. They observe record greenhouse gases, record heat and devastating natural disasters, including:

  • Storm Daniel, which flooded many parts of the Mediterranean and then destroyed dams in Dema, Libya, killing at least 4,300 people.

  • Wildfires in Canada that scorched a record area that was six times bigger than the 10-year average.

  • The deadliest US wildfire in more than 100 years, which killed 99 in Hawaii.

    Detailed thread in the following X post.

This is a provisional report, as the year has not yet ended, but November also brought record heat so the trends seem very strong.

Updated

Fossil fuel phaseout is ‘required’ to reach Paris targets – report

Leading climate scientists at Cop28 have emphasised that a fossil fuel phaseout is required to keep global heating below the Paris agreement’s temperature targets.

Prof Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research in Germany, said: “I cannot see scientifically there being any other communication than that we need to phase out fossil fuels.”

The scientists’ report was launched in Dubai shortly after the Guardian revealed that the Cop28 president had said shortly before the summit that there was “no science” saying that the phase-out of fossil fuels was needed to keep below 1.5C. Sultan Al Jaber is also CEO of the UAE’s state oil company.

The issue of whether the 198 nations at Cop28 should decide on a phase-out or phase-down of fossil fuels is one of the most fiercely fought issues at the summit and may be the main determinant of its success.

The new report states: “A rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out is required to stay within the Paris agreement target range.” It said Cop28 should “take unambiguous steps towards clear commitments for a managed phase-out of all fossil fuels”.

Rockström said: “Science is clear. Cop28 must be the global meeting when the world gets serious about phasing out fossil-fuels. So far, we have failed, taking us on a dangerous path towards losing sight of the Paris agreement target: the 1.5C biophysical limit.”

Dr Ploy Achakulwisut at the Stockholm Environment Institute, who is a member of the UN secretary general’s climate action team, said: “The science demands that it should not be controversial to pledge to phase out all fossil fuels. That is what we need to keep 1.5C alive.

“And if some qualifying term, like ‘unabated’ is used, it needs to be clearly well defined, with science based thresholds. High-income countries must lead this transition [to renewable energy] and provide support for countries with lower capacities.”

The report was supported by Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UNFCCC, the treaty under which the Cop meetings are held. He said in a press release: “The ‘Ten new insights in climate science’ report provides an essential tool for decision-makers at a critical time in the climate calendar each year. Scientific findings from reports like these should inform the ambitious and evidence-based action plans needed in this critical decade of accelerated climate action.”

The report was produced by leading climate scientists for Future Earth, the Earth League and the World Climate Research Programme.

Updated

I suspect Sultan Al Jaber may be regretting his candour almost as much as the United Nations will be regretting the decision to put the chief of an oil company in charge of a climate conference.

Was this a terrible mistake or a cunning ruse to allow the true colours of the fossil fuel industry to shine through the petrochemical haze of Dubai?

Sultan Al Jaber listens to a national statement at the World Climate Action Summit.
Sultan Al Jaber listens to a national statement at the World Climate Action Summit. Photograph: Thaier Al-Sudani/Reuters

Updated

The cacophany grows louder.

Scientists are weighing in now, as well as campaigners and human rights experts:

Dr Marina Romanello, executive director of Lancet Countdown said: “In the light of [Al Jaber’s comments], health day seems like complete hypocrisy. It’s an enormous betrayal to invite the health community at the table but ignore all the warnings and science that point to how disastrous the impacts of fossil fuels are on our health and future. An outcome that doesn’t address the phase out of fossil fuels, would be a failed outcome.”

Dr Kate Dooley, at the University of Melbourne, said: “You can’t expect forests and nature to remove carbon and solve the climate crisis on one hand, and then suggest fossil fuels don’t need to be phased out. The very future existence of forests depends upon us ending continued emissions. Without that step, we’ll have no forests to turn to.”

And this from the UN special rapporteur on human rights and the environment, a UBC professor and environmental optimist:

Updated

Scientist: Cop28 President needs to read climate science reports

Still more condemnation of Al Jaber’s comments. This time by the scientist who has helped lead several of the United Nations global studies into the impacts of global heating and how to prevent them from getting steadily more awful beyond 1.5°C. Joeri Rogelj, Professor of Climate Science and Policy at Imperial College London, said:

“The COP President believes there is no science showing that fossil fuels must be phased-out to meet 1.5°C. I strongly recommend him asking around for the latest IPCC report. That report, approved unanimously by 195 countries including the UAE, shows a variety of ways to limit warming to 1.5°C - all of which indicate a de facto phase out of fossil fuels in the first half of the century.

“Will that take the world back to the caves? Absolutely not, except to cool off during the next excruciating heatwave maybe. Research published just a week ago shows that ending extreme poverty has a negligible impact on global emissions. Less than 5% of today’s emissions until 2050 and potentially as little as half a percent.”

Updated

Cop28 president ‘divorced from reality’

My colleague Helena Horton sends in more furious reaction about Sultan Al Jaber’s claim that that there is no scientific evidence that a phase-out of fossil fuels is needed to restrict global heating to 1.5C.

Teresa Anderson, ActionAid International’s Global Climate Justice Lead said,

“Sultan Jaber’s comments are completely divorced from the reality of hundreds of millions of people on the frontline of climate catastrophe. Communities whose lives are already being destroyed by floods, droughts, and cyclones have a different view on whether a fossil-fuelled future represents progress or poverty. With climate disasters worsening with each year, his comments fly in the face of all science and offer up another lifeline for climate-wrecking fossil fuel industries. We urge him to show leadership and commit to a phase-out agenda - not one that will wreak further harm and plunge the planet further on the brink of climate meltdown.”

200,000 cases of diarrheal diseases during drought in Amazonas

With health as today’s theme for the UN climate summit, a reminder from Brazil of the devastating impacts of the water shortages that have plagued the Amazon rainforest and its residents. Globo reports there have been more than 200,000 cases of diarrheal disease during the drought because low river levels lead to lower quality water. (Story in Portuguese)

Dead fish gazes towards the viewer on a dried-up river bed in Amazonas
Dead fish in a dried-up river bed in Amazonas. Photograph: Raphael Alves/EPA

Updated

‘I have never seen so many people weep’

Gina Marcela Cortes Valderrama reacts as names of victims of the Israel-Hamas war are read during a protest at the COP28 U.N. Climate Summit.
Gina Marcela Cortes Valderrama reacts as names of the victims of the Israel-Hamas war are read out during a protest at the COP28 U.N. Climate Summit, Sunday, Dec. 3, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Photograph: Peter Dejong/AP

There is no climate justice without human rights. That was the clear message from climate organizers who gathered this afternoon to demand an immediate ceasefire in Palestine. The protest took place under strict UNFCCC rules, amid warnings that any mention of specific countries or flags could lead to the Cop28 organizers revoking credentials and people being thrown out. “I don’t know what else to do, nothing can justify a genocide. There can be no climate justice without social justice,” said Monica Flores Hernandez, 33, from Climate Trace, a nonprofit in Puerto Rico.

The hour-long protest - by the far the largest of Cop28 so far - ended like it began, with organizers taking turns to read the names of just a few of the Palestinians killed by Israeli bombs since 7 October. I’ve covered many protests as a journalist over the past 16 years or so, but had never seen so many people - organizers, journalists, participants - weep. “These names were real people with aspirations. Please don’t forget them,” said Rania Harrara, a Unicef youth advocate and MENA feminist taskforce.

Carbon markets: Negotiators wrangle over role of forest conservation

Overnight, new negotiating texts on the rules for the Paris agreement’s carbon market appeared. With almost 80% of countries relying on carbon markets to meet their Paris obligations according to The International Emissions Trading Association (IETA), they will play an important role in ensuring the overall success of the agreement.

The new texts considers proposals for how forest conservation should be included in the rules for the carbon market or whether it should be excluded.

Once operational, large polluters such as the UK and Saudi Arabia will be able to purchase carbon credits from states with major carbon sinks such as Brazil and Indonesia to meet their own national targets.

Businesses are already buying up carbon rights in anticipation of a potential new industry, with one UAE firm signing agreements for areas of forest larger than the UK.

But carbon markets are among the most controversial and complicated parts of international climate politics. Some observers fear that weak rules on what counts as a carbon credit could mean countries end up trading hot air to meet their NDCs all while the planet continues to warm. Others worry that if the rules are too restrictive, climate finance will not flow.

A key question is what countries are allowed to trade. If a country decides not to extract oil, should it get carbon credits? If a state restores large areas of forest or electrifies another country’s transport network, how should that be counted? The list of potential problems is long and negotiators need to come up with an answer.

If you would like to read through some of the negotiating texts on carbon markets, Carbon Brief’s Dr Simon Evans has the latest and a useful tracker to follow their progress.

Updated

Campaigners outraged by UAE climate chief’s comments

My colleague Damian Carrington, who broke the story about Sultan Al Jaber’s dismissal of science behind the need to phase out fossil fuels, has sent in more reaction from climate campaigners.

Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa:

“The comments from Cop28 President show how entrenched he is in fossil fuel fantasy and is clearly determined that this Cop doesn’t do anything to harm the interests of the oil and gas industry. “These remarks are a wake up call to the world and negotiators at Cop28 that they are not going to get any help from the Cop Presidency in delivering a strong outcome on a fossil fuel phase out and will need to work hard to ensure a few petrostate leaders don’t imperil the planet in their efforts to protect their oil profits. “For the people in Africa, already dying because of climate change, a fossil fuel phase out date in the future is already too late. We need to ensure we have a date locked in here at COP28 so that at least the next generation has a chance to survive.”

X (formerly Twitter) is also buzzing with indignation.

Updated

‘The climate crisis is a health crisis’

On the first day ever dedicated to health at a climate summit, the World Health Organization is on a mission to make policymakers understand that “the climate crisis is a health crisis”.

Dr Maria Neira, the WHO’s top environmental health official, told me back in October that negotiators at Cop need to understand that our lives are at stake – and that doctors weren’t going to sugarcoat the message for them.

“No one will leave Cop this year saying: ‘Oh, I didn’t know health was affected,’” said Neira. “We will make sure that this will not be the case. Everyone needs to know this is not just about climate, polar bears and glaciers. This is about my lungs and your lungs.”

Burning fossil fuels kills millions of people each year just from the air pollution it causes. Add to that the effects of climate change, which range from hotter heatwaves and stronger coastal floods to crop failures and mental distress, and it’s enough for public health experts to ring alarm bells.

“We should create for every single mayor in the world, and every single prime minister, a health checklist where we make them accountable for all the decisions the ministers on their cabinet take in terms of health,” said Neira. “And we can do the same for negotiators at Cop.”

Updated

Climate scientist says Cop28 president should resign

Prof Michael Mann, a climate scientist, has called for the resignation of the Cop28 president, Sultan Al Jaber, over the latter’s claim that there is “no science” behind claims that fossil fuels need to be phased out to restrict global heating to 1.5C.

Other climate scientists are contradicting Al Jaber, who is – let’s never forget – also the head of an oil company.

Updated

A Lord of the Rings perspective on the climate crisis from my colleague Larry Elliott.

Despite the scientific evidence and all the warning signs from nature, greenhouse gas emissions have kept on rising and made it increasingly hard to prevent global temperatures from passing the point of no return. Seen from this perspective, the human race will be destroyed by greed and stupidity. The orcs win.

There is, though, a more upbeat way of looking at things. The past 30 years have increasingly seen the environment hard-wired into policymaking. Net zero targets, the commitments to phase out of fossil fuels, investment in renewables, electric cars, official measures of economic wellbeing that look beyond growth: all of these are signs of progress. The only intellectual developments of any real note in economics since the end of the cold war have been green ones: de-growth and the circular economy, for example.”

Read Larry’s full take on Tolkien, capitalism and industrialisation here.

Cop28 protesters call for ceasefire in Gaza

Hundreds of people mostly wearing white from a broad spectrum of climate justice organization have gathered to call for a ceasefire at a Palestinian solidarity event. Unfccc rules prohibit flags or any mention of countries. The event has started by two young organizers reading the names of some of the 15000 plus Palestinians killed by Israel since 7 October, weeping as they call out names of babies and children as well as the elderly. It’s a quiet but powerful event with poverty and finger clicking to express how people are feeling. “We come here as a movement to condemn the occupation, to condemn the apartheid, to condemn the silence of the world,” said  Colombian organizer. 
Protesters at Cop28 calling for a ceasefire in Gaza Photograph: Nina Lakhani/The Guardian

Hundreds of people mostly wearing white from a broad spectrum of climate justice organisation have gathered to call for a ceasefire at a Palestinian solidarity event. UNFCCC rules prohibit flags or any mention of countries. The event has started by two young organisers reading the names of some of the 15,000-plus Palestinians killed by Israel since 7 October, weeping as they call out names of babies and children as well as elderly people. It’s a quiet but powerful event with poetry and finger-clicking to express how people are feeling. “We come here as a movement to condemn the occupation, to condemn the apartheid, to condemn the silence of the world,” said the Colombian organiser Gina Cortés.

Asad Rehman, the founder and director of the UK-based Global Campaign for Climate Justice said: “Climate justice people from all over the world have mobilized because in the faces of Palestinians, black brown and indigenous people see their past present and future. We see the scars of colonization and sacrificed people and lands. The west says there is no money for climate finance but they have billions for bombs and bullets.”

Updated

This is Jonathan Watts now taking over from Alan Evans for the rest of the day. Feel free to send questions and comments to me at jon.watts@theguardian.com, or on X (formerly Twitter) at @jonathanwatts.

Updated

One of the most important ways for vulnerable countries to deal with extreme weather and natural disasters is with early warning systems that provide advance notice of floods, droughts, storms, heatwaves and other threats.

A new UN report released today finds that 101 countries now have some sort of early warning system in place, up six from last year and double the number in 2015.

At the report’s launch today, countries pledged extra funding to help expand early warning systems, including €8m from France, €6m from Denmark and €5m from Sweden.

But experts warn there is still a long way to go. Prof Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, said: “We are making progress but we need to do more. Many countries in Africa, the Pacific and South America still have significant gaps in attaining the minimum number of meteorological observations required to drive forecasting.

“Early warnings are the low-hanging fruit of climate adaptation. They are not a luxury but a must.”

Hillary Clinton is here in Dubai highlighting the disproportionate impact of the climate crisis upon women.

Clinton’s foundation, along with a myriad of partners, launched a $50m climate resilience fund in India earlier this year and she recounted the challenges faced by women working in increasingly unbearable heat.

Hilary Clinton meets another delegate at Cop28.
Hilary Clinton meets another delegate at Cop28. Photograph: Oliver Milman/The Guardian

“This issue of women and climate needs to be on every political agenda,” said the former US secretary of state and 2016 presidential candidate, speaking at an event organized by the Atlantic Council. She appeared alongside Reema Nanavaty, director of the Self-Employed Women’s Association, the largest women worker’s central trade union in India.

“Whatever the climate change impact is, whether it’s climate shocks, weather patterns, storms, heat, they are going to impact women and children more dramatically everywhere,” said the former US first lady and senator.

Clinton said it was worrying to see women’s rights go into reverse in several places around the world, citing Xi Jingping’s call for women in China to have more babies as an example. “We are seeing repeatedly that women’s lives and women’s work is an afterthought, if it’s a thought at all,” she said. “It just doesn’t rise to the level it needs to policymakers to pay attention and to act.”

“It’s not only that we need to do more for women’s voices to be heard, we also have to swim against a tide that has turned against women in many parts of the world.”

Former US secretary of state Hillary Clinton attends a session at Cop28.
Former US secretary of state Hillary Clinton attends a session at Cop28. Photograph: Ali Haider/EPA

Updated

Cop28 president claims 'no science' showing fossil fuel phaseout needed

Sultan Al Jaber, the UAE president of the Cop28 climate talks, told a meeting that there was no science showing a phase-out of fossil fuels was necessary to limit global heating to 1.5C (2.7F) above preindustrial levels.

The Guardian and the Centre for Climate Reporting revealed Al Jaber’s comments today.

In a recording of a session in which Al Jaber participated, he said phasing out fossil fuels would not allow sustainable development “unless you want to take the world back into caves”.

Al Jaber is also the head of Adnoc, the UAE’s national oil company, which many observers have described as an untenable conflict of interest.

Prof Sir David King, the chair of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group and a former UK chief scientific adviser, said: “It is incredibly concerning and surprising to hear the Cop28 president defend the use of fossil fuels. It is undeniable that to limit global warming to 1.5C we must all rapidly reduce carbon emissions and phase-out the use of fossil fuels by 2035 at the latest. The alternative is an unmanageable future for humanity.”

Bill Hare, the CEO at Climate Analytics, said: “This is an extraordinary, revealing, worrying and belligerent exchange. ‘Sending us back to caves’ is the oldest of fossil fuel industry tropes: it’s verging on climate denial.”

Read Damian Carrington’s full story here:

Updated

Reaching an agreement on fossil fuel phase-out will be “very challenging”, according to Meena Raman, head of programmes at of Third World Network and an expert on the UN climate negotiations (this is her 16th Cop), who is closely following the global stock-take negotiations. Many of the early sticking points are centred on what developing countries consider to be the “duplicity and hypocrisy of the developed countries”.

“Developed countries come here playing to the gallery when they talk about a fossil fuel phaseout, while at the same time continuing to expand production … and don’t acknowledge the significant contribution national oil companies make to some developing countries’ budgets,” said Raman, who is from Malaysia, where the national oil company contributes about 20% to the national budget.

“For the global south there can be no discussion about a fossil fuel phaseout without a discussion about sustainable development, economic diversification and the overuse – historic and current – of the carbon budget by the west,” added Raman.

Implementation is another huge and connected issue for developing countries, many of which do not have the financial resources, technology or capacity to shift from fossil fuels to a renewable energy system. “Storage, transmission, grid transformation … these all take resources but the climate finance promised in Copenhagen has never materialised, and the second replenishment of the green climate fund has less money than the first.”

Pedro Pedroso, the Cuban chair of the G77 plus China which represents 135 countries, also called out the west’s double standards over fossil fuels. “There is a lot of hypocrisy with many of the countries which are pushing for fossil fuel phase-out by developing countries out increasing their production, like the US, UK, and Norway. And these are countries who have already used so much of the carbon space – where is the justice and equity in that?”

A diversity of opinions exists among the developing countries, with the small island states pushing for a fossil fuel phaseout while the Arab states are not. Oil contributes 80% to the national budget of Oman, and while the country has since 2021 required all new energy projects to be renewable (solar and wind), the country’s target to reduce emissions by 21% by 2025 (from a 2022 baseline), will be mostly achieved by making oil and gas production “green” through renewables and carbon capture and storage.

“While there is a global demand for fossil fuels, the Arab nations will keep producing it,” said Dr Abdullah Bin Ali Al Amri, Oman’s environment minister and deputy head of the Cop delegation.

Updated

Hosts the United Arab Emirates will be disappointed that today, designated as Cop28’s health day, has coincided with a blanket of hazy smog over the city.

Waqi.info, a real-time pollution tracker, showed that PM2.5 fine particulate matter reached a level of 165 micrograms per cubic metre – a level rated as unhealthy.

Delegates have reported hazy conditions in Dubai over the first few days of the conference.

Updated

Indigenous groups condemn murder of activist in Peru

Indigenous representatives have been speaking out at Cop28 following the murder this week of an environmental defender in Peru who was opposing illegal logging and drug trafficking in his territory.

Apu Quinto Inuma Alvarado, a Kichwa leader of the Santa Rosillo de Yanayacu community, was shot dead by hooded men on Wednesday while travelling home via boat from a workshop for female environmental leaders in the Amazon.

Quinto Inuma had received numerous death threats over his opposition to illegal logging in and around his communities territories. The Peruvian government said he had been the victim of a “cowardly” attack and promised a thorough investigation, AP reported.

Nelsith Sangama, from the Kichwa community in Peru who is attending the climate summit, said her community and others needed more support to protect climate-critical ecosystems like the Amazon.

Nelsith Sangama, from the Kichwa community in Peru
Nelsith Sangama, from the Kichwa community in Peru. Photograph: Patrick Greenfield/The Guardian

“We mourn him. He’s a Kichwa brother, a leader who stood up to this threat. He warned about this situation and wasn’t taken seriously, now we are burying him. We ask for justice for this crime. No Indigenous leader should be killed for standing up for their territory,” she said.

“International decision makers need to create something to help environmental defenders with their own budget. The state is responsible for this most recent death. More than 30 have been killed in the Peruvian Amazon. We need our own support. It is the communities that are defending life, defending the forest, not the authorities,” she said.

Figures collected by Global Witness show the world’s largest rainforest is the most dangerous place in the world to be an environmental defender.

Analysis of the $1.7bn Cop26 pledge Indigenous and local communities earlier this week indicated that the commitment was on track and could even be exceeded. The money goes towards establishing land rights of Indigenous communities, which have been shown to be the best protectors of the planet’s biodiversity and climate-critical ecosystems.

Updated

One notable thing to come out of the leaders’ speeches over the past two days was that four countries used their three-minute speeches to explicitly call for Taiwan to be included in UN climate talks.

The prime ministers of Saint Lucia, Saint Kitts and Nevis and Tuvalu, and the president of Eswatini (formerly Swaziland), all called for Taiwan to be explicitly included in the talks.

Taiwan aspires to participate in the talks, but has not been a UN member since 1971 due to ongoing disputes with China about its status.

The Taiwanese foreign ministry tweeted – without naming China – calling for its inclusion in negotiations.

Should there be a cap on how many people a country can send to climate conferences? A recent study by academics at Lund University in Sweden makes the case that the way the Cop process is structured benefits big countries at the expense of small ones, and calls for reform.

The authors call for a limit to the number of delegates a country can send, pointing out that China, for example, sends hundreds of people every year while many small countries, who are often the most vulnerable to the effects of climate breakdown, are only able to send a handful.

Lead author Lina Lefstad said: “The UN should at the very least have a cap on how many delegates a country or an organisation can send. It is only by changing the structure, to allow for the majority of voices to be heard, the negotiations can become truly fair”

The paper concludes: “The organisation of climate negotiations under the UNFCCC reproduce the injustices as the vulnerable are not heard and the powerful continue with harmful practices without legal repercussions.

“We must ask: What can the current global climate regime achieve when 25 years later there is still no consensus on a universally agreed policy response to the justice-problem? It is clear that the voices of the marginalised should be heard and implemented in agreements for climate justice to materialise.”

Updated

Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather has a statistic that should help focus minds at Cop28: last month has been confirmed as the warmest November the world has ever recorded, 1.6C (2.9F) above pre-industrial levels.

Updated

Sunak criticised for climate policies as Starmer stays in Dubai

The British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, has been facing criticism at home for the brevity of his visit to the climate conference, having visited for less than a day. He has also been accused of hypocrisy for pushing for a phase-out of fossil fuels only weeks after approving new oil and gas licences in the North Sea.

Al Gore, the former US vice-president, said: “I am not impressed with prime minister Sunak’s climate policies. I think they’re terrible. They’re very disappointing.”

Former cabinet minister Lord Deben said: “The oil decision means that the UK no longer leads the world on climate; it undermines confidence in our commitment to net zero, and it makes it much harder to get the foreign investment we need. The decision to grant oil licences is economic nonsense.”

The leader of the opposition, Keir Starmer, seems to have sensed an opportunity and is still at the conference, meeting world leaders and generally trying to portray himself as prime minister in waiting.

Keir Starmer and John Kerry meet at Cop28
Keir Starmer and John Kerry meet at Cop28. Photograph: Fiona Harvey/The Guardian

Updated

Luca Lo Re, an analyst at the International Energy Agency, has pointed out that the new pledges to the loss and damage fund look fairly insignificant when compared with the money being spent on football in Saudi Arabia these days.

On the eve of Cop28’s health day, a report yesterday revealed that unless fossil fuels are rapidly phased out, one in 12 hospitals around the world are at risk of full or partial shutdown.

Cross Dependency Initiative (XDI), which published the report, said that a residential or commercial building with that level of risk would be considered uninsurable.

“Climate change is increasingly impacting the health of people around the world,” said Dr Karl Mallon, the director of science and technology at XDI. “What happens when severe weather results in hospital shutdowns as well? Our analysis shows that without a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, the risks to global health will be exacerbated further, as thousands of hospitals become unable to deliver services during crises.”

Helena Horton has more detail here:

Updated

Observer cartoonist Chris Riddell’s latest offering tackles Cop28:

Chris Riddell’s Observer cartoon on 3 December 2023.
Chris Riddell’s Observer cartoon on 3 December 2023. Illustration: Chris Riddell/The Observer

Dorcas Naishorua is a youth climate activist from Kajiado county in Kenya, and Miss Climate Kenya. “I am at Cop28 to advocate for climate justice, which means getting the people causing climate change to pay for the damage. It is not us Africans doing the damage.”

She is studying music at university: “It is a very beautiful way to collect stories.” She is also the founder of the Isilan Community-Based Organisation, which tackles female genital mutilation, early marriage and gender-based violence.

Naishorua is a strong entry in our best-dressed series, but said: “You haven’t seen me in my full attire - this is only a quarter of it!”

Dorcas Naishorua of Kenya at Cop28
Dorcas Naishorua of Kenya at Cop28. Photograph: Damian Carrington/The Guardian

The campaign group Ekō (formerly known as SumOfUs) says it has been denied permission to hold a protest targeting the airline Emirates, which is based in the UAE.

A spokesperson said the action would have taken place in the green zone – which is controlled by hosts the UAE – rather than the blue zone, controlled by organisers the UNFCCC.

Ekō say the action “would have depicted an Emirates airplane with fake pollution, and 3-6 individuals holding placards that say ‘Emirates: contribute to the loss and damage fund’”.

They say the organisers have not told them why permission for the protest was declined, but that they suggested targeting the airline industry as a whole rather than singling out Emirates.

Asked why permission for the protest was denied and whether organisers had made suggestions about changing the focus, a Cop28 spokesperson told the Guardian: “In line with UNFCCC guidelines there will be space available both in blue and green zones for climate activists to make their voices heard. The UAE protects the right to protest in line with relevant international agreements, including Article 21 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, which recognises the right of peaceful assembly and does not permit its restriction except in accordance with the law and when necessary to maintain national security, public order, the protection of public interest, or the protection of the rights and freedoms of others.”

Australia has backed a pledge to triple global energy capacity by 2050, a move welcomed by climate campaigners.

But climate minister Chris Bowen refused to say whether Australia would push for language on phasing out fossil fuels to be included in the Cop28 texts.

“We will be in there arguing for a very sensible strengthening [of language],” Bowen said. “We’ll see what coalition emerges internationally in good company, but we’ll be in that good company. Unlike previous [Cops] when Australia was in very bad company, blocking efforts, I’ll be there working for a sensible outcome to get consensus across the board.”

Under the Coalition governments of Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison (and to a lesser extent that of Malcolm Turnbull), Australia was one of the most recalcitrant governments in climate talks, blocking progress towards reducing fossil fuel use.

Under Anthony Albanese’s Labor government, campaigners are hopeful that things will improve, but the country is still seen as an international laggard. Australia has expressed interest in hosting Cop31, but it is not known when a decision will be made.

Adam Morton and Katharine Murphy have the full story:

Countries and companies are failing to report their emissions accurately, despite obligations to do so under the Paris agreement, new data has shown.

It shows electricity generation in China and India, and oil and gas production in the US, have produced the biggest increases in global greenhouse gas emissions since 2015, when the Paris climate agreement was signed. Emissions of methane, have also risen despite more than 100 countries signing up to a pledge to reduce the gas.

The analysis comes from former US vice-president Al Gore’s Climate Trace initiative. Gore spoke to the Guardian about it yesterday, and Fiona Harvey, Oliver Milman and Damian Carrington have the full story here:

Protests are strictly controlled at Cop28, but this dugong is getting her message across to delegates as they arrive for day four of the summit.

A protest against fossil fuels at Cop28 in Dubai.
A protest against fossil fuels at Cop28 in Dubai. Photograph: Peter Dejong/AP

Good morning! This is Alan Evans, bringing you coverage from the fourth day of the UN’s Cop28 climate summit.

The Guardian will be liveblogging the negotiations throughout. You can email me on alan.evans@theguardian.com or on X/Twitter at @itsalanevans, and my colleague Jonathan Watts (jonathan.watts@theguardian.com) will take over later on.

Today’s official themes are health, relief, recovery and peace, so we can expect several announcements and reports on those subjects.

Here are some of yesterday’s highlights:

  • Colombia, a major fossil fuel producer, has formally joined an alliance of nations calling for a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty to prevent the “omnicide of planet Earth”.

  • The US was one of several countries to join an alliance to phase out power plants that burn coal and announced rules to cut its methane emissions.

  • At least 117 governments agreed to triple the world’s capacity of renewable energy by 2030 and double the rate of energy efficiency improvements.

  • Fifty oil and gas companies signed a “decarbonisation charter” that analysts have criticised for ignoring the emissions spewed when customers burn the fuels.

  • Twenty-two countries have pledged to triple nuclear capacity by 2050.

Read more in our main news wrap from yesterday:

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