Marine Le Pen on Wednesday said her far-right National Rally party’s accession to power was only "postponed", despite its third-place finish in the July 7 second round of the legislative elections. Although the party elected a record number of deputies to the National Assembly, its weaknesses were also exposed during the campaign.
Though it won the biggest share of the vote in the first round of the election for seats in the National Assembly, the National Rally (RN) finished in third place after the second round on July 7, overtaken by the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition and the centrist alliance of President Emmanuel Macron.
The results of the second round of voting illustrate both the RN’s strengths and weaknesses in its bid to win power in France.
In the new Assembly, the 143 seats won by the RN bloc, including 17 from conservative allies, mark a significant gain from the 89 seats the party won in 2022. The left-wing NFP alliance has 182 seats, ahead of Macron's coalition with 168.
The RN’s electoral advance “has been contained but not stopped", says Arnaud Benedetti, editor-in-chief of the Revue politique et parlementaire. "We can conclude that the National Rally is firmly established in the parliamentary landscape,” says Benedetti, adding that the party will try to “strengthen these foundations” as it prepares for the 2027 presidential election.
The second round of the vote showed that the RN's elected representatives are gaining a solid foothold with voters.
Most of the party’s MPs who were seeking re-election kept their seats. In 2022, 89 constituencies elected an RN candidate to the National Assembly, and 81 voted to re-elect him or her in 2024.
The spread of far-right ideas
The far right is increasingly winning the battle of ideas, according to journalist Salomé Saqué: "Racist speech has been unleashed. Dozens of physical attacks have been recorded all over France, accompanied by racist insults," she posted on social media.
During the campaign, she said, the RN managed to shift the debate in the direction of its primary themes, of “insecurity, immigration” – and to impose “its vocabulary”.
For Benedetti, the result of these legislative elections represents a "failure" for the far right given the forecasts of a large RN victory.
Leading in 258 out of 577 constituencies after the first round, the RN sank to third place in the second round, behind the NFP and the centrist presidential camp.
The RN had to contend with the so-called "Republican front" in the second round, where parties of the left and centre decide to co-operate to defeat the far right. More than 200 candidates across France pulled out of the second round so that a better-placed rival could prevent the RN from winning.
The Republican Front strategy “worked better than anyone imagined", says Benedetti.
National Rally president Jordan Bardella described the move by left and centrist parties to combine forces to block the RN as an "alliance of dishonour". "These agreements throw France into the arms of Jean-Luc Mélenchon's far left," he added during a speech at RN headquarters.
Bardella’s rhetoric is seen by critics as playing on the longstanding feelings of resentment RN voters have towards traditional parties that band together to oppose their party.
The RN “will certainly capitalise on what will be perceived by part of their electorate as what they call 'theft'", says Benedetti.
While the strategy of blocking the RN may have worked again, every issue that “is at the core of the National Rally vote remains", says Benedetti. "The question of purchasing power, law and order, neglect of rural districts and regions ... All these issues are not going to miraculously disappear before 2027."
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Lack of professionalism and racist remarks
Benedetti says the RN's defeat also has other causes: "The lack of professionalism of their candidates during the campaign worked against them and may have dissuaded voters from voting for them".
France Culture journalist Nora Hamadi says there were also “mistakes made by RN staffers", who were unable to prevent a number of candidates from making speeches "which brought out the racist and xenophobic” aspects of the party.
In addition, Bardella, the party’s candidate to head the government, could have been seen by some supporters "as insufficiently prepared for the role of prime minister", says Benedetti.
The controversy over the status of French people who have dual nationality may also have slowed the RN's progress, he says.
RN deputy Roger Chudeau, who has been re-elected, said during the campaign that the appointment of the former Socialist Education Minister, Najat Vallaud-Belkacem, a "Franco-Moroccan", had been a "mistake", referring more broadly to a risk of "dual loyalty" on the part of dual nationals.
Le Pen distanced herself from her Chudeau's "personal positions" which she judged to be "contrary" to the party line.
Faced with contentious comments by what Bardella called “black sheep” candidates, the RN blamed a very tight timeframe in which to vet candidates due to Macron’s surprise dissolution of the Assembly.
Before the second-round vote Bardella said that candidates who made racist, xenophobic or conspiracy-mongering statements during the legislative campaign had no place in the RN.
"All those who make comments that are not in line with my convictions will be thrown out," he said.
The larger question is whether the RN can rid itself of its "black sheep", leverage its voting bloc in the Assembly to become more of a party of government and succeed in improving its image for the next election.
(With AFP)
This article has been translated from the original in French.
