Consumers are unlikely to benefit from lower maintenance spending by networks as higher-cost coal-fired power plants make way for new energy sources.
The renewable energy transition was expected to slow the growth in electricity maintenance spending and there would be some years where maintenance on electricity generators falls, according to Oxford Economics Australia forecaster Nicholas Fearnley.
"Renewable generators require much less maintenance than fossil fuel generators per megawatt hour, and so maintenance spending will naturally fall as coal power plants are replaced by wind and solar," Dr. Fearnley said.
While not necessarily bad news for maintenance jobs, as renewable energy expands its footprint, savings are not expected to flow through to power bills.
Instead, reduced spending will be largely offset by growing maintenance spending on transmission networks as they are expanded to unlock new renewable energy zones.
Some regulators have already increased the allowed capital expenditure for electricity distribution and transmission companies.
"We think these decisions will be repeated by other state regulators in upcoming pricing reviews and so signals higher maintenance spending for network owners," Dr Fearnley said.
Electricity generation maintenance spending is expected to fall from $978 million in 2023/24 to $964 million in 2024/25, and drop to $644 million by 2033/34.
Telecommunications maintenance was forecast to continue falling as NBNCo replaces parts of the existing copper network with fibre.
Maintaining the copper network accounts for more than one-third (around 38 per cent) of telco maintenance spending, and fibre networks are much cheaper to maintain.
Mining maintenance was also slowing and manufacturing maintenance was soft amid economic headwinds, Dr Fearnley said.
"The mining investment boom at the start of the last decade was following by a mining production boom, and then a mining maintenance boom," he explained.
"We think this boom is now approaching its peak, and we are seeing signs that asset owners are looking to manage their maintenance costs."
The exception is copper, which accounts for more than a quarter of maintenance spending on metal ore mining, helped by demand for electric vehicles and consumer electronic products.
Relatively high commodity prices are supporting coal production, with maintenance worth around $3.6 billion in each of the next few years.
All up, the Australian maintenance market was estimated to be worth $57.4 billion in 2024/25, according to the independent forecasts.
