Canada's right-leaning Progressive Conservatives are set to retain power on Thursday in Ontario, the country's most populous province, helped by a promise to increase spending despite a massive existing debt load.
A series of polls showed the party led by Doug Ford has a clear lead over the opposition New Democrats and the Liberals, who both compete for the center-left vote. An Ekos Research poll published Sunday gave the Progressive Conservatives a seven-point lead over its closest challenger, the Liberal Party.
Ford, who swept to power in 2018 after 15 years of Liberal rule, needs to win 63 seats in the 124-seat provincial legislature to retain his majority. At dissolution they held 67.
Ontario, home to just under 40% of Canada's 38.2 million people, is Canada's manufacturing heartland. It is also one of the world's largest sub-sovereign borrowers, with publicly held debt currently standing at C$418.7 billion ($330.8 billion).
With inflation in Canada at a three-decade high, housing and cost of living issues drove the election campaign.
In a pre-election budget in April, Ford promised billions of dollars of spending on infrastructure projects and outlined a tax credit for low-income earners, resulting in a higher budget deficit in the current fiscal year than the last.
The budget also put forth a slower path back to balance than some analysts had expected.
"Day 29, I am so excited!" Ford, 57, said in a video tweeted on Wednesday, referring to the 29th day of his campaign.
With a debt-to-GDP ratio of 40.7%, Ontario's debt load is higher than the next three most populous provinces and it pays more to borrow in the bond market.
Ford's popularity plunged in 2020 amid accusations Ontario had bungled the COVID-19 epidemic.
But his fortunes revived this year, in part through some populist moves like eliminating license plate renewal fees and expanding a foreign buyer tax on homes.
The New Democrats of Andrea Horwath vowed to create an annual speculation and vacancy tax on residential property.
The Liberals, led by Steven Del Duca, promised to reduce public transit fares while imposing a surtax on companies with annual profits exceeding C$1 billion.
A poll tracker maintained by the Canadian Broadcasting Corp showed that the Liberals and the New Democrats each had just a 1%-chance of winning.
(Reporting by Ismail Shakil in Ottawa; Editing by Denny Thomas and Richard Pullin)
