The Conservative's grip on Nottinghamshire has been predicted to loosen in the next general election, according to a new poll. Out of 88 battleground seats the Tories won from Labour in 2019, or hold a narrow majority, they would hold on to just three.
Interestingly these three include Nottinghamshire's Ashfield and Bassetlaw, while Dudley North would form the third. Ashfield currently sits with Lee Anderson, who hit the headlines with controversial statements over the cost of living recently, while Bassetlaw is in Brendan Clarke-Smith's hands.
It is however worth noting the poll does not track some independent parties, such as the Ashfield Independents. This means in reality the results in constituencies such as Ashfield may be different in an election when these are correctly accounted for.
For example a separate election prediction, on 'electionmapsuk', predicts the independents could gain the seat from Mr Anderson in an election if held now. This predicts Labour in second place and the Conservatives in third.
The YouGov poll, which collated the results using 15,000 votes from across England between May 19 and May 27, also reveals Prime Minister Boris Johnson could well lose his own seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip. The Conservative Party has been embroiled in controversy amid the partygate scandal, in which the PM himself was fined for breaching covid restrictions at one of many gatherings at Downing Street.
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In areas such as Geding, Broxtowe and Rushcliffe, Labour looks set to make gains as a result of the dwindling confidence in the current Government. In Gedling Labour's Vernon Coaker held the reins from 1997 until 2019 when the Conservative's Tom Randall took control with a very narrow margin of 679 votes.
This key battleground for the Tories, which had for many years stood as a Labour stronghold, looks set to fall back into the red with a 13-point lead. Similarly Broxtowe, whereby Conservative Darren Henry (who replaced Anna Soubry after she quit to join Change UK) pipped Labour's Greg Marshall by 5,331 votes, is expected to fall into Labour's hands with six points.
Broxtowe had not been in Labour's hands since 2010 when Ms Soubry, now a criminal barrister, superseded Nick Palmer with just 390 votes. Mr Henry's wife Caroline, the Tory crime commissioner, pleaded guilty to five speeding offences recently, prompting serious concerns across the borough.
And in Rushcliffe a similar picture has been painted. This is perhaps the most interesting, having been safely in the hands of the Conservatives under Ken Clarke's unfaltering reign from 1970. Ruth Edwards took over in 2019 but the Conservative's grip is looking considerably weaker according to the poll, dropping by 13 points to Labour's four point gain.
