Kerala’s mainstream political parties, notably the Congress and the BJP, will be keenly scrutinising the Assembly poll results from neighbouring Karnataka, holding their breath for a potential resurgence in the State.
However, the results on Saturday not only will reverberate beyond the Congress and the BJP, but it will also influence the ruling Left parties and their allies, the Loktantrik Janata Dal (LJD) and the Janata Dal (Secular) [JD(S)] whose proposed merger hangs in the balance.
A clear majority for the Congress, dislodging the ruling BJP in the political sweepstakes, would be a psychological booster for the party in Kerala which has faced successive defeats in the Assembly polls held in 2016 and 2021.
Sources say a Congress defeat or a hung Assembly signals not just a setback for the party but a dive into political obscurity. Funds from Karnataka’s wealthy counterparts would dwindle, pushing mid-level leaders into despondency and enforced hibernation. The north Malabar districts would be the hardest hit, they say.
Conversely, if the BJP secures another term in power, overcoming the apparent anti-incumbent sentiment in Karnataka, its Central leaders could bolster their strategy for expansion beyond the Vindhya region in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. However, should the party fail to maintain its hold on power, the political climate may turn unfavourable for the BJP to bloom in Kerala.
While the results of the Karnataka Assembly elections might not directly impact the CPI(M), as the leading force in the Left coalition it will be compelled to examine the pending amalgamation of the LJD and JD(S). This becomes a matter of paramount importance if the latter, in a provocative act of political manoeuvring, chooses to form an alliance with the BJP in the midst of a hung Assembly. Such a move could herald the birth of new political entity, sources say.
Intriguingly, the JD(S) had backed CPI (M) candidates in three constituencies during the Karnataka elections. In a curious twist of allegiances, the CPI had backed Congress nominees in various segments. Deepening the intrigue, both the CPI(M) and the CPI had fielded candidates in the Kolar Gold Field constituency.
Undoubtedly, Karnataka serves as the stage for a high-octane electoral showdown. The political tussle is deemed by many as a pivotal precursor to the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections, a litmus test that could significantly shape the contours of Opposition unity.
The spectacle is set to continue unabated as Assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Rajasthan, and Telangana are coming up later this year.
