It's been a season of contrasting fortunes so far for Sunderland fans.
After a blistering start to the campaign, a wobble in form saw the Black Cats fall from their perch at the top of the League One table and drop into the play-offs.
Lee Johnson's side were able to bounce back from their wobble, only to collapse once more, losing three of their last four games - including a 6-0 thrashing against Bolton, and defeat against basement side Doncaster Rovers.
The defeat against the Trotters saw Johnson axed with Alex Neil his replacement, but last weekend's draw with AFC Wimbledon only highlighted the task ahead.
Sunderland may sit fourth in the League One table, but there's a 13 point gap to the leaders Rotherham United, who have a game in hand, while Wigan Athletic are four points clear in the second automatic promotion place, with four games in hand on the Wearsiders.
The Black Cats will need a hand from elsewhere if they're able to claw back at the deficit, but ultimately, need to assess their current dismal run of form.
FiveThirtyEight, a supercomputer which predicts the final standing in the division, previously tipped the Black Cats to finish second in League One, one point above fellow promotion chasers Wigan Athletic, but all that has changed.
The supercomputer is predicting Sunderland to finish in the final play-off spot, alongside MK Dons, Sheffield Wednesday and Wycombe - edging out Plymouth Argyle by a single point.
The Black Cats have a 15% chance of promotion but less than a 1% chance of winning the title, with the supercomputer giving Neil's side a 48% chance of finishing in the play-offs.
It's a worrying prediction and one that Sunderland fans will hate after spending four seasons longing for promotion back to the Championship.
