Although the United Kingdom left the European Union over two years ago, there are still considerable disagreements concerning the implementation of the Northern Ireland protocol. This agreement keeps Northern Ireland in the EU’s single market for goods to protect the highly integrated all-island economy and safeguard the Good Friday Agreement, or GFA, which brought peace to the island of Ireland.
From an economic point of view, Northern Ireland is performing better than any other region in the U.K., with the protocol protecting it from the negative effects of Brexit. In fact, it is starting to flourish under its opportunities. For its part, the European Commission came forward with unprecedented levels of flexibility to its rules to try to solve some of the remaining issues.
The unique historical, legal and social circumstances on the island of Ireland, with part of the island under the legal jurisdiction of the U.K., means that Brexit imposes fundamental impacts on the country.
Changes in the customs arrangements that have added some procedures in sending goods between Britain and Northern Ireland have angered a sizable cohort, the majority of which form the pro-British unionist communities, causing tensions to flare up again. Some of the extreme elements have engaged in rioting and violence, but the Northern Ireland of today, although still carrying scars from the past, has continued down the process of peace building and has become more resilient because of this.
The tension is due in no small part to the irresponsible and self-serving rhetoric of some political figures, using genuine issues concerning the practical functioning of the Northern Ireland protocol as a vehicle to advance short-term political goals.
Protection of the GFA is a pillar of U.S. foreign policy, a rare case of long-standing bipartisan consensus in an otherwise hyperpolarized political scene. Successive presidents, Democratic and Republican, and leaders in both chambers of Congress have positively influenced the peace process, using their unique position of having deep connections to both the U.K. and Ireland.
The U.K. and the U.S. also share a close and long-standing relationship, being key allies in many areas. With the prospect of a U.S. trade deal being the key driver for many Brexiteers, President Joe Biden finds himself in a position in which he can positively influence the stability in Northern Ireland by pressuring the U.K. not to renege on agreements that it has just signed up to, as Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his government have frequently threatened.
Beyond statements, the Biden administration decided to keep Trump-era tariffs on U.K. steel and aluminum imports, instead lifting tariffs on the same commodities from EU manufacturers. This was a clear rebuke of the U.K.’s threats, and it was no coincidence that suddenly the political language started to soften, bringing with it more room for productive dialogue.
Biden, who is immensely proud of his Irish roots, has wisely correlated his conviction in protecting the GFA with the need to keep the protocol, which poses a problem for Johnson. Unlike Paris, Brussels or Berlin, attacks on Washington are not in Johnson’s political or diplomatic interest and would directly fly in the face of “global Britain.”
An agreement between the U.K. and the EU is in the strategic and economic interests of the U.S. Disruption and uncertainty are not good for businesses or trade, nor is it beneficial to have your geopolitical allies at odds with one another.
Nevertheless, the unfortunate truth is that Johnson has a major credibility problem. Yes, genuine issues exist — and continued dialogue is necessary to find their fair remedy — but it is the politics, not the technical aspects, that remains the biggest barrier.
However, many of Johnson’s Tory backbenchers have an ideological vision of Brexit, combined with little understanding of or concern for how it will affect the fragile situation in Northern Ireland. Like the U.S., the U.K. is in a state of polarization, with Brexit dividing the electorate along new political lines. With a series of high-profile scandals, a stunning election defeat in a district conservatives held for over 200 years, North Shropshire, and the worsening pandemic, Johnson is under extreme pressure from his own party.
The prime minister’s lead negotiator and Brexit minister, David Frost, has resigned, citing his disillusionment with the direction of Johnson’s government — the 47th ministerial resignation related to Brexit. However, the departure of Frost, a hard-liner fundamentalist, provides a rare opportunity to reinject trust into a pivotal moment in negotiations.
With elections just around the corner in Northern Ireland, a deal must be reached in January if we are to have any hope of stability. The Biden administration is in a unique position at this critical time. With little effort, Biden can pressure both parties — mostly the U.K. — to negotiate in good faith for a mutually beneficial agreement, which for all intents and purposes is within reach.
This would be good for business all around.
