Nearly six months into his murderous invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has brought shame on his once great nation and cemented his own legacy as a war criminal. The lasting ignominy Putin’s war and his lies have brought to Russia are just as self-destructive as they are contemptible and unjustifiable.
The Pentagon estimates Russia has lost up to 80,000 soldiers, killed or wounded, in the conflict. Russia’s invasion has destabilized control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in southern Ukraine, raising fears of a nuclear accident putting Europe at risk. And other Russians are voting with their feet.
By some estimates, hundreds of thousands have left the country in protest, fearing reprisals for their antiwar views, or to avoid possible forced mobilization or closing borders, since Putin launched his war of choice on Feb. 24 against Ukraine. It’s a brain drain of professionals that may cause lasting damage.
No one can know Putin’s intention nor predict his endgame with any certainty. But experts believe he is digging in to continue this war for the long haul. By most accounts, Putin is losing the war — failing to meet his changing military objectives, solidifying the democratically elected government of Ukraine, unifying NATO and expanding its membership, and turning Russia into a pariah state — so why would he opt for an indefinite war?
First of all, he has painted himself into a corner, and even President Joe Biden has observed that the Russian leader “doesn’t have a way out right now, and I’m trying to figure out what we do about that.” He’s losing, yet he seems intent on escalating the war.
Experts assess he may now try to drag out the war to wear down Ukrainian resolve, degrade Kyiv’s military and prolong the conflict into the fall — when the passing months might weaken NATO unity in Europe and bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States. Seeking to destabilize America’s midterm elections and undermine Democrats and Biden would be right out of the Putin playbook.
“Destabilizing and weakening America is the interest of Russia,” Olga Kamenchuk, an associate research professor and a Ukrainian expert with Northwestern University, told me. She noted Russia could seek to undermine U.S. elections again, as before, through cyberattacks. “It can hurt Biden” if the war drags on, Kamenchuk said.
To be sure, Democrats and most Republicans in Congress have been incredibly unified in favor of aiding Ukraine, approving some $40 billion in assistance to Ukraine. The hope is to support Ukraine and speed shipments of weapons and humanitarian assistance while the U.S. avoids involving American and NATO troops in a shooting war with Russia.
Russia’s military campaign has been disastrous. Putin failed to take Kyiv as expected in the early days of the war. He changed strategies and pressed a concentrated assault in the eastern Donbas region, but that has made slow gains there and on a southern front. Thwarted militarily by Ukraine’s strong resistance, the Kremlin has opted for what looks a lot like genocide: war crimes that include bombing civilians, committing mass murder, rape, torture and execution-style killings — even transferring Ukrainians into Russia against their will.
More broadly, Putin has demanded NATO move back from Russia’s borders and still dreams of a Russkiy Mir, or Russian World, with the Kremlin wielding a sphere of influence over former Soviet republics such as Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. That ideology was used as a justification when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, but this time, Ukraine fought back.
“Putin knows Russia is not strong enough to annex those countries, but he could have hegemony over them and say he has a Eurasian union,” Ian Kelly, ambassador in residence at Northwestern University, told me.
Like many observers, Kelly strongly supports the West arming Ukraine to defeat Russia on the battlefield, but he’s also concerned about a scenario in which Putin is cornered, up against the wall and turns to tactical nuclear weapons or chemical weapons as a last resort. “I hope we have diplomatic channels into the Kremlin. That’s the kind of escalation that is in no one’s interest,” he said.
Putin has failed to push NATO back from Russian borders to the alliance’s 1991 borders. NATO appears more unified than ever, and as some have said, Putin has made NATO great again. Finland and Sweden are moving deliberately now to join NATO. If that happens, given Finland’s 800-mile border with Russia, the length of Russia’s land border with NATO countries would more than double.
If Putin still thinks he can force Ukraine away from leaning to the West, that seems increasingly a nonstarter, too. For Ukraine’s part, having suffered the loss of thousands of lives and seen the destruction of its cities, the time for compromise is quickly passing. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned, “There is no occupier who can take root in our free land. There is no invader who can rule over our free people. Sooner or later, we win.”
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ABOUT THE WRITER
Storer H. Rowley, a former foreign correspondent and national editor for the Chicago Tribune, is an adjunct lecturer in journalism and communication at Northwestern University.
