September was a rocky month for Vladimir Putin, the Russian strongman used to getting his way after more than two decades at the top of Russia’s political hierarchy.
First came a tactical embarrassment of monumental proportions, when Russian forces lost more than 1,000 square miles of territory south of Kharkiv, Ukraine, in a manner of days — exposing the Russian army’s slapdash nature for the umpteenth time. Then came the diplomatic finger-wagging from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who used a public appearance with Putin on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit to urge him toward dialogue. A day earlier, Putin himself acknowledged that China, which Moscow increasingly depends on for political and economic support, had “questions and concerns” about how the war was proceeding.
Putin’s mobilization of 300,000 reservists, a decision he avoided for nearly eight months, sparked the most vocal acts of opposition from the Russian public since the war began. Protests cropped up in dozens of cities and towns across the country. Terrified at the idea of risking their lives for a mystifying cause, men eligible for the draft rushed to airports, bus depots and train stations; at least 200,000 Russians have fled the country since the Kremlin’s order was announced. Russian business leaders are so concerned about the loss of able-bodied workers that they are asking the Russian government to exempt those with specialized skills.
Putin is therefore desperate for anything he can call a win. His highly manufactured signing ceremony on Friday at the Grand Kremlin Palace, where he approved the incorporation of four Ukrainian regions — Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — into the Russian Federation, was meant to serve that purpose. Addressing hundreds of dignitaries underneath a gaudy chandelier, Putin lambasted the collective West for attempting to destroy Russia and colonizing others throughout history. The irony of these remarks occurring at the same time Russia is trying to colonize Ukraine was apparently lost on Putin.
“I want the Kyiv authorities and their real masters in the West to hear me, so that they remember this,” Putin bellowed. “People living in Luhansk and Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are becoming our citizens. Forever.”
Nobody on the planet, save outcasts such as North Korea and Syria, are buying into it. President Joe Biden promptly released a statement calling Moscow’s annexation of occupied Ukrainian territories an illegitimate, offensive trampling of the United Nations Charter. Even before the fraudulent annexation referendums were over, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz let it be known that Berlin would “never recognize” the results. Even U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, whose language has been relatively restrained so as not to damage the U.N.’s credibility as a peace mediator, was livid.
On its face, it would seem that Putin’s annexation of east and southeast Ukraine doesn’t change things all that much. Just like Russia’s previous absorption of Crimea, Moscow will insist these four Ukrainian regions are now an integral part of its territory, while everybody else will reject this change of status as if it never happened.
The Crimea comparison, however, doesn’t hold. Crimea was already under full Russian control when Putin took it over. The Crimea takeover was also bloodless; Ukrainian government forces didn’t put up a fight.
Not so with the Ukrainian oblasts Putin annexed on Friday. In fact, the Russians don’t have full control over any of them. Luhansk, which was all but gobbled up by Russian troops in early July, is seeing renewed fighting. Ukrainian forces still control major population centers in Donetsk and are on the upswing in the northern part of the territory, booting the Russians from Lyman, a town on the way to the more populous areas of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Russian troops have their hands full in Kherson, where approximately 25,000 are trying to hold their positions as Ukrainian forces attack the land and pontoon bridges used for resupply.
Putin, in other words, has essentially declared victory over swaths of Ukraine he doesn’t control — and the Ukrainians have no intent of giving it to him. By seeking to create a victory out of the jaws of defeat, Putin has just created another problem for the depleted and underresourced Russian military, which will now be expected, at a minimum, to capture every inch of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Anything less would be another blunder for Putin and his war effort, not to mention more evidence of Russia’s numerous military shortcomings.
The annexation is significant for another reason: It puts the kibosh on end-of-war diplomacy between Kyiv and Moscow. True, there wasn’t much diplomacy to begin with. Both sides believe it’s in their interest to keep fighting for their own distinct reasons. For Ukraine, it’s about not wanting to legitimize the seizure of territory by the Russians or offer them a much-needed freeze in the conflict, which Moscow would use to rest and rearm for future offensives. For Russia, it’s partly about preventing a scenario in which the original war objectives have to be downsized, a tacit admission of failure. Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are in many ways conducting the same strategy: Bide your time and outlast the other until exhaustion sets in.
Last week’s events, however, change the game. If the prospects of a negotiation were infinitesimal last week, they are practically impossible today. Zelenskyy said as much before and after the faux referendums were conducted: If Putin annexes anything, talks are a worthless exercise.
This is troubling news for those around the world who want the war to end as soon as possible. But our feelings are irrelevant. The only two people who can end the fighting don’t want to.
____
ABOUT THE WRITER
Daniel DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a foreign affairs columnist for the Chicago Tribune.
