Anything other than a pledge and a plan to fund a national housebuilding and council housebuilding programme in today's Spring Budget fails to fix the country's broken housing market – which is at its most acute in London.
But even the anticipated tinkering fell by the wayside. There was no real help for first-time buyers, no meaningful commitment to increase the supply of rental homes or homes for sale, and no stamp duty relief – much to the disappointment of all estate agents.
Housing was, once again, absent from the Conservative's fiscal strategy – despite record rents, a housebuilding rate that has fallen off a cliff, future generations who have no hope of owning their own home and a rising number of homeless families and children.
Another deeply disappointing Budget when it comes to housing
The Chancellor has been slammed by fellow politicians, property pundits and economists for failing to tackle the chronic supply crisis.
"The party so long considered the party of homeownership has ghosted homebuyers, aspiring homeowners, actual homeowners and the housing market at large," says Anthony Codling, analyst at RBC Capital Markets.
Labour MP of Greenwich Matthew Pennycook summed it up on X: "Another deeply disappointing Budget when it comes to housing. Nothing to reverse stalling housebuilding and falling supply. Nothing to tackle the affordability crisis. Nothing to help hard-pressed renters. Nothing to respond to homelessness."
The Chancellor's "ghosted" housing policies
Stamp duty relief as seen during the pandemic is a controversial and inflationary policy. It encourages a spike of sales, distorting house prices in high demand areas.
Although estate agents were crossing their fingers and toes for such a move it would have looked irresponsible in a high interest rate environment in which first-time buyers are already struggling to get on the ladder.
What was more surprising was the apparent dropping of the high loan-to-value mortgages (99pc) and mortgage guarantees for first-time buyers. This was heavily trailed before the budget (and in the 2019 manifesto) but is noticeable by its absence.
"Despite mortgages being one of the defining topics of 2024, there is not one mention of the word in the 98-page Spring Budget," says Rightmove's Matt Smith. "While the 99pc mortgage scheme was reportedly considered, it appears to have been scrapped and then no replacement found. More innovation is needed to help first-time buyers with smaller deposits."
Other missed opportunities include replacing the Help to Buy scheme which drove home sales and therefore housebuilding in the decade after the global financial crisis.
"Tinkering" is generous
Localised packages of regenerative and housing investment were promised for Liverpool, Blackpool and Sheffield, along with Barking Riverside and Canary Wharf, and Cambridge, among other scattered locations.
The two London destinations were promised 8,000 new homes. However, it appears that many of these homes are already in the pipeline for that part of the capital rather than additional supply. "It is hard to see how these policies are transformative or even make a difference," says Emily Williams at Savills.
"There was nothing appealing to the young voter by way of addressing their concerns about high rents," she went on.
The Chancellor announced a reduction in capital gains tax (from 28pc to 24pc) on the sale of second homes. "This is more likely to reduce rental stock further as those landlords on the brink of selling up will be encouraged to do so," says Michael Zucker, chartered surveyor at the estate agent Jeremy Leaf & Co.
The Conservatives scrapped Furnished Holiday Lettings regime – in which landlords of Airbnb-type properties were allowed to deduct the full cost of mortgageinterest payments from their rental income.
Although welcome in Britain's tourist traps again, with the existing disincentives to be a long-term landlord it is more likely to lead to a further exodus of the rental sector, suppressing stock levels.
The housing market needs a wholesale reform
"It has become clear in the last few years that penalising landlords does not work to promote a functioning private rented sector. This is another opportunity to support the rental sector for the benefit of both tenants and landlords," says Christian Balslow of Rightmove.
But the property industry remains hopeful as ever.
"This wasn't a vote-losing budget but it wasn't a vote-winning budget either. The housing market needs wholesale reform by a Government who think they are going to be in for the long haul. It makes me think we will have a winter election as they need to get another fiscal event in," says Jennet Siebrits, UK Head of Research at CBRE.
