Commanders vs. Lions Expert Picks, Player Props, & Best Bets looks at the best bets as the Lions look to make NFL history.
The Detroit Lions, chasing their first-ever Super Bowl appearance, begin their playoff journey Saturday night in a Divisional Round clash against the Washington Commanders. Washington arrives on a high after a dramatic 23-20 Wild Card victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, capped by a last-second field goal. The Lions, meanwhile, enjoyed the NFC’s only bye week, thanks to their stellar 15-2 season.
The Commanders (12-5), who finished second in the NFC East, are riding a five-game winning streak and have proven resilient on the road, boasting a 5-3 record. The Lions, back-to-back NFC North champions, are 7-2 at home this season, making Ford Field a formidable venue.
Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET in Detroit. The Lions, favored by 9.5 points, aim to justify their top-seed status against a surging Commanders squad.
NFL Divisional Round: Commanders vs. Lions Betting Preview
All Commanders vs. Lions odds are correct on BetOnline Sportsbook as of Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2025.
-
Spread
Lions -9.5 -
Moneyline
Commanders +410, Lions -500 -
Over/Under
55.5 points -
Game time
8:00 p.m. ET -
Location
Ford Field | Detroit, MI -
Predicted Weather at Kick
DOME -
How To Watch
Fox
Here are our best bets for the Chiefs vs. Texans:
- Commanders +9.5
- Terry McLaurin | WR | Commanders | OVER 23.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115)
Commanders vs. Lions Prediction: Commanders +9.5
In the heart of January football, Ford Field sets the stage for an intriguing battle between the top-seeded Detroit Lions and the surging Washington Commanders. On paper, Detroit’s high-octane offense seems poised to dominate. Ranked third in EPA per play and first in both success rate and points per drive, the Lions have methodically dismantled opponents all season. Washington’s defense, though inconsistent, sits at league average (16th in EPA per play), leaving a sliver of hope for the Commanders to slow down Jared Goff and company.
Washington’s resilience was on full display in Tampa Bay last week, where their defense contained a top-five offense en route to a thrilling 23-20 upset. That effort, combined with a game plan built on aggressive fourth-down decisions, could tilt the scales just enough to keep Detroit’s potent offense off the field. A possession battle fueled by timely conversions and clock management would be Washington’s blueprint for an upset.
Defensively, Detroit has vulnerabilities, particularly in its injury-plagued secondary. That opens the door for Washington’s Jayden Daniels, who enters the game with a stunning 98.1 QBR against the blitz over the past six weeks. Daniels’ ability to exploit man coverage could spell trouble for a Lions unit that plays more man schemes than any team in the league. With Terry McLaurin capable of creating mismatches, big plays for Washington aren’t out of the question.
Historically, Divisional Round home favorites off a bye—like Detroit—have struggled, covering just 42% of the time since 2003. While the trends might favor Washington to keep it close, the Lions’ rested roster and balanced attack give them the edge to pull out the win. I expect Jared Goff and this explosive offense to prevail in a high-scoring affair, but I like the Commanders to keep it inside the number.
Best Player Prop Bet: Terry McLaurin | OVER 23.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115)
If the Commanders hope to stay competitive on Saturday, their offensive strategy must revolve around their No. 1 receiver, Terry McLaurin. With a reliable quarterback finally delivering him the ball, McLaurin’s impact has been evident all season. He has consistently produced big plays, surpassing this yardage line in eight games and recording a 35-yard reception during the Wild Card round.
The Lions’ secondary presents an ideal matchup for McLaurin, as it has been their Achilles’ heel all year. Detroit’s defense has allowed the most yards per game to opposing wide receivers and ranks second in the league for giving up 20+ yard receptions, surrendering an average of 2.76 per game. With the stakes as high as they’ve been all season, McLaurin is poised to exploit this vulnerable unit once again. Expect another standout performance from Washington’s top weapon in a game where every play matters.
We're still not over this Terry McLaurin catch. pic.twitter.com/hZJosjn4qD
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) January 13, 2025
