Just like that, the Indianapolis Colts find themselves in the thick of the AFC South divisional race and will have the opportunity to gain a share of the division lead in their Week 8 matchup with Houston.
Following this past Sunday’s win over the Miami Dolphins–Indianapolis’ second in a row–the Colts are now 4-3 on the season. Houston, meanwhile, suffered their second loss of the year, falling to 5-2.
At one point through five games, the Texans were sitting at 4-1 and the Colts were just 2-3.
This game on it’s own is an important matchup because it’s within the division. Add in that Indianapolis can gain a share of the division lead at 5-3 with a win and the significance of this game becomes more magnified.
However, there’s even more to it beyond what we just mentioned. Looking down the road at potential tie-break scenarios that could come into play, a loss for the Colts this Sunday gives the Texans a fairly big advantage over Indianapolis.
There’s the obvious in that Houston would improve to 6-2 and the Colts would fall to 4-4–putting them two games back. But in addition to that, the Texans would also hold the tie-breaker over the Colts having already beaten them earlier in the season.
In terms of each team’s overall divisional record, a win for the Texans would put them at 3-0 in the AFC South while the Colts would sit at 1-3.
So in terms of having the opportunity to win the division, not only would the Colts have to overcome being two games back if they lose on Sunday, but because the Texans will hold the tie-breaker, the Colts have to outright have a better record than Houston at the end of the year to win the AFC South.
With there still being nine games to play after this Week 8 matchup, that isn’t to say that deficit would be impossible to overcome, but it would be difficult.
On the flip side, a win for the Colts and they’ll be at 5-3 on the year just like Houston. The teams will have split their season series, along with Indianapolis being 2-2 in the division and the Texans 2-1.
Given that it is still only Week 8, perhaps ‘must-win’ is a bit strong, but a win on Sunday for the Colts is really, really important.
