The Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1) are coming out of their bye week and will open the first set of Saturday games of the NFL schedule with a matchup against the Minnesota Vikings (10-3).
Indy is 2-4-1 on the road this season and will be facing a good home team in Minnesota, who are 6-1 at U.S. Bank Stadium. This will be a highly motivated team the Colts are going against. After failing to clinch the NFC North last week versus the Detroit Lions, the Vikings will be looking to lock their playoff spot in front of their own fans on Sunday.
Jeff Saturday stated that “It won’t be about next-year evaluation, it will be about what gives us the best chance to win in these final four,” but in reality, that is what it is for Indianapolis.
The final stretch of the year will be about the younger players showing development and for veterans to prove they are worthy of a roster spot for 2023—with the Colts or somewhere else across the league.
Here are my five things to watch for this Saturday afternoon:
Defending Justin Jefferson
Justin Jefferson is having a phenomenal Year 3 and is in the race to finish the season as the Offensive Player of the Year. He leads the NFL with 1,500 receiving yards and his 99 receptions are the second most. Tyreek Hill is currently leading with 100 receptions. Jefferson accounts for 34.2% of the Vikings’ total yards.
He not only helps keep drives alive for his offense but he can also flip the field in a jiffy. He has 25 big plays (20+ receiving yards) this season. Jefferson is coming off his best game. Last week against the Lions he finished with 11 receptions for 223 yards on 15 targets. He could’ve finished with more if the ref doesn’t blow this play dead.
You tell me if Justin Jefferson stepped out here because………….. pic.twitter.com/D4CeCvxMZL
— Alec Lewis (@alec_lewis) December 12, 2022
Jefferson has gone over 100 receiving yards in eight of his 14 games and went over the 150 mark in four games. I am looking forward to when we get to see Jefferson lined up against Stephon Gilmore. Can the cerebral veteran get the best of him? The Indy secondary will have their hands full with the star receiver.
What will the passing attack bring?
Despite some thinking that Jeff Saturday would make a change at the quarterback position after the bye week, he confirmed on Monday that Matt Ryan will still be the starter going forward. These last four games could be the final time we see Ryan in the NFL field if he chose to retire after this season. So how will it end for him?
The Colts’ passing attack once again has an opportunity to find some success against a weak pass defense, but can they take advantage of it? They had a similar chance against the Pittsburgh Steelers a few weeks ago and they could find any consistency in that matchup.
The Vikings are giving up 287.2 passing YPG, which is the most allowed in the league. They are allowing explosive plays through the air often which is why they have been giving up so many passing yards this season.
Vikings defense against 10+ yard throws:
– 101 receptions allowed (t-most)
– 2,108 yards allowed (t-most)
– 74 explosive receptions allowed (2nd-most)— Brad Spielberger, Esq. (@PFF_Brad) December 12, 2022
This is an area of the game that Ryan and the passing attack have struggled with this season. This should set up a great game for Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, and Parris Campbell. It will be two months this Saturday since Indianapolis has had a player go over 100 receiving yards in a game. Will one of the three break that mark on Saturday?
The expectations are low for the Indy passing attack but if there was a time that it could shine it would be against the Minnesota defense this weekend.
Getting pressure on Kirk Cousins
One thing that can help out disrupt Justin Jefferson from taking over this matchup is getting pressure early and often on Kirk Cousins. It’s no secret that defenses understand getting Cousins uncomfortable in the pocket can help lead to forcing turnovers and from their offense moving the chains at a consistent rate.
The Vikings’ offense runs through their passing attack. They are averaging 246.4 passing YPG, which is the eighth most in the NFL. Despite the production through the air, this hasn’t been the best season for Cousins. His 65.5% completion percentage is the lowest for him since the 2017 season. As well as his 91.2 passer rating.
Cousins currently has nine interceptions this season. Yes, it is a 17-game schedule, but he is on pace to have the most interceptions in his career. Depending on how the last four games fare, he might have the lowest passing touchdown mark since he joined the Minnesota franchise.
With all that being said, Cousins is coming off the best game of the season in the loss to the Lions. He finished with 425 passing yards and two touchdowns. He was making some great throws when his team needed them. As I alluded to, the key to success for Gus Bradley’s unit is getting pressure on Cousins often.
The Vikings have given up 34 sacks this year, which is tied for the seventh most allowed in the NFL. The Colts need Kwity Paye and Yannick Ngakoue to take over this matchup early otherwise this Vikings offense can get hot and they could find themselves in another hole to climb out of in the second half of this game.
Development for the offensive line
If there could be one thing that could help bring some promise for the 2023 season for the Colts is their expensive offensive line finishing this year on a strong note. The first step is dominating in the trenches and start opening up rushing lanes for Jonathan Taylor. In the loss to the Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis was only able to average 3.5 YPC.
The Vikings are giving up 116.5 rushing YPG, which is a smack dab in the middle among all 32 NFL teams. Since we already know we can’t count on the passing attack taking advantage of their matchup, it would help if Taylor and the offensive line can take over early and put the offense in favorable third-down situations.
But as it has been for Indianapolis this season, the ideal situation is unlikely going to happen and they will need Matt Ryan and the passing attack to do their part to find a way to win on Saturday. Which means that they will need the pass protection to hold up.
It won’t be an easy task facing a veteran pass rush tandem in Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith. Both account for over 50% of the Vikings’ sack production this season. Hunter has seven and Smith has nine and a half. But as a team, Minnesota has 30 sacks this season. That is the 11th-lowest mark in the league.
This is a nice test to see where Bernhard Raimann is at in his development. He’s coming off his best performance of his rookie year against Dallas and now has the next four games to show he should be the left tackle entering the 2023 season for the Colts. The same goes for Will Fries and his future at the right guard spot.
It won’t be perfect but if the offensive line can start showing some symmetry and start protecting the quarterback at a consistent rate then it should bode well for the following year.
Still can't sleep on Dalvin Cook
Even though the Vikings’ offense runs through Justin Jefferson and the rest of the passing attack, defenses still have to respect what Dalvin Cook brings despite the lack of production on the ground for their offense this season. As a team, they are only averaging 95.6 rushing YPG, which is the sixth lowest in the NFL.
As far as for Cook, he is averaging 73.1 rushing YPG, which would be the second-lowest mark of his career. His 13.1 receiving YPG is currently the lowest mark of his six-year career. Despite the lower game average, Cook is averaging 4.5 YPC and has nine total touchdowns this season.
He still has his breakaway speed and he showcased that in their win over the Buffalo Bills earlier this season. He had a career-long run of 81 yards to the house for a score.
.@DalvinCook goes 81 YARDS!!!
📺: #MINvsBUF on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/uRjde5F169 pic.twitter.com/tgrxWAvaHz— NFL (@NFL) November 13, 2022
Gus Bradley not only has to make sure Jefferson doesn’t take this game over but he has to make sure his defense keeps Cook bottled up and not slipping through the cracks to create explosive plays.
