The Indianapolis Colts are riding a three-game winning streak as they are preparing to face their divisional rivals Tennessee Titans in Nashville on Sunday.
This will be the second meeting of the season with the Colts winning the first matchup at home. There will be different starting quarterbacks this time around. It was the previous meeting when Anthony Richardson suffered his season-ending injury which led to Gardner Minshew finishing that contest and taking over as the starter for 2023.
For Tennessee, they have made the switch to rookie Will Levis following a breakout performance when he replaced Ryan Tannehill who missed some time with an injury. Indy ended their five-game losing streak to the Titans but now they will be looking to get their first win in Nashville for the first time since Nov. 12, 2020. The Colts also have an opportunity to sweep Tennessee for the first time since 2018.
This will be another hard-fought battle between these franchises and will likely come down to the fourth quarter. Here are five things to watch for when they clash on Sunday:
1
Zack Moss as RB1 again
The Colts got hit with unfortunate news this week with Jonathan Taylor having to undergo thumb surgery that will put him out for at least this game but Jim Irsay mentioned that he will likely miss the next two to three weeks. The good news is that the offense has a back in Zack Moss who has the 10th most rushing yards in the NFL despite taking a step back in Taylor’s return.
When these teams faced earlier this season, Moss had the best game of his career. He ran the ball 23 times for 165 yards and two touchdowns. Including the first touchdown of that matchup when he scampered for a 56-yard score on a perfectly executed play by the offensive line.
The #Colts couldn't ask for better execution from their offensive line on this play. Perfectly blocked and capped off by Quenton Nelson & Braden Smith getting some pancakes.
Zack Moss takes it untouched for a 56-yard TD. pic.twitter.com/ngAdlvr5dK
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 9, 2023
Moss also picked up 30 yards on two receptions. The Titans’ rush defense has taken a step back from where they were heading into that contest. Entering Week 5, they had the fourth-best rush defense in the NFL, allowing just 70.0 rushing YPG.
At this point of the season, they’re allowing 110.8 rushing YPG, which ranks 15th in the league. If the offensive line can dominate the trenches again and Moss gets hot, then they should be in a position to close it out in the fourth quarter.
2
First look at Will Levis
Will Levis lit the NFL on fire in his first career start when he threw for 238 yards and four touchdowns in a win over the Atlanta Falcons. He topped his yardage with 262 yards the following week versus the Pittsburgh Steelers but hasn’t topped 200 passing yards in his last three games.
He also has only thrown two touchdowns since the Falcons game and both of those came in a 34-14 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. In five games, Levis is averaging 208.4 passing YPG while throwing for six touchdowns and two interceptions.
It was just earlier this year when Levis was one of the quarterbacks who was linked to the Colts heading into the NFL draft. He thought there was a chance that was where he would land in April.
“I thought there was a shot I would be going [to Indianapolis],” Levis told reporters Wednesday. “Kind of right up until that draft day, both Anthony [Richardson] and I were like, ‘Who’s it going to be? We don’t know.’
While Levis isn’t showing any animosity, you would think he has a chip on his shoulder to give it to the franchise that passed him over in the draft.
For the Colts’ defense, they need to respect his cannon of an arm and not allow him to hit explosive plays through the air. Constant pressure and confusing him with coverages can lead to a down day for the rookie quarterback.
3
Repeat success against Derrick Henry
Entering the Week 5 matchup, Derrick Henry had 100+ rushing yards in six of the previous eight meetings but it was a different story in the last matchup. Henry averaged 3.3 YPC on 13 attempts and the Colts held the Titans offense to 89 rushing yards.
The biggest play the Indy defense had on Henry was when they stuffed him on a fourth down in the fourth quarter which led to the victory.
The biggest play of the game for the #Colts defense. Indy's two best defensive players stepped up when it mattered.
DeForest Buckner sheds his block to get his hands on Derrick Henry and Zaire Franklin flies up the field to clean it up to force the turnover on downs. pic.twitter.com/fwxeeylx7w
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 10, 2023
It should be noted that Grover Stewart played in that game so I am sure the Titans will look to take advantage of that like teams have over the last five games for Indianapolis.
2023 has been a down-season for Henry. He’s averaging 67.2 rushing YPG, which is the lowest he’s had since he averaged 66.2 rushing YPG in 2018. His 4.2 YPC is on pace to tie his career-low, which came in 2017.
He has only three games this year where he’s finished over 95 rushing yards. The Tennessee offensive line has struggled and is a big part of why Henry isn’t creating those explosive plays as he did in the past.
Despite Henry not having an on-par season, the Colts can’t afford to believe he has lost a step. The Titans will attempt to hammer away with him because of Stewart’s absence and if it proves successful then they will make life easy on Will Levis and work to wear down the Indy defense by the fourth quarter.
4
Limit DeAndre Hopkins
The DeAndre Hopkins experience with the Titans hasn’t been the perfect marriage they hoped for. He’s averaging 63.5 receiving YPG and has four touchdowns. He only has two games where he finished over 65 receiving yards, which both topped the 100-yard mark.
One of those games came against the Colts and was his best performance as a Titan. In the Week 5 matchup, Hopkins finished with eight receptions for 140 yards on 11 targets.
The bad news for the Indy defense is that JuJu Brents is trending to miss his fifth game in a row but the good news has been the emergence of seventh-round rookie Jaylon Jones.
Per Next Gen Stats, Jones has allowed the lowest completion percentage over expected (-12.6%) of any rookie CB in a season in the NGS era (min. 35 targets) and has allowed just 0.9 yards per coverage snap this season. Fifth-fewest among all cornerbacks (min. 150 coverage snaps).
Colts seventh-round rookie CB Jaylon Jones has excelled in coverage since making his NFL debut in Week 4 this season.
Jones has allowed the lowest completion percentage over expected (-12.6%) of any rookie CB in a season in the NGS era (min. 35 targets).#ForTheShoe pic.twitter.com/s5NOJnmKzz
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 29, 2023
Hopkins was a chain mover in the previous contest so it is up to Jones and the rest of the secondary to keep the ball out of his hands this time around.
5
Defensive front getting pressure
One way to disrupt a rookie quarterback’s day is to put constant pressure on him throughout the game. This should be something that the Indy defensive front should be able to do. Especially with this being a strength-on-weakness matchup.
The Titans have given up 36 sacks this season, which is the fifth-most in the NFL. While the Colts are tied for the fifth-most sacks in the league. In the previous contest, Indianapolis finished with eight QB hits and one sack.
The pressure was there but they have to get home more this go around. Last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was an example of what they need this Sunday.
Especially on plays like this when DeForest Buckner drew the double team.
This is exactly what the #Colts need out of the defensive front from a 4-man rush when DeForest Buckner draws the double team.
Samson Ebukam, Tyquan Lewis, & Dayo Odeyingbo collapse the pocket and Ebukam gets the sack to force the three-and-out. pic.twitter.com/xlFutpv5uv
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 28, 2023
One player to keep an eye on who has impressed the past two weeks is Tyquan Lewis. He was involved in a pair of sacks against the Bucs.
I'm happy to see Tyquan Lewis playing like he has over the past few weeks. An all-out effort to get a first-down sack with a 3-man rush.
Derailed a Tampa drive where they were getting into scoring range. Ends up punting. pic.twitter.com/ZGsPhA3qRq
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 28, 2023
Two crucial sacks for the #Colts defense.
1st-and-goal: Dayo Odeyingbo works his way inside Tristan Wirfs & Tyquan Lewis bulldozes his way to meet up at the QB.
3rd-and-goal: DeForest Buckner gets the pressure to push Baker Mayfield up the pocket & Kwity Paye cleans it up. pic.twitter.com/co0WNM90is
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 28, 2023
After suffering season-ending injuries the past two seasons, the veteran defensive lineman looks like himself in 2023.
Between bottling up Derrick Henry and frustrating Will Levis, the Indy defensive front can make a strong impact on the outcome of this matchup.
