The Indianapolis Colts are heading into Week 7 coming off a rough divisional loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. They will be hosting the Cleveland Browns, a franchise they haven’t faced since 2020.
Indy is 8-2 against Cleveland since 2002 and the last time the Browns won in Lucas Oil Stadium came in 2011. This contest could end up having playoff implications in a crowded AFC playoff picture come the end of the year.
Here are five things to watch for when the two teams hit the field on Sunday afternoon:
1
Can Gardner Minshew bounce back?
Then just a couple of days later, the rookie season of franchise quarterback Anthony Richardson officially came to an end after the team announced he would be undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery.
This is now Minshew’s team and they are going to need him to play like he did in the first five weeks compared to his Week 6 performance. He doesn’t draw an easy task to get his and the offense’s season back on track with one of the best defenses in the NFL coming to town.
In terms of pass defense, the Browns are only allowing 121.4 passing YPG, which is easily the best mark across the NFL. The next closest team is the Baltimore Ravens who are allowing 163.2 passing YPG. A defense that Minshew threw for 227 yards against in an overtime win.
The most passing yards by a quarterback against Cleveland came from Kenny Pickett. He threw for 222 yards in a 26-22 win for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Lamar Jackson likely could’ve thrown for more than that but he had 186 yards on only 19 attempts in a 28-3 blowout win.
It’s probably a safe bet that Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz will take a similar gameplan approach that the Jags had against Minshew. Jacksonville didn’t allow the Colts to get the ground game going and dared the quarterback to beat him with his arm.
Jaguars were trotting out their Base defensive personnel even when the the Colts were in 11 personnel with 3 WRs.
Colts tried to run against it 5 times and gained a grand total of 9 yards. https://t.co/tsYuO1rqpS
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 16, 2023
If Shane Steichen is going to get the ground game going against the Browns then he needs Minshew to be more effective on his 10+ yard pass attempts. In the matchup with the Jags, he was 7-of-20 on those attempts and his three interceptions came on those shots as well.
Gardner Minshew's passing chart. He completed 7 of 20 attempts on throws over 10 yards. All 3 interceptions came on those attempts as well.
10-19 yard pass attempts: 5/13 (2 INT)
20+ yard pass attempts: 2/7 (1 INT) pic.twitter.com/HnexP6ga3H— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 15, 2023
The Colts can’t afford another performance like that out of Minshew. If he can’t be more efficient down the field and can’t protect the ball then this could be another long afternoon for the Indy offense.
2
Filling Grover Stewart's void
The bad news for Indianapolis didn’t stop with Anthony Richardson. Not too long after hearing the franchise quarterback’s year was done, it was announced that Grover Stewart was being suspended for six games because of PED violations.
Stewart has been a staple for the Colts defense. He started 69 games in a row, proving to be one of the most durable and dependable defensive tackles in the NFL. His presence against the rushing attack will be deeply missed and it will take a group effort to replace his production over the next six games.
Based on the unofficial depth chart, the team has Taven Bryan listed as the starter in place for Stewart. Bryan is more of a pass-rusher and can struggle against the run so it will be curious how Gus Bradley handles the rotation in the interior of his defensive line.
I expect Eric Johnson to get some work at nose tackle as well but I also wouldn’t be surprised if DeForest Buckner gets some play at that position while Bryan and others get some work at 3-tech.
One player who can take advantage of this opportunity is rookie Adetomiwa Adebawore. He’s only appeared in two games this season and has played just 11% of the defensive snaps. Chris Ballard mentioned after he selected him that they viewed him as a three-technique so he’s one of the players that could line up there and they could slide Buckner over as the nose tackle.
Bradley also has his versatile pieces in Dayo Odeyingbo and Tyquan Lewis that can help fill the void from Stewart. This will be a tough task for the defensive front going against an offense that averages 147.0 rushing YPG, which is the fourth best in the league.
If the interior defensive lineman can step up in Stewart’s absence then they can force a hampered Deshaun Watson or P.J. Walker (if Watson is inactive) to beat their defense with his arm.
3
Time to unleash Jonathan Taylor
Shane Steichen can’t put all the pressure on Gardner Minshew to not only win this game but come out with victories throughout the rest of the season. He is going to need his playmaker Jonathan Taylor to be more of a bigger piece in his gameplan to help elevate his offense.
After slowly working Taylor in his first two games back with the team, it is time for the star player to get back to his normal workload. It’s been a minimal impact from Taylor in his return but he did flash that explosive playmaking ability against Jacksonville.
On a designed play to get the ball in his hands on a third down, Taylor took off in open space for a 40-yard gain.
Not many linebackers are going to be able to keep up with Jonathan Taylor having a running start but Josh Downs also ran his route perfectly so the defenders ran into each other to avoid getting called for a pick. pic.twitter.com/8DFcVcnS8V
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 16, 2023
That play made him the fastest ball carrier in the game.
Jonathan Taylor was the fastest ball carrier of the game pic.twitter.com/MEVIlq1Uuj
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 15, 2023
Taylor and the rushing attack draw another tough task against one of the better rush defenses in the league. The Browns are allowing 79.0 rushing YPG, which is the fourth-best in the NFL.
While I would like to see more rushing attempts for Taylor, I also want to see more creative ways to get him the ball through the air like he did on that play last week.
After getting 20 touches over the last two weeks, Taylor should get close to that mark in this contest if the Colts want to leave with a victory. It will take a classic Taylor performance for this offense to punch the vaunted Browns defense in the mouth.
4
Limiting Amari Cooper's impact
Regardless of who is at quarterback for the Browns, it is apparent that the Colts’ defense does its best to take away the biggest threat in their passing attack. Amari Cooper is their team’s leading receiver by a large margin.
Cooper has 367 receiving yards in five games and the next closest player is Elijah Moore with 167 receiving yards. Cooper has two games where he’s finished with seven receptions, and in three games he’s reached at least 90 receiving yards.
Cooper is known for his route running but it is promising that JuJu Brents is coming off a strong game in coverage on Calvin Ridley, another great route runner in the league.
Really nice rep here by JuJu Brents in coverage on Calvin Ridley. pic.twitter.com/uGZAFYL3cd
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 16, 2023
Another solid rep by JuJu Brents in coverage on Calvin Ridley pic.twitter.com/LzBWaVmvw2
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 16, 2023
JuJu Brents did a great job when he lined up against Calvin Ridley. The third solid rep in their battle, he gets physical at the top of the route but Brents avoided the penalty and gets the pass breakup. pic.twitter.com/BXCzQ9EBgb
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 16, 2023
Brents wasn’t lined up on Ridley on every snap but he played a big part in keeping Ridley underneath the league average of separation yards.
Calvin Ridley finished below the league average for separation yards. He had 4 receptions for 30 yards.
I find this notable because it felt like JuJu Brents was covering him for most of the game.
Outside of the TD that he gave up, Brents is looking comfortable in his role. pic.twitter.com/GMfs5ErzxW
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 15, 2023
If Brents can repeat his performance against Cooper then the Colts defense can force others in Cleveland’s passing attack to beat them.
5
Don't let Myles Garrett takeover
This game could get ugly quickly for the Colts offense if Myles Garrett comes out of the gates hot. As one of the best edge rushers in the game, Garrett can easily influence a matchup with his ability to rush the quarterback and defend the run.
Through five games, he has 13 tackles (nine solo), five TFLs, 5.5 sacks, 14 QB hits, and a forced fumble. He got 3.5 sacks and five QB hits in their 27-3 win over the Tennessee Titans. An example of how Garrett can impact a game.
His QB hits number is also notable because the most he has in a season is 33 and is currently on pace for 47 in 2023. This will be a big test for second-year tackle Bernhard Raimann and rookie Blake Freeland, who will get the spot start in place of the injured Braden Smith.
The Indy left tackle is one of the top-performing tackles from his draft class in terms of pressure rate allowed.
Pressure rate allowed for second-year OTs through Week 6 (via PFF)
1. Luke Goedeke (4%)
2. Bernhard Raimann (5%)
3. Ickey Ekwonu (5%)4. Rasheed Walker (6%)
5. Zach Tom (7%)
6. Joshua Ezeudu (7%)
7. Trevor Penning (8%)8. Evan Neal (11%)
9. Vederian Lowe (15%)
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) October 16, 2023
Raimann will have his hands full with Garrett. The leader of the Cleveland defense had some very impressive reps against the best left tackle in the NFL Trent Williams last week.
nice play by several Browns defenders. But watch Myles Garrett exploding across and dipping under Trent Williams. Crazy stuff. pic.twitter.com/2BJPEiswLX
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 18, 2023
Garrett might be one of the few who can toss Williams to the side like this.
Seeing Myles Garrett toss Trent Williams aside just doesn’t sit right with me lol #DawgPound #NFL pic.twitter.com/Wk3gsVkZj0
— Full-Time Dame 💰 (@DP_NFL) October 16, 2023
There will be moments when Garrett will be getting after Gardner Minshew but if Raimann and the rest of the line can keep him in check to give their quarterback time to work with, then that can help the passing attack get into a rhythm this week.
