In March, the stage always belongs to belief.
And on a Friday afternoon in Seattle, the script writes itself.
Memphis and Colorado State meet not as just a 5 vs. 12 matchup but as two teams arriving from different paths, converging at the same moment. One team playing with expectation, the other with momentum.
For Penny Hardaway’s Memphis Tigers, the résumé is undeniable. Twenty-nine wins. An American Athletic Conference title. Their most successful regular season under Hardaway’s watch. The Tigers move at pace — 28th nationally in tempo — and they’ve earned every bit of their standing. They draw fouls, they shoot with purpose, and for the first time in years, they’ve done it without drama. That alone is progress.
Colorado State vs. Memphis Picks and Best Bets
All Colorado State vs. Memphis odds are from BetOnline and are correct as of Friday, Mar. 21.
-
Spread
Colorado State -1.5 -
Moneyline
Colorado State -120, Memphis EVEN -
Over/Under
146.5 -
Game Time
2:00 p.m. ET -
Location
Climate Pledge Arena | Seattle, WA -
How To Watch
TBS
How Will Memphis Respond Without Hunter?
But a question hovers over them in Seattle: how much does Tyrese Hunter’s absence change the equation?
Hunter, the floor general, suffered a foot injury during the conference tournament. As of now, his status remains uncertain. For Memphis, it’s a void. And in March, voids can grow large. They can swallow even the strongest of seasons whole.
It’s March. It’s time to HOOP 😤 pic.twitter.com/03Cko6TDha
— Memphis Basketball (@Memphis_MBB) March 21, 2025
In his place, sophomore PJ Haggerty will be asked to carry more. He’s done it all season. A 21.8-point scorer. A player capable of breaking a defense down, a slasher who turns chaos into control. When he’s on, Memphis can go with anyone.
But the Tigers’ greatest vulnerability may be within. They’re 306th in turnover percentage and 300th in allowing offensive rebounds — flaws that haven’t gone unnoticed.
The Rams Are Surging
And then there’s Colorado State.
They are the storm gathering just beneath the surface. A 10-game win streak. A Mountain West Tournament title. A team that’s found its identity at the exact right time. Over the past five weeks, by almost every advanced metric, they’ve been one of the ten best teams in the country.
At the center of it all is Nique Clifford, the 6-foot-6 senior guard who does everything — scores, rebounds, facilitates. A projected first-round NBA Draft pick, Clifford has been the heart of the Rams’ late-season run. In his last five games, he’s averaged nearly 29 points and torched defenses with 58.5% shooting from three.
Looking forward to the 𝗖𝗛𝗔𝗟𝗟𝗘𝗡𝗚𝗘. #TeamTogether x @AlpineGardens pic.twitter.com/gV9vDDHdxF
— Colorado State Men’s Basketball (@CSUMBasketball) March 21, 2025
Colorado State isn’t big, but they move. They share. They shoot. And they make opponents uncomfortable. Coach Niko Medved has built a team that ranks 8th nationally in assist rate yet forces teams into 27.3% three-point shooting during this stretch — a remarkable number.
They’ll enter as the 12-seed. But look closer, and you’ll see the line has shifted in their favor.
Vegas knows. This is no ordinary underdog.
Best Bets: Colorado State -1.5 | Over 146.5
Memphis has talent. Colorado State has rhythm. The Tigers want to push, but the Rams are comfortable in the chaos. The altitude in Seattle won’t decide the game, but the contrast in styles just might. Memphis plays above the rim. Colorado State plays between the ears.
So who wins?
Perhaps the answer lies not in numbers or matchups but in moments. In the tension of a late possession. In the nerves that creep in when a season teeters. I’m going to stick with the hot team and ride the Rams. I also like the over in this one, as Memphis will push the pace, but Colorado State will be comfortable with that.
It’s March—the time of belief.
And in this corner of the bracket, it feels like Colorado State believes more.
