Colombia’s presidential election appears headed to a runoff as front-runner Gustavo Petro is well short of the 50% needed to win in a first round.
With about 54% of votes counted, Petro, a leftist former guerrilla and mayor of Bogota, has 41%. Outsider business magnate Rodolfo Hernandez who campaigned on an anti-graft platform is second with 28% while conservative politician Federico Gutierrez has 24%.
A runoff would be held on June 19 with the winner taking office on Aug. 7.
Polls closed at 4 p.m. local time. Voting was not obligatory but a stronger turnout may have benefited Petro who is popular among younger Colombians. A holiday Monday may have impacted participation numbers.
Despite a strong economic rebound from the pandemic and a boost from sky high oil prices, polls in recent days have shown that increasing numbers of Colombians want change from the current economic model and the traditional parties that have led the country for decades.
While Colombia’s economy has rebounded strongly, the pandemic aggravated deep inequalities in the South American country and voters are demanding change to address issues including inflation, unemployment and corruption.
Frontrunner Gustavo Petro, 62, has harnessed voter anger over poverty and inequality that was aggravated by the pandemic. The ex-guerrilla and former mayor of Bogota wants to tax the rich, halt oil exploration and restore ties with the socialist government of Venezuela.
While Brazil, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Argentina and Venezuela have all elected left-wing leaders at various times in their histories, Colombia has until now only ever been governed by conservatives and liberals.
Petro is widely expected to take first place but fall short of a majority. In that case, the focus will be on who would face him in the June 19 runoff.
“I believe in my people today, it’s time for confidence, co-existence and will for change,” Petro wrote in a hand written letter posted to his Twitter account. “It’s time to make our dreams into reality.”
Federico Gutierrez, a 47-year-old conservative former mayor of Medellin who defends the nation’s free-market model, has been Petro’s main rival during the campaign. He promises to be tough on crime, boost spending on infrastructure and invest in nursery education.
“May each vote serve to build a different country, without hunger, corruption and without violence but with progress to fight against poverty,” Gutierrez wrote on hits Twitter account.
But a late surge for Rodolfo Hernandez, a 77-year-old construction magnate who was mayor of a mid-sized city in the northeast, means he could potentially edge out Gutierrez. He’s rolled out a successful social media campaign including TikTok videos denouncing corruption to gain more national appeal.
Beyond his anti-graft comments, little is known about what Hernandez would do as president and he skipped the final debates after seeing his approval numbers rise.
Investors have little conviction as to the outcome, and markets won’t open fully until Tuesday due to a holiday in Colombia and the U.S. on Monday.
A long-time U.S. ally that’s received aid for years to combat drug trafficking, a shift in regional alliances to more left-leaning neighbors would be a challenge to U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration as it looks to curb the influence of China and Russia in the region.
Colombia’s oil-dependent economy is set to grow 5.8% this year, more than double the region-wide average of 2.5%, according to the International Monetary Fund. At the same time, inflation is running at a 21-year-high of 9.2% even as the government heavily subsidizes fuel prices.
“Colombia has always distinguished itself as being very conservative and orthodox in terms of its economic management,” said Patrick Esteruelas, head of research at Emso Asset Management. “But now it’s about to change policy course with destination unknown.”
