Sometimes there are games that defy people’s ability to comprehend spectacle. Week 8 has one such game. Oh, we’re not talking about Penn State vs. Ohio State. There is a much more important game on the Big Ten’s slate, with much more epic and potentially season defining proportions. We don’t always pick totals, but rules are made to be broken.
All lines courtesy of SI Sportsbook. Last week: Forde 3-1-1, Johnson 3-1-1. Season: Forde 19-17-2, Johnson 16-20-2.
Iowa vs. Minnesota total: 32.5
Johnson: Under. You will seldom, if ever, find a game not involving a service academy with a lower total than this. I mean seriously, it is astounding that in a sport that is skewing increasingly toward offense, these teams are able to come together for a projected combined score this low. It would be unsporting not to root for the car crash here. Give me carnage.
Forde: Give me the UNDER, baby. This feels like an 11-10 game with multiple safeties involved. If either team passes for 100 yards I'll be shocked.
Matthew O’Haren/USA TODAY Sports
Penn State vs. Ohio State (-4)
Johnson: Penn State. You know that scene in Remember the Titans when coach Yost tells the defense “YOU BLITZ ALL NIGHT.” Yeah, that’s what I imagine Manny Diaz is gonna tell his defense on Saturday morning before this game. Affect Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord and live with the fact that eventually Marvin Harrison Jr. will break out. Just hope you can limit the damage and keep this close.
Forde: Penn State. Simply put, the Nittany Lions are good enough to end their Long Buckeye Nightmare. They’re hellacious defensively (though some of the best-in-the-nation stats are due for a minor course correction after playing many bad offenses). They’re buttoned-up offensively, committing just three turnovers all season, including zero interceptions. And I do not think they’re scared of McCord—he was a notable omission when James Franklin did a brief overview of the Buckeyes at the beginning of his Tuesday press conference this week.
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Washington State vs. Oregon (-19.5)
Johnson: Washington State. Maybe I’m missing something, but I just don’t understand why Wazzu is this big of an underdog. The 44-6 loss to Arizona last weekend was a mess, but some of that had to do with turnovers against a Wildcats team that is decidedly frisky. Oregon’s good, but nearly three touchdowns? Not so sure about that.
Forde: Oregon. That is a really big number, but I'm going to roll with it for two reasons. One, the Ducks should come out breathing fire at home coming off a gut-busting loss, motivated to show the nation they're still a playoff-caliber team. Two, the helium is leaking from the Cougars’ balloon after that fast start to the season. That's enough.
Tennessee vs Alabama (-9)
Johnson: Alabama. The Tide rolls here and I’m really just taking the quarterback who I think is better. Joe Milton's made a lot of strides this season, but I’m going with Jalen Milroe here because I trust him to do enough against Tennessee’s defense.
Forde: Tennessee. I expect Alabama to win, but I expect it to be a low-scoring slog between two teams with good defenses and inconsistent quarterbacks. Something along the lines of the Crimson Tide's 19-14 win in Tuscaloosa over the Volunteers in 2015. Alabama needs to eke out some rushing yards, because it has failed to protect Milroe and Tennessee can get after the quarterback—the Tide has allowed the most sacks in the SEC (31) and the Vols have recorded the third-most sacks (24).
Clemson (-4) vs. Miami
Johnson: Clemson. There’s something a little strange about this Miami team, from the Georgia Tech farce and then last week’s dud against North Carolina. For all of the legitimate concerns about what this Clemson team is this season, the Tigers have a solid enough defense for me to take them in this spot.
Forde: Clemson. I don't have a surplus of faith in the Tigers' offense, but Miami's defense has struggled against the two best teams it has faced (Texas A&M and North Carolina). Meanwhile, the Clemson defense remains the best in the ACC and could produce some takeaways against a Miami team that has gotten sloppy with the ball lately (nine turnovers the past two games, both losses).
Duke vs. Florida State (-14)
Johnson: Florida State. This pick stands whether Riley Leonard plays or not. In fact, I’d probably take it at a higher number if Leonard plays and is less than 100 percent. At some point in time, I’m expecting Florida State to be up in the game. If Leonard is hampered movement-wise, will he be able to generate the splash plays that helped the Blue Devils beat Clemson with his legs? I’m not betting on it.
Forde: Florida State. This is another large number, but if Leonard is still out for the Blue Devils this becomes Mission: Impossible. Consider that backup Henry Belin completed all of four passes against North Carolina State and has never even played in a college road game, much less started one. Duke has overachieved, but FSU is explosive and on a mission.
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