We’ve made it to championship weekend. After a long season, it’s the final prize until the Playoff. Pat Forde retains his two-game lead after a week that resulted in a draw.
All lines courtesy of SI Sportsbook. Last week: Forde 3–2, Johnson 3-2. Season: Forde 38-29-2, Johnson 36-31-2.
Oregon (-9.5) vs. Washington (Friday)
Johnson: Oregon. The Ducks have flown in a different direction from the Huskies since the moment they played earlier this season. The only difference between the two on that October day in Seattle was who won out on a few high-leverage plays. I think Oregon has retooled and won’t have to convert a few fourth downs to get this one over the line.
Forde: Washington. I don't think the undefeated Huskies can be blown out, so that spread looks too big. However, there is no doubt that the Ducks have played better than Washington over the latter half of the season since losing that thriller in Seattle. If Dan Lanning can resist committing fourth-down malpractice—which cost Oregon its last two games against Washington—the Ducks should be headed to the playoff. Maybe the Huskies, too.
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Oklahoma State vs. Texas (-15)
Johnson: Texas. Oklahoma State has been a great story the back half of this season, but it’s certainly been getting away with it. The Horns bring two of the best defensive linemen in college football to this game. Rushing yards for even the great Ollie Gordon will be tough to come by, and the Horns will roll.
Forde: Texas. Mike Gundy brings some warlock powers to any game in which he’s an underdog, and this matchup certainly is the kind that brings out the best in The Mullet. But his defense has been among the worst in the Big 12 in league play. Texas has the weapons to exploit that, even after the injury to running back Jonathon Brooks. While the number is pretty big here, the Longhorns will be hunting for points to win potential playoff arguments.
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Georgia (-5.5) vs. Alabama
Johnson: Alabama. A mobile quarterback who can do anything and everything with the ball in his hands for the Tide has been the cause of anxiety after the last time these two teams met in the SEC title game. But this time, the Dawgs have their own QB capable of winning an offensive duel if it comes to that. UGA will get the job done, but Jalen Milroe will keep things close enough to cover.
Forde: Georgia. This game has so many elements of the 2021 SEC title meeting. Then and now, the Tide is wobbling in off a near-playoff-death experience against an underdog Auburn team, saved by dramatic quarterback play when all appeared lost. Then and now, Georgia is solidly favored not only in this game, but also to win the national championship. Then, the Tide shocked the Bulldogs behind an all-world performance by Bryce Young. Now, history will not repeat itself because Jalen Milroe is not Bryce Young, nor will he win the Heisman Trophy despite demanding “that MFer” after the Auburn win. Georgia ’23 is not as good as Georgia ’21, but neither is Alabama ’23 as good as Alabama ’21. Dawgs win and cover.
SMU vs. Tulane (-3.5)
Johnson: Tulane. SMU has played well this season, but there’s one unknown thing about them: They really never faced the true class of this conference—Tulane or UTSA. They finally get the best of the best the American has to offer in this game. Don’t expect Tulane and possible links between coach Willie Fritz and Houston to get in the way here. They’ll handle business and win another conference title.
Forde: Tulane. These teams have quality quarterbacks, but they’re also the top two defensive units in the conference. I know this: Picking against the Green Wave late in the year the past two seasons has been an invitation to be wrong, and that’s an invitation that needs to be declined in this instance.
Louisville (-2.5) vs. FSU
Johnson: Louisville. It’s unclear who will be playing quarterback in this game for the Noles, and that’s just too much of an unknown for me. It’s hard to say FSU is limping into this game undefeated, but the offensive performance with QB2 last week wasn’t very good. Who knows what it’ll be with QB3, if it comes to that.
Forde: Louisville. Much like Mike Gundy, Jeff Brohm loves a good upset opportunity. One presents itself here against a vulnerable Seminoles team. The Cardinals’ defense has softened up in recent weeks, surrendering more than six yards per play in the last three games, but it remains to be seen whether Tate Rodemaker can effectively move the Florida State offense. If the Louisville offense takes care of the ball, it should be able to move and score—the Cardinals are 10–0 when turning it over two or fewer times this season, 0–2 when committing three turnovers.
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