Rivalry Week is upon us, and the College Football Playoff race remains relatively wide open with one game remaining in the regular season.
Week 12 has historically been something of a calm before the storm, especially in the SEC, where most teams played either a Group of Five or FCS opponents. That proved to be the case this season, as well, though there were a few exceptions.
Washington and Oregon State played the game of the day as the Huskies kept their undefeated record intact with a two-point road win in a torrential downpour in Corvallis.
Otherwise, it was a mostly chalky week as we prepare for a pivotal Rivalry Week slate headlined by a top-three matchup between Ohio State and Michigan State in the Big House with a Big Ten East title and likely playoff spot on the line.
Before we get to what should be another classic in that series, here are the winners and losers from the penultimate week of the regular season.
Winner: Washington survives a gauntlet
It certainly has not always been pretty, but the Huskies are 11-0 and may have their best shot at a national title in three decades. Coach Kalen DeBoer’s team capped off a brutal three-game stretch that featured games against USC, Utah and Oregon State with Saturday’s 22-20 win in Corvallis, locking up a spot in the Pac-12 title game in the process.
It wasn’t the most prolific day for the offense or quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who has since been supplanted in Heisman odds by Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels but remains in the mix. The hellish weather can certainly excuse at least some of that, and it was impressive to see this team win a more defense-oriented, low-scoring game, especially against a Beavers team that’s more than solid on both sides of the ball.
Now, an Apple Cup matchup against a 5-6 Washington State team which has had quite a bit of struggles down the stretch this season is all that stands between Washington and a 12-0 regular season.
This team almost certainly controls its playoff destiny, though that will likely require winning a rematch against Oregon, and the Huskies have managed to avoid falling victim to the cannibalization that has cost the league a place in the postseason in recent years.
Loser: A devastating injury for Florida State's Jordan Travis
Unfortunately, the biggest CFP development on Saturday came in the form that you never want to see.
In the first quarter of Florida State’s eventual 58-13 win over North Alabama, star quarterback Jordan Travis suffered a gruesome leg injury that will end his season and FSU career.
It’s hard to put into words just how much Travis has meant to this Florida State program during its resurgence under Mike Norvell over the past two seasons. A transfer from Louisville and South Florida native, Travis considered a switch to receiver to see the field at what he has called his “dream school” and had to be convinced by Norvell and the new staff to remain at quarterback when they arrived in 2020.
Travis would ultimately split time with McKenzie Milton the following year before securing the job permanently in 2022 and never looking back. He led FSU to a 10-win season and had the team on the verge of its first playoff berth since 2014 this fall.
He’s the heart and soul of this program right now. His story has been one of the best in college football over the last two seasons, and it simply feels unfair for it to end this way.
While the selection committee can take injuries like this into account, it’s hard to imagine this team will be left out if it takes care of business against a Florida team without its own starting quarterback and a top-10 opponent in Louisville.
A playoff run with backup Tate Rodemaker, who played well on Saturday, could certainly still be in the cards. It’s just an absolute shame that Travis won’t be a part of it.
Winner: Chip Kelly (but not necessarily UCLA)
This season has certainly featured some ups and downs for Chip Kelly, and in many ways, it’s been a transition year as the program finds its footing without five-year starting quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
Still, this team has a shot at 8-4 ahead of the final game against California thanks to a convincing win over rival USC that was a cathartic one for Kelly.
For UCLA, though, it may only serve to complicate things.
Heading into the game, it was reported that Kelly was likely to be fired following the matchup against the Trojans. It seems that the report leaked with the expectation being a loss, because Kelly just may have saved his job on Saturday.
At the very least, it puts the school in an awkward situation, and it’s one that was entirely avoidable.
This isn’t about whether the Bruins should or shouldn’t fire Kelly — I personally think it would be a mistake, given the fact that this program has historically struggled for relevance in the Pac-12 and moves to the Big Ten next season — rather, it’s about completely mismanaging the situation.
If the initial report was accurate, winning one game shouldn’t decide whether Kelly stays. If the school wanted him gone, it should have made the move regardless. Instead, it gave him the chance to coach his way out, and here we are.
This could get interesting, so all I’ll say for now is this: Chip — don’t lose to Cal and give them an easy out.
Loser: Let's circle back on Colorado
If you haven’t noticed, Colorado discussion in this column has been largely absent since September, and there’s a good reason for that: The Buffs just aren’t particularly good or interesting at the moment.
I think it’s important to avoid hyperbole when talking about this team because so many — especially in sports media — have been shockingly prone to it. Colorado’s 3-0 start didn’t mean Deion Sanders had joined the ranks of Nick Saban and Kirby Smart in the top echelon of college coaching, and its 1-7 record since doesn’t mean this experiment has failed spectacularly.
But now that the Prime-fueled mania that surrounded this team earlier in the season has dissipated, I think it’s worth reflecting on the totality of what we’ve seen. Because while this team has improved (and also struggled) in many of the ways we expected, not everything about this 4-7 season has gone to script.
Friday night’s 56-14 loss to Washington State felt like the first sign that something may actually be wrong here. No one had embarrassed this team prior to that aside from Oregon, which is doing the same to just about everyone these days.
But the Cougars entered that game on a six-game losing streak that featured losses to Arizona State, Cal and Stanford, and they led the Buffaloes 42-7 at halftime. There are other indicators that something may be amiss, as well.
The demotion of offensive coordinator Sean Lewis was particularly alarming. Lewis is just about universally regarded as a brilliant offensive mind, and he will almost certainly land as a play-caller at a bigger program next season. That baffling midseason move, paired with surprisingly sub-par recruiting — the Buffaloes’ 2024 class currently features just nine commits and ranks 69th nationally, per the 247Sports Composite Rankings — has me questioning some of my assumptions about this hire.
This was never going to be the team to judge Sanders by, but he’ll enter 2024 with a lot more to prove than anyone really expected after the initial success this team found.
Quick Hitters - Winners
Miami (Ohio): There were some hot seat discussions surrounding Chuck Martin entering the year, which he has promptly silenced with a MAC East title that was clinched with a midweek win over Buffalo.
Louisville: The Cardinals also punched their ticket to the conference title game with a nice road win over Miami. This has been a marvelous first season for Jeff Brohm, and considering Louisville still has at least an outside shot at the CFP, it could get even better.
Northwestern coach David Braun: The Wildcats dropped the “interim” tag from Braun’s title last week, and in his first game as the full-time head coach, Northwestern clinched a bowl berth with a win over Purdue. It’s hard to overstate how impressive that is for a team that many thought may not even win an FBS game before the season.
Arizona: The Wildcats have gone from a fun story to follow to being an actual threat in the Pac-12 and New Year’s Six races. With a Territorial Cup win over Arizona State and an Oregon State upset over Oregon, the Wildcats will get a rematch against Washington in the conference championship.
Arkansas State: Seventy-seven. That’s how many points the Red Wolves dropped in a win over a good Texas State team that saw both teams combine for 108 points. Butch Jones has likely coached his way off the hot seat here.
Iowa: You’ve got to hand it to Kirk Ferentz, because this has been maybe his most Iowa team yet. The offense is practically non-existent, and moving on from his son/offensive coordinator hasn’t really made things any better, and yet this team is in a position to go 10-2 and has already earned the right to get annihilated by either Ohio State or Michigan in the Big Ten title game. I don’t know whether to congratulate or apologize to Hawkeyes fans for having to watch this same script play out every year.
Clemson: There was a brief moment where it felt like things may be falling off the rails in Clemson, but Dabo Swinney is still a good coach, and good coaches know when they need to put their heads down and get some wins. The Tigers have done just that, taking three in a row with a chance to end the year 8-4 against rival South Carolina. Not great, but not the disaster it looked like it could be, either.
Heisman Frontrunners: Nix and Daniels both absolutely showed out this week, with Nix totaling six touchdowns in a win over Arizona State while Daniels scored eight, tying Joe Burrow’s SEC single-game record as he played late into a blowout against Georgia State, presumably in an intentional move from coach Brian Kelly. Daniels has a slight edge statistically at the moment, but Nix will likely get an extra game and leads a playoff-contending team.
New Mexico State: This has already been a magical season for the Aggies. Why not add the biggest win in program history? As 25-point underdogs, NMSU waltzed into Jordan-Hare Stadium and issued a 31-10 beatdown against Auburn that was just as lopsided as that score looked. Coach Jerry Kill’s team has now beaten Hugh Freeze as a massive underdog in back-to-back seasons, and it will face his former team, Liberty, in the Conference USA Championship.
New Mexico: It was a good day in the Land of Enchantment. While it wasn’t quite as impressive as what its rival did Saturday, New Mexico earned an upset of its own against a very good Fresno State team. That may not be enough to save embattled coach Danny Gonzales, but it does mark some progress in Albuquerque.
Quick Hitters - Losers
Indiana: A buyout north of $20 million may save coach Tom Allen, but this team is hard to watch. It missed another opportunity to win a Big Ten game, falling to Michigan State and dropping to 3-8 on the season.
Coastal Carolina: This team may still represent the Sun Belt East in the conference title game thanks to James Madison’s postseason ineligibility, but it isn’t all that good as was evidenced in a seven-point loss to an Army squad that has been all over the place as it undergoes an identity shift this season.
James Madison: Speaking of the Dukes, things aren’t all that chipper for them, either. After picking up some great PR from College GameDay, it made the New Year’s Six discussion irrelevant with an overtime loss against division rival Appalachian State, which also has a chance to win the East.
Duke: It’s clear this team just isn’t the same without Riley Leonard, and it lost to a Virginia team that has been plucky down the stretch this season. Duke is 6-5, and Mike Elko is likely to be targeted by several schools in the coaching carousel this offseason, so the vibes in Durham could certainly be better.
USC: It’s not exactly surprising that defensive issues have held the Trojans back this season, but no one thought a 7-5 finish was in the cards for this team. The move to fire Alex Grinch came too late, and with Caleb Williams likely having played his last college game, Lincoln Riley missed the mark on his initial window and may feel some pressure in 2024.
Baylor: Dave Aranda is another coach who may be saved by a high buyout figure, but man, this team is bad. The Bears were embarrassed in Fort Worth by a TCU team that has taken a considerable step back this season, and that came a week after a 34-point loss to Kansas State. This team looks as lost as some of the Big 12 newcomers, and that’s a cause for concern in Aranda’s fourth season.
Auburn: Easily the most shocking result of the day came on the plains. New Mexico State is good, so I don’t want to take too much away from them, but that’s no excuse for losing the way Auburn did. It’s been an overall decent Year 1 for Freeze, but this is the kind of loss that takes quite a bit of success to make people forget.
Tennessee: In just a couple weeks, this has gone from looking like a solid bridge year in Knoxville to a disappointment, largely thanks to blowout losses from the division’s two best teams in Missouri and, most recently, Georgia. Joe Milton just hasn’t kept things rolling on offense this season, and Josh Heupel will enter next season with some question marks.
Syracuse coach Dino Babers: Babers was fired with one game left in his eighth season with the Orange following a 31-22 loss to Georgia Tech on Saturday. He was just 41-55 in central New York, and the last two seasons have featured hot starts followed by protracted losing streaks.
Florida: It’s hard to blame the Gators too much for a two-point loss on the road against a top-10 opponent, but this was a game Billy Napier absolutely could have won (and desperately needed to). Florida was plagued by operational issues late in the game, and it allowed a fourth and 17 conversion to Missouri on the final drive when it lost Luther Burden in the middle of the field. To make matters worse, quarterback Graham Mertz suffered a broken collarbone that will end his season.
Nebraska: The Cornhuskers’ quest for bowl eligibility continues after they squandered a second-half lead and ultimately lost in overtime to Wisconsin. Now, Nebraska must beat division champion Iowa to reach six wins. There hasn’t been a lot of note for Matt Rhule in Year 1, but locking up the program’s first bowl berth since 2016 would feel like a step in the right direction.
