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USA Today Sports Media Group

Sport

Michelle R. Martinelli

College Football Playoff watch: Why Ohio State currently has a better playoff chance than USC

USC Ohio State College Football Playoff (Organization) Football Utah (Organization) Michigan (Organization) Trojans ESPN Playoff Predictor

Surviving conference championship weekend is the only thing that stands between the top teams and the College Football Playoff with the top-4 teams being announced Sunday, December 4.

For The Win’s college football series, Before The Snap, broke down the paths to the playoff for the top-6 teams in the latest rankings, and it’s actually pretty simple. If the current top-4 teams all win their respective conference championship games, they should all be in — though Georgia and Michigan are basically playoff locks regardless.

However, the latest playoff rankings don’t quite line up with the teams with the best playoff chances, per ESPN’s Playoff Predictor algorithm. So it may come as a surprise to a lot of fans that, according to the formula, Ohio State — despite a bad loss to Michigan in Week 13 and not playing for a Big Ten title — currently has a better shot at making the playoff than USC, which faces off against Utah for the Pac-12 championship.

Perhaps we can shed a little light on why that may be.

So going into Week 14’s conference championship games, here’s a look at the top teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Wednesday. The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the FPI.

1. Georgia Bulldogs (12-0)

Playoff: 99.9 percent
National championship game: 67.1 percent
Win championship: 40.1 percent

2. Michigan Wolverines (12-0)

Playoff: 99.0 percent
National championship game: 55.1 percent
Win championship: 25.4 percent

With at least a 99 percent chance to make the playoff, Georgia and Michigan seem like locks no matter how their respective conference championship games play out. But they’re also both heavy favorites to win.

3. TCU Horned Frogs (12-0)

Playoff: 92.1 percent
National championship game: 27.8 percent
Win championship: 9.0 percent

4. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1)

Playoff: 71.5 percent
National championship game: 36.6 percent
Win championship: 19.3 percent

5. USC Trojans (11-1)

Playoff: 19.9 percent
National championship game: 4.6 percent
Win championship: 1.7 percent

Look, it was pretty surprising to us that Ohio State, 22-point loss to Michigan and all, not only has a better playoff chance than USC but also that there’s such a monumental difference between their chances. A 51.6 percent difference to be exact.

The Buckeyes are not playing in the Big Ten title game, so their playoff resume is set as an 11-1 team sitting second in the Big Ten East.

The Trojans take on No. 11 Utah in the Pac-12 championship game Friday, and a win should lock them into the playoff. However, the FPI and Playoff Predictor don’t suggest that will happen.

USC has a 38.3 percent chance to win out and win the conference championship. That number is so low likely in part because this game is a rematch of the Trojans’ 43-42 loss to Utah in the regular season, and the algorithm is taking that loss into account. Although USC is a slim 2.5-point favorite in the rematch, the FPI sets Utah’s chance of winning the Pac-12 at 61.7 percent.

If the Trojans emerge as a one-loss conference champ, they’ll likely make the playoff. But the numbers here are clearly against that scenario playing out, instead favoring a USC loss, which would open the door for Ohio State to sneak in.

What these projections can’t fully account for is the human element of revenge, along with Heisman Trophy frontrunner Caleb Williams and co. basically playing in must-win situations for the last several weeks to keep their playoff hopes alive. To keep that dream going, USC’s defense will have to put up a tougher fight against Utah star quarterback Cameron Rising — who accounted for five total touchdowns against the Trojans, including the October game-winner — or let this rematch turn into a high-scoring thriller with teams trading touchdowns until the clock hits zero.