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USA Today Sports Media Group

Sport

Michelle R. Martinelli

College Football Playoff watch: Oklahoma’s chances surged going into Week 4

Oklahoma (Organization) Football College Football Playoff Sooners the Big 12 National Championship Game ESPN Playoff Predictor Ohio State Texas USC

After the first few weeks of the 2023 college football season, almost nothing about this season seems predictable. More so than in past seasons because while chaos is guaranteed in this sport, no team looks ready to dominate the rest of its schedule.

And that’s going to keep the race for the last four-team College Football Playoff interesting — at least for now.

Ahead of Week 4 games, Ohio State is still the team with the best chance at making the playoff — it started the season at the top of this category as well — according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. With a 57.7 percent chance, the Buckeyes have a slight advantage over Oklahoma’s 50.5 percent chance while being comfortably ahead of Georgia (41.3 percent) and Texas (34.3 percent) to round out the top-4 teams.

The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the Football Power Index.

Here’s a look at the top teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, per ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Tuesday.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0)

Playoff: 57.7 percent
National championship game: 36.2 percent
Win championship: 21.3 percent

2. Oklahoma Sooners (3-0)

Playoff: 50.5 percent
National championship game: 29.3 percent
Win championship: 16.1 percent

3. Georgia Bulldogs (3-0)

Playoff: 41.3 percent
National championship game: 21.6 percent
Win championship: 11.4 percent

4. Texas Longhorns (3-0)

Playoff: 34.3 percent
National championship game: 16.9 percent
Win championship: 8.2 percent

While Ohio State’s playoff chances saw a notable boost from being 45.2 percent going into Week 3, Oklahoma is the newcomer among the top four with Florida State dropping from No. 2 to No. 6 on this list.

Last week, the Sooners had a 27.5 percent chance to make the playoff, making them seventh-best. But since crushing Tulsa on Saturday, their chance has nearly doubled. Additionally, their numbers for advancing to the title game and winning it all are up from last week’s 13.5 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively.

Also notable is two Big 12 teams being among the current top-4 teams with the best playoff chances, which is a bit puzzling. The Playoff Predictor formula currently gives Oklahoma a 55.3 percent chance to win the Big 12, while Texas is at 31.0 percent, suggesting that the Sooners and Longhorns will play for the conference title and the loser will still have a reasonable chance at the playoff (assuming that’s the team’s only loss). However, this whole scenario still feels like a long shot because the Big 12 likely isn’t the first conference you think of when imagining two teams making the four-team playoff.

But perhaps the algorithm knows something we don’t, and the Big 12 will hold onto to these top chances — though USC isn’t far behind.