Let’s get one thing clear: It’s obscenely early to look at, analyze or try to predict teams’ chances at making the 2023-24 College Football Playoff. No one’s even played a game yet!
But obviously, we can’t help ourselves when it comes to super bold season predictions, coaches who might be on thin ice soon and Heisman Trophy odds — even if it’s all way too early. And the same goes for the College Football Playoff.
Entering Week 0 – in which only a handful of teams are playing, though there are some solid matchups — Ohio State has the best chance to make the playoff, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. At 74.4 percent, the Buckeyes have a notable advantage on defending national champ Georgia and Alabama at Nos. 2 and 3, respectively.
The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the Football Power Index.
Before a game has been played, here’s a look at the top teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, per ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Friday.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
- Playoff: 74.4 percent
- National championship game: 49.3 percent
- Win championship: 30.4 percent
2. Georgia Bulldogs
- Playoff: 59.0 percent
- National championship game: 34.2 percent
- Win championship: 18.5 percent
3. Alabama Crimson Tide
- Playoff: 57.1 percent
- National championship game: 34.5 percent
- Win championship: 18.7 percent
4. Texas Longhorns
- Playoff: 28.3 percent
- National championship game: 13.1 percent
- Win championship: 6.0 percent
5. Michigan Wolverines
- Playoff: 25.5 percent
- National championship game: 11.2 percent
- Win championship: 4.8 percent
6. LSU Tigers
- Playoff: 22.9 percent
- National championship game: 10.9 percent
- Win championship: 5.1 percent
7. USC Trojans
- Playoff: 22.2 percent
- National championship game: 9.3 percent
- Win championship: 3.5 percent
8. Clemson Tigers
- Playoff: 18.3 percent
- National championship game: 7.2 percent
- Win championship: 3.0 percent
9. Oklahoma Sooners
- Playoff: 12.6 percent
- National championship game: 4.5 percent
- Win championship: 1.6 percent
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Playoff: 12.2 percent
- National championship game: 4.8 percent
- Win championship: 1.9 percent
11. Penn State Nittany Lions
- Playoff: 12.0 percent
- National championship game: 4.4 percent
- Win championship: 1.6 percent
12. Oregon Ducks
- Playoff: 7.5 percent
- National championship game: 2.4 percent
- Win championship: 0.7 percent
But again, don’t put too much stock into these numbers just yet. Until a game is played, we really don’t know how these teams will perform this season. Once several games have been played and some of these teams have been tested, we’ll have a slightly clearer picture of who’s a College Football Playoff-caliber team.
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