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USA Today Sports Media Group

Sport

Michelle R. Martinelli

College Football Playoff watch: Michigan’s, TCU’s playoff chances have skyrocketed in Week 13

Michigan (Organization) TCU Football College Football Playoff Week 13 Ohio State Georgia (Organization) Tennessee (Organization)

We’re down to the last weekend of college football before the conference championship games and College Football Playoff selection. And since last week, there’s a newcomer among the top-4 teams with the best chances to make the playoff.

While Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan all won in Week 12, Tennessee — which previously had the fourth-best chance to make the playoff, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor formula — got destroyed by South Carolina and saw its playoff hopes vanish.

The Volunteers fell in the latest playoff rankings and dropped out of the top-4 teams with the best playoff chances. Undefeated TCU replaced them on this list in the No. 4 spot, and things are looking pretty good for the Horned Frogs right now.

So going into Week 13’s games, here’s a look at the top-10 teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Wednesday. The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the FPI.

1. Georgia Bulldogs (12-0)

Playoff: 98.7 percent
National championship game: 68.4 percent
Win championship: 40.1 percent

2. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0)

Playoff: 96.3 percent
National championship game: 62.9 percent
Win championship: 34.1 percent

3. Michigan Wolverines (11-0)

Playoff: 80.9 percent
National championship game: 33.8 percent
Win championship: 14.1 percent

4. TCU Horned Frogs (11-0)

Playoff: 56.6 percent
National championship game: 13.1 percent
Win championship: 3.6 percent

Most notably since last week, Michigan’s and TCU’s chances to make the playoff have skyrocketed. The Wolverines’ chance is up by 15.8 percent going into Week 13’s game against Ohio State, while the Horned Frogs’ chance — surely in large part thanks to Tennessee losing badly in Week 12 — is up 22.8 percent.

These jumps suggest a couple things. First, if TCU wins out — it has a 33.4 percent chance to do so — by beating Iowa State and then winning the Big 12 championship game, it’s likely in the playoff with a perfect 12-0 record.

But more interestingly, Michigan has a 23.5 chance to win out, which would mean beating the Buckeyes and then winning the Big Ten championship game. Ohio State has a 66.3 percent chance to win out, but obviously, either the No. 2 or No. 3 team has to lose this weekend. With both teams’ respective playoff chances being so high, it certainly seems like the loser of the rivalry game — assuming it’s not a total blowout — will still make the playoff as a one-loss not-conference champion.

Things could get more complicated, however, if LSU manages to beat Georgia in the SEC championship game. Should that unlikely scenario happen, the Tigers could become the first two-loss team in the playoff. But the Bulldogs have been so strong throughout the season that they’d probably get in too, which would likely knock the Big Ten back down to one playoff team along with TCU/Clemson/USC, depending on how their next couple weeks go.

But for right now, it’s looking like both Ohio State and Michigan will make the playoff, barring one team having a disastrous outing Saturday in Columbus.