The College Football Playoff picture is finally starting to become clear. Well, kind of clear. It’s less murky than it has been in the past several weeks when it felt like there were endless foursome combinations.
But after Week 6’s games, the teams with the best playoff chances are slowly sorting themselves out into frontrunners, bubble teams and dark-horse contenders.
And for the first time this season, Oklahoma has the best chance to make the College Football Playoff, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor algorithm. Ohio State has held the top spot for most of the season so far, and although the Buckeyes’ playoff chances remained almost identical between Week 6 and Week 7, the Sooners’ chances surged.
The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the Football Power Index.
Going into Week 7, there’s now a big gap between Oklahoma at the top and Ohio State in the No. 2 spot on this list.
Here’s a look at the top teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, per ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Thursday.
College Football Playoff frontrunners
1. Oklahoma Sooners (6-0)
- Playoff: 71.1 percent
- National championship game: 40.6 percent
- Win championship: 22.8 percent
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0)
- Playoff: 52.9 percent
- National championship game: 30.8 percent
- Win championship: 17.1 percent
3. Georgia Bulldogs (6-0)
- Playoff: 42.2 percent
- National championship game: 21.4 percent
- Win championship: 10.7 percent
4. Oregon Ducks (5-0)
- Playoff: 40.0 percent
- National championship game: 19.7 percent
- Win championship: 8.7 percent
While Oklahoma’s playoff chance saw a big boost after its Week 6 win over Texas, both Ohio State’s and Oregon’s chances remained about the same compared with last week.
Georgia, however, after stopping Kentucky last week, saw its playoff chance get about a 12 percent boost — good enough to push the Bulldogs back into the top four after they dropped to No. 6 on this list. They replace Texas, which saw its chance take a sizable hit — though the Longhorns are definitely still in the mix — after losing to the Sooners.
College Football Playoff bubble teams
5. Texas Longhorns (5-1)
- Playoff: 31.8 percent
- National championship game: 16.6 percent
- Win championship: 8.4 percent
6. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1)
- Playoff: 29.8 percent
- National championship game: 15.4 percent
- Win championship: 8.0 percent
7. Michigan Wolverines (6-0)
- Playoff: 29.1 percent
- National championship game: 13.9 percent
- Win championship: 6.9 percent
Although Texas’ chance to make the playoff dropped, Alabama’s chance is up by about four percent, and Michigan’s is up by about nine percent. The Longhorns and Crimson Tide are now the only two teams with top-10 playoff chances to have a loss at this point in the season.
College Football Playoff dark-horse contenders
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0)
- Playoff: 27.2 percent
- National championship game: 13.3 percent
- Win championship: 6.5 percent
9. Florida State (5-0)
- Playoff: 25.6 percent
- National championship game: 9.8 percent
- Win championship: 4.0 percent
10. Washington Huskies (5-0)
- Playoff: 22.0 percent
- National championship game: 9.0 percent
- Win championship: 3.5 percent
These three teams are not out of the race, but they likely need to win out — conference championships included — to have a shot at the playoff. And even then, that might not be enough. They might have to win out, plus see the Big 12 or Big Ten implode, which is totally possible still.
All other teams outside the top 10 in playoff chances currently have less than a 10 percent chance to make the playoff, including USC, North Carolina and Ole Miss.
