College Football Playoff Percentages & Bracket Predictions

After a resounding win over previously undefeated Indiana, Ohio State has all but locked up its invitation to the College Football Playoff. Penn State also inched closer to its first-ever CFP appearance after avoiding an upset with a 26-25 victory versus Big Ten-rival Minnesota on Saturday. Meanwhile, Big Ten newcomer and No.1-ranked Oregon leads the CFP rankings with a greater than 99% chance to make the College Football Playoff.

College Football Playoff Probabilities & Percentages

1. Oregon: >99%
2. Ohio State: >99%
3. Penn State: >99%
4. Notre Dame: >99%
5. Texas: >99%
6. Indiana: 93%
7. Miami: 87%
8. Georgia: 79%
9. Boise State: 69%
10. Tennessee: 60%
11. Alabama: 58%
12. SMU: 37%
13. Arizona State: 28%
14. BYU: 26%
15. Tulane: 20%

SEC Losses Open Up Possibilities For SMU & Arizona State

Teams like SMU and Boise State can guarantee themselves a spot in the College Football Playoff by winning out. Meanwhile, Arizona State has a 28% chance to earn an improbable bid to the College Football Playoff, including a 69% chance if the Sun Devils win the remaining games on their schedule. However, if Kenny Dillingham’s squad suffers an upset in the final weeks of the regular season, the Big 12 could be in jeopardy of missing out on the playoff altogether.

Will Alabama Be Able To Make The Playoff With Three Losses?

Alabama is the highest-ranked team in the country with three losses but the Crimson Tide might need some help to earn a playoff bid. Assuming that the committee rewards the Big 12 champion over a three-loss SEC team, Alabama might need another loss to Arizona State to secure its spot in the expanded format.
Predicting College Football Playoff Bracket
The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded No. 1 through No. 4 and receive a first-round bye. That means teams with the highest probability of making the playoff above won’t necessarily be the top-ranked teams heading into the playoff.

Let’s go over a potential CFP first-round bracket below:

1. Oregon (bye)
2. Texas (bye)
3. Miami (bye)
4. Boise State (bye)
5. Ohio State vs (12) Arizona State
6. Penn State vs (11) SMU
7. Notre Dame vs (10) Indiana
8. Georgia vs (9) Tennessee